Monday, September 23, 2019

1990-2017: Oregon Lost 113K Rental Units with Inflation Adjusted Rents Below $600; In 2017 It Ranked 40th in Share of Units at this Rent Level.

Last week the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies published a working paper HERE showing  state level estimated changes in rental units at various rent levels from 1990-2017.  (The paper details sources and methods used to make these calculations).

Table 3 of the working paper shows that from 1990-2017 there was an estimated national loss of 3,991,906 units priced below an inflation adjusted monthly rent of $600 , declining from 46% of all rental units in 1990 to 25% in 2017.  Table 4 shows that during that same period nationally there were 10,917,700 units (rounded) ADDED

For units priced below an inflation adjusted $1,000 the national estimate in Table 3 is that 612,663 units were lost, declining from 78% of all units in 1990 to 60% in 2017. 

I took Table 3 data and prepared the PDF HERE and embedded below, focusing on the change in the share of units priced below an inflation adjusted $600 and $1,000 and the sorted state rankings (from worst to best in terms of their share of rental units affordable at these rent levels) in 1990 and in 2017. (My PDF is formatted in landscape so you may have to scroll right to see all columns).

For Oregon 
Units Priced Below Inflation Adjusted $600
CHANGE 1990-2017: Loss of 113,291 units. 
(Note that Table 4 shows a total INCREASE of 163,600 rental units (rounded) in Oregon for the same period).
1990: 51% of all rental units; Oregon ranked 28th. 
2017 16% of all rental units; Oregon ranking dropped to 40th.

Units Priced Below Inflation Adjusted $1,000
CHANGE 1990-2017: Loss of 52,236 units. 
(Note again that Table 4 shows a total INCREASE of 163,600 rental units (rounded) in Oregon for the same period).
1990: 90% of all rental units; Oregon ranked 26th 
2017 56% of all rental units; Oregon ranking dropped 37th

Note that Oregon had a higher share of rental units at both rent levels in 1990 that the national total, but a lower share in 2017. 



Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

2017-2019 Statewide Homeless Point in Time Changes: Balance of State and Lane County Reported Increases in Contrast to Portland Metro and Other CoC Improvements.

In my prior post I focused on the 2019 PIT Oregon homeless data, with a special focus on homeless children, and especially unsheltered homeless children.

This post will present data on Oregon and Oregon CoC PIT population changes from 2017-2019, including a focus on the population of homeless children and unsheltered homeless children. 

Focus on 4 Geographic Groupings
Some observations based on the first table below that shows 2017-2019 changes by 4 geographic groupings: 
  1. Statewide, 
  2. 3 County Portland metro area
  3. Outside of 3 county Portland metro, 
  4. The Balance of State Continuum of Care. 
Observations:
  • Total homeless population increased by 14%/1,923 despite a decrease in 3 county Portland metro (4%/202). [Lane county reported a substantial increase of 42%/636 people, as did the Balance of State CoC at 23%/1,308 people].
  • Total unsheltered homeless population increased by 27%, but increase was 5%/109 in Portland metro vs 37%/2,066 outside of 3 county Portland metro area. [Lane county reported a substantial increase of 63%/630 people, as did the Balance of State CoC at 34%/1,270 people].
  • Total homeless population, children under 18 decreased by 1%/39, led by a decrease in 3 county Portland metro (43%/247). This statewide decrease occurred despite a reported increase of 16%/266 in the Balance of the State CoC.
  • Total unsheltered homeless population, children under 18 increased by 7%, but 3 county Portland metro had a decrease of 76%/115. NOTE that the Balance of the State CoC reported an increased of 21%/248 unsheltered children. This drove an increase of 16%/224 in the counties outside of the 3 county Portland metro area. 
Note: The substantial increases reported by the Balance of State Continuum vs decreases reported by most other Oregon CoC's suggest that the counting protocols may be different. The 28 county scope of the Balance of State CoC likely adds complexity and increases the difficulty in getting a uniform count. 

Details for Each Oregon Continuum of Care:

The 2 PAGE PDF HERE and below has ALL of the same data broken out for these geographies AND also each Continuum of Care and includes PIT counts for both 2017 and 2019.  Cells with green fill in the first table indicate % reductions BETTER than the statewide change. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog,

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

2019 Oregon Homeless Point in Time Counts Shows Wide Variance in Unsheltered Children Per 10,000.

Thanks to cooperation from multiple Continuum of Care organizations across Oregon I was able to combine their 2019 Point in Time data (submitted to HUD at the end of April) and put together the first statewide snapshot of the 2019 PIT count of the homeless population (not households), including local data.  

While my analysis of 2019 PIT counts includes data for total homelessness, my focus is on child homelessness and especially UNSHELTERED child homelessness. 


