Monday, May 16, 2016

1986-2016 PDX HUD 2 BR FMR vs Median Family Income: Only in Last Decade Has the FMR Growth% Exceeded the % Growth in MFI.

I dug out the Portland HUD FMR and median family income (4 person) histories and prepared a table and a graph below that show that:
  • For twenty years (1986-2006) the % growth in MFI was HIGHER than the % growth of the 2 BR FMR.
  • But, in the last decade (2006-2016) the % growth in the FMR was 7 times the % growth in median family income.
Here's a table with the relevant data

(Not shown: To match the 195% growth in FMR from 1986 to 2016, the 2016 PDX MFI would need to be at $88,700 or 21% more than the $73,300 actual 2016 MFI).

And here's a graph showing the Portland 2 BR FMR/MFI % increases by decade. 
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Compare 2 BR FMR Increases by Area Over Last 3 Decades; PDX % Increase Greater than LA Over Last 10,20, and 30 Years.

HUD has published a 2 BR FMR history from FY 1983-2006 in an Excel file HERE.

I did some calculations and created a state/area lookup table that allows you to compare for 5 areas at a time 2 BR FMR's and changes for the last three decades from among 4,700+ areas. I added a graph that displays results showing changes for the first and last areas you select in the table.  The file is HERE and embedded below. 

In the table you select an area geography from a pull down showing the state and area combination in the far left column and the results by decade are then returned for you and the graph is populated with the first and last selection you make in the table. [High and low values for each results column are color coded].

As a shortcut and in lieu of using the pull down you can type in the state name, a hyphen, and the area name like this: Michigan-Wayne County. (Most of the 4,700+ areas are county level, but many , especially in the NE, are at the town level [I count 350 areas within Massachusetts alone!]. A complete listing of areas by state is found in the lookup worksheet). You MAY have to download the file to use the pull downs. 

Alternately you can use the filters in the Data worksheet to select any combination of areas or values you like. (Note that the data worksheet only contains values for 2016,1996, and 1986).

My default table for Multnomah County (Portand metro) shows that for 2 BR FMR's :

  • The % increase is larger than the Los Angeles county increase for the last 10, 20, and 30 years. 
  • The % increase is smaller than King County, Wa (Seattle) for the last last 10, 20, and 30 years. [The King county % increase is the highest increase over the last 10 years, and the last 30 years among the 5 areas I have selected by default, which includes San Francisco].
  • The 2016 FMR ($1,208) is now higher than in Cook County, Illinois (Chicago) ($1,176), but it was lower in 2006, 1996, and 1986.
  • From 2006-2016 the FMR increased faster (67%) than in San Francisco County in California (49%).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Friday, April 22, 2016

Excel of the Barry Apartment Report Listing of Proposed, Under Construction, and Recently Completed PDX Apartments.

I highly recommend the Barry Apartment reports web site as it provides a wealth of data about apartment sales and construction activity in the Portland metro area. 

Their Spring 2016 Construction reports were recently published; a summary and a complete listing are available in PDF formats. (Their Spring 2016 Apartment Report is also out HERE).

I took the complete listing and was able to paste it into Excel HERE and embedded below. I added a pivot table worksheets and one column based on their Notes column to ID projects identified as subsidized or homeless or related to the Portland Housing Bureau. 

Workbook opens to a summary by phase and by city and on second page by subarea. You likely will have to scroll right or down to see all the data.

[I note some minor unit count/project count discrepancies between my Excel and source document, but have been unable to find any errors in my Excel doc to date]. 

Some observations on completed, proposed, and under construction units:

  • 70% of units are located in the City of Portland
  • 28% of the units are located in the near Westside of Portland
  • There are 566 total units shown as subsidized.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Monday, April 18, 2016

4 Presidential Candidates: Their Income Tax Housing Subsidies VS. HUD Average Expenditure Per Voucher Household.

To celebrate tax day I thought it might be interesting to see how the current presidential candidates benefit from housing tax deductions for mortgage interest and real estate taxes compared to what HUD spent on average for voucher holders in their states. 

The Excel workbook HERE and embedded below contains a graph on page one with an abbreviated table and a complete set of data on page 2. (You may have to scroll or download the Excel file to see the second page).

I pulled the MID and real estate tax figures for 2014 from the candidate's posted tax returns. I had to estimate those figures as a percentage of the total itemized deductions for both Cruz and Kasich as they have NOT included their itemized deduction worksheets in their posted returns. I used 67% the same percentage as Sanders. And of course, Trump data is NOT included as his returns are not posted on line.

I pulled the HUD average voucher holder for each candidate's state from the HUD Picture of Subsidized Households.

Some observations

  • The lowest income of the candidates was $205K (Sanders) but ALL received substantial housing tax subsidies. (The average voucher income in these 4 states ranged from $11k-$16k).
  • The range of monthly subsidies vs the federal income tax system varied from Sanders receiving  $424 per month to Clinton who received a housing subsidy of $4,351 per month.  
  • The candidates housing tax subsidies were from 54% (Sanders) to 474% (Clinton) of the average HUD expenditure for voucher holders in their state. All candidates except Sanders got MORE in housing tax subsidies than the HUD subsidy received by the average voucher holder in their state.
  • My computations only calculate federal tax subsidies for housing, candidates in states with income taxes also likely receive state income tax benefits for the MID and real estate taxes.  
  • Some of the housing tax subsidies likely came from second homes.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.