Wednesday, October 7, 2020

National Housing Finance Agency Study: Oregon's Share of Renter HH Facing Eviction and Unable to Pay Rent Are Substantial, but Lower than National Averages.

The Council of State Housing Agencies recently published a report that attempts to estimate the number of renter households who are unable to pay rent and who may face eviction in January 2021. 

That study is HERE

I extracted the state level data, added counts of all renter households and some calculations, and prepared the PDF table HERE and embedded below. 

Some observations: 

  1. Using the HIGHER bound estimates in the report, Oregon is projected to have 150,000 renter households unable to pay their rent. The report projects that 90,000 renter households in Oregon will face eviction in January 2021. 
  2. On a percentage basis this would mean that 25% of Oregon's 612,227 estimated renter households are projected to be unable to pay their rent and 15% of these households are projected to face eviction in January 2021. 
  3. Those percentages of renter household are large, but they are LOWER than the national averages of 32% (can't pay rent) and 19% (facing January 2021 eviction).
  4. Oregon's state ranking on its share of renter households who can't pay the rent is 45th and 44th for its share of renter households facing eviction.  

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Oregon County Unemployment Insurance Through August: $4.2 Billion Paid But Weekly Avg Dropped 45%/$397 from July to August.

 The two page PDF file HERE and embedded below includes county level data, including

  • A graph showing the average weekly benefit for July and August
  • A table showing unemployment insurance benefits paid by month through August

Some observations:

  1. The $4.2 billion likely does not include PUA. OED has previously indicated that $143 million in PUA was paid through August 29th.
  2. Multnomah county residents received 27% of the state total. That's $175 million in August and $1.1+ billion through August. 
  3. The average weekly benefit dropped by 45%/397 from July to August, from $897 to $482 (primarily because of loss of $600 supplement).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Monday, September 28, 2020

Expiration of $600 UI Supplement Help Drop the Average Oregon UI Payment in August by 45% VS. July, An Average UI Loss of $1,529 Per Month.

The total amount of UI benefits paid in August vs July in Oregon were dramatically reduced, from $1,043,941,534 to $607,134,962. That's a loss of nearly $437 million in one month.

At the same time the total monthly number of UI payments increased by 7%, from 1,188,179 to 1,258,384. 

This meant that the average $879 UI WEEKLY payment during July declined by 45%/$397 in August to $482. 

Extrapolated to a full month, this would mean that the average UI payment dropped from $3,559 in July to $2,030 in August, a decline of $1,529.  

The likely prime reason for the decline was the expiration of the $600 weekly PUC supplement at the end of July. The July to August decline in average payments would likely have been higher except July already had one week where the $600 supplement was no longer available.

Data for this analysis is from OED PUB 924 monthly reports; as best as I can tell these reports do NOT include PUA unemployment insurance benefits. Inclusion of those PUA benefits would increase the monthly totals, but likely further decrease the average amount per payment as PUA generally has a lower weekly benefit that regular unemployment insurance.  

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

Wednesday, September 23, 2020

My Senate Interim Labor Committee Testimony on Four Successes Overlooked in the Delivery of Oregon Unemployment Insurance.

Yesterday I submitted testimony to the Oregon Senate Interim Labor and Business Committee on four overlooked successes in the delivery of unemployment insurance by the Oregon Employment Department. 

That testimony is HERE and embedded below.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

Monday, September 21, 2020

Oregon Recipiency of Regular Unemployment Insurance Sets Another Record in August.

The release of August unemployment and unemployment insurance data produced more good news for Oregon.

The 12 month moving average of  unemployed claiming continued regular unemployment insurance divided by the 12 month moving average of unemployed increase from 70.2% to 75.8%. 

This August "Recipiency Rate" is more than double the 34.2% rate in December 2019 and the highest ever in the 45 years where data is available. 

The one page PDF graph and table is HERE, and embedded below. In includes annual data for CY 2015-CY 2019 for comparison.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog