Thursday, March 1, 2012

Corrected: GSE CY 2010: Data for 374 Metro Areas, Including 6 In Oregon.

Correction:
I inadvertently included "Not in Metro Location"  in the Metro rankings found in Table 6. Eliminating those areas from Metro rankings changes the total metro ranks to 374, and increased relative rankings for all metro areas by one. 

I have made changes in Table 6 of the Picture of GSE Assisted Households, CY 2010 and also changes in the text of the post below. Portland now ranks as 19th and Seattle 8th in the number of GSE loans by metro area. 
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I have added three new metropolitan area focused tables to the link in the right pane, A Picture of GSE Assisted Households, CY 2010. These tables are:
  • Table 5: GSE CY 2010 Alpha Metro Loan $$ and Counts.
  • Table 6: GSE CY 2010 Ranked Metro Loan $$ and Counts.
  • Table 7: GSE CY 2010 Oregon Metro Loan $$ and Counts.
Some observations: 
  1. The Portland metro area ranked 19th in the number of GSE loans, at 58,645 loans / $12.6 billion. [In 2010, the Portland metro population ranked 23rd in the country].
  2. The Portland metro area ranked HIGHER than Detroit's 52,355 in GSE loan purchases, even though the Detroit metro area had a 2010 population that was nearly double (93% larger) the size of the Portland metro area. [Detroit metro pop 4,296,250 vs 2,226,009 for Portland ].
  3. Seattle, ranked 15th in 2010 metro population, also ranked higher at 8th in the number of GSE area loans by metro area [ 96,868 loans/ $25.4 billion].
  4. The designator "Not a Metropolitan Location" totaled 539,497 loans and $84.9 billion. These are loans that would NOT appear in HMDA data as they are outside metro areas. [Not shown in these tables, I count 12,665 Oregon loans that are coded as "Not a Metro location"; these loans totaled $2.198 billion].
  5. Within Oregon, Bend and Medford (hard hit by foreclosures) still had a combined 7,758 GSE loans/ $1.5 billion. 

Notes: 
I would NOT print the entire tables 5 and 6 unless necessary, they are 14 -15 pages each.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Fannie, Freddie, and FHA In Oregon, CY 2010: Ho Hum, Another $21 Billion Year.

Readers may recall a September 2010 post HERE that showed an Oregon county breakdown of $21 Billion in Fannie, and Freddie AND FHA loans for CY 2008. 

Because it requires so much work to produce this data, I skipped CY 2009 but have just added two additional tables to the PDF file linked in right pane of the blog; A Picture of GSE Assisted Households, CY 2010.

Look for These Two New Tables:
  • Table 3: Loan Counts by Oregon County for Fannie, Freddie AND FHA, Including Loan Purpose and Shares
  • Table 4: Loan $$ by Oregon County for Fannie, Freddie AND FHA, Including Loan Purpose and Shares

Some Observations:
  1. During CY 2010 in Oregon there were $21.35 Billion in loans acquired or insured by the GSE's and FHA.
  2. The loans went to 104,000 households.
  3. Among the three agencies, FHA's share of all loans was 19%, but it had a much larger 43% share of home purchase loans. 
  4. Refinances made up 82% of the GSE business in Oregon during CY 2010. 

A Multiple Year Look at Federally Supported Home Ownership Program in Oregon:
Last 3 Years: More than $65 Billion; Last 4 Years: Estimated $80 Billion.

Federally supported home loan commitments in Oregon were in excess of $65 billion for the 3 years from 2008-2010 assuming: 
  • That GSE and FHA volume during 2009 was roughly the same as 2008 and 2010.
  • That VA and RDA loans totaled $1 billion annually.
Assuming GSE and FHA loan volume was somewhat down during CY 2011, a working estimate is that for the last 4 calendar years federally supported home loans in Oregon totaled close to $80 Billion.

Putting an Oregon annual $20 Billion, 100,000 GSE, FHA, VA, and RDA Assisted Households A Year Estimate in Perspective:
  • The federal Consolidated Federal Funds Report shows that federally supported Small Business Loans (CFDA 59.012) in Oregon totaled only $104 million during FY 2010.
  • CBPP estimates HERE that there were 54,000 federally assisted renter households in Oregon in 2010, 75 years after the beginning of these programs.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog
 


CRS Report on Federal Land Ownership

Looks like Oregon @53% is 5th in % of land in state owned by feds, CRS report is HERE

Who knew: 48% of California land owned by feds.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

1st Data Tables Created Using New GSE CY 2010 Database: State Distribution of $1 TRILLION in GSE Single Family Loan Acquisitions.

I am pleased to note that with the significant assistance from my friend Roberta Ando (also a retired HUD Oregon Field Office Director) I have been able to create the first national MS Access databases for ALL single family loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during CY 2010, down to the census tract level. 

These databases form a new home owner/buyer focused" Picture of GSE Assisted Households" very similar to the periodic HUD Picture of Subsidized Households database and can be updated annually (more about that below).

Each of the 4.8 million loan level records in the databases contain 39 fields of data, so there are more than
187 million pieces of data in these two databases.(The original data came from FHFA in text files and required many, many tweaks and lots of computing power to get it into useable MS Access formats).
 
Unlike HMDA Data, These New GSE SF Databases Cover the Entire Country, NOT Just Metro Areas
 

Unlike HMDA data, these newly created databases cover the entire country and NOT just metropolitan areas; they also include a first time home buyer field not found in HMDA. A complete list of data elements in the database can be found HERE.

Future Plans



I will be releasing additional analysis of the GSE 2010 data in the coming days and weeks and am shopping for a national home to make these large Fannie and Freddie MS Access databases available for download and analysis by others. 

Because the GSE data is now in MS Access format, users can filter records and export files to MS Excel for further analysis or use database tools in Excel to directly query the MS Access databases. 


Maps Possible Too
Some users may also choose to convert the data tables they create into maps to help illustrate the geographic location of GSE loan purchases; for example, a map by state, metro area, county, or census tract of all GSE Hispanic first time home buyer loan counts and dollars.

Updating Annually Possible IF FHFA Cooperates
I will also be following up to encourage greater transparency from FHFA to make this annual public database available in MS Access formats so that the public can actually see who is benefiting from these loans [FHFA currently releases data in text form ONLY]. 

While I am pleased that Roberta and I have been able to put together these databases this year, there is no reason why FHFA should not be expected to post these databases in MS Access format annually.


All PDF tables I create from these databases will be available in a link in the right pane, Picture of GSE Assisted Households, CY 2010.

Today's First Analysis: 

State Distribution by Loan Counts and Shares of $1 Trillion in Loan Acquisitions for 4.8 Million Households
The two tables in the Picture of GSE Assisted Households, CY 2010 PDF file HERE show:
  • Table 1: An alpha listing by state for Fannie, Freddie and both GSE's showing both loan counts and loan $$ [unpaid principal amount of the loans at the time they were purchased by the GSE's].
  • Table 2: A sorted state listing of the highest to lowest shares/%'s of the total national loan counts.
Two Observations From Tables 1 and 2:
  • Five States (California, Illinois,Texas, New York, Florida) Accounted for 40% of CY 2010 GSE Loan $$ and 34% of all GSE SF Loans; 
  • Oregon Had $17 Billion in GSE Loans to 84,000 Families, 1.7% of the national GSE Loan $$

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.


Friday, February 24, 2012