Outside of the Three Portland Metro CoC Counties The 2019 Unsheltered Child Homeless Rates Per 10,000 Children Was 33 Times the rate in the 3 County Portland metro area.


The graph pasted below shows, by CoC and various geographic groupings, the difference in the rate of child unsheltered homelessness per 10,000 children in the 2019 PIT count.  

Statewide the 2019 count showed that 19 out of 10,000 children were homeless and unsheltered.The graph however illustrates that the reported rate of unsheltered child homelessness is MUCH higher outside of the Portland metro area:  33 unsheltered homeless children per 10,000 children outside of the 3 county Portland metro area vs 1 unsheltered homeless child per 10,000 children INSIDE these 3 counties. 

The balance of the state CoC rate of unsheltered children per 1,000 is the highest of all CoC's at 43 per 1,000 children; this also increases the state rate per 1,000 and the rate outside of the 3 county Portland metro area. 


The challenge of uniform data collection from 28 counties in the Balance of State CoC seems likely to account for some of the significant variance in rates of reported unsheltered children less than 18. 

The table pasted below shows the population counts supporting the graph appearing earlier in this post. 


The 2019 PIT table shows that the count of unsheltered homeless children outside the 3 county Portland metro area was 1,604, while inside the 3 counties the total unsheltered homeless children count was only 37So, for every 1 unsheltered homeless child counted in the 3 county Portland metro area there were 43 unsheltered children counted outside the Portland metro area. 

My next post will present a more detailed look at Oregon and Oregon CoC CHANGES in the PIT count from 2017-2019, Including a focus on homeless children AND unsheltered homeless children.

GRAPH:

TABLE: 


Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Thursday, August 29, 2019

FY 2020 HUD FMR's Out: Portland Metro 2BR FMR Up 3.8% to $1,495.

HUD FY 2020 FMR data is available HERE

My 3 page PDF HERE (and embedded below) has 2 BR FMR history for all Oregon counties back to FY 2010.  

For FY 2020-FY 2019, Gilliam had the highest Oregon increase of 22.4%/$171 to $936.

Portland Metro
Portland metro 2 BR FMR is up by 3.7%/$54 to $1,495. 
Total Portland metro 2 BR increase from FY 2010 to FY 2020 is 78%/$656 from $839 to $1,495. 
Graph below shows annual % change for Portland metro 2 BR FMR's from FY 2010 to FY 2020.




Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

3 County Portland Metro Homeless Point in Time Counts 2017 v. 2019: Child Homeless Pop and Especially Unsheltered Child Pop Impressively Down.

I recently noticed a significant drop in the count of unsheltered children in the Multnomah County/Portland/Gresham C of Care when comparing the 2019 to 2017 HUD point in time (PIT) homeless counts. 

In 2019 the PIT count for this CoC count showed only 6 unsheltered homeless children (less than age 18) out of a universe of 192 homeless children under age 18.  This was down from a total universe of 385 homeless children/51 unsheltered homeless children in the 2017 PIT count. 

That prompted me to dig out 2017-2019 comparisons for three metro Portland counties, pasted below in a table format. 

First, Some Observations:
Total homeless:  Decreased in all counties, 4% average decrease. 
Unsheltered homeless: Increased 5% overall; Multnomah CoC up 22%, while Clackamas and Washington CoC's had 30%+ decreases
Total Homeless Children (Less than age 18):  Decreased by 43%; Clackamas CoC had lowest decrease at 12%, Multnomah CoC the highest at 50%

Unsheltered Homeless Children: 
Decreased by 76%; Clackamas CoC had lowest decrease at 62%, Multnomah the highest at 88%. 

NOTE: As shown in the table in 2019 these three counties had a PIT count of 37 homeless unsheltered children and a total of 326 homeless children. 

The most recent 2018 PSU population data for the three counties estimates the total population for children under the age of 18 as 379,731. 

That would be a rate of 1 unsheltered homeless child and 9 total homeless children for every 10,000 children in these three counties. 

I also suspect that the rate of Portland metro child homelessness and unsheltered child homelessness is substantially better than the rates for areas outside of the Portland metro area.

I DO recognize that the HUD PIT count has it's limits. The PIT is a snapshot in time survey and not a complete census, so it does not capture the total number of homeless households/persons over a longer time period. 

Just this week, PSU released a report estimating that there was a total of 38,000 people who experienced homelessness in the Portland metro area sometime during 2017; the metro Portland homeless 2017 PIT count was much smaller--5,218. 

Child homeless counts that use Department of Education definitions are significantly higher in part because the definition of homeless is substantially broader than those used in the HUD PIT count. (Those higher counts are also used in the PSU report).

Nonetheless, I think it is useful to note trends in PIT counts and rates when new PIT surveys are completed. The 2019 PIT reduction in child homelessness and unsheltered child homelessness in the 3 county Portland metro area is to be commended. 



Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.