Thursday, October 26, 2017

City of Portland Affordable Housing CET Collections Are Lagging Projections.

When the City of Portland Affordable Housing CET was enacted in August of 2016 an accompanying exhibit showed projected annual CET collections at $8.085 million, based on the preceding 5 year average of development activity. 

Data I have received from the City of Portland shows that collections to date are lagging below that historical projection.   


  • For the first 11 months of CET adoption, from August of 2016 to June 2017, total collections were only $1.897 million. 
  • For the first three months of FY 2018 (July 2017 -September2017 ) total CET collections were $2.525 million. 
  • So for the first 14 months total collections were only $4.422 million vs the previously projected $8.085 million projection for 12 months.  
  • However, IF collections in first quarter of FY 2018 are annualized then total FY 2018 collections would be $10.102 M, but still only $12.12 Million for 23 months (or an average of $6.086 Million annualized for the first two years, or 25% below the projections based on the preceding 5 year average).
One possible reason for the lag in collections may be the exclusion from the CET of projects with permits issued before the CET effective date, even though those projects may take months or years to reach construction start.  

Portland's collections experience may be useful for other jurisdictions considering a CET , including Euguene and Washington County. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

Monday, October 16, 2017

Correcton: Oregon 2016 HMDA Loan Originations and GSE Loan Purchase Data for African Americans in One Excel Workbook.

Correction: I noticed a formula error in the workbook that impacts only the HMDA data. Instead of 1 in 1,000 home purchase loans made to African Americans, there were 10 out of 1,000 home purchase loans made to African Americans. I changed the workbook and text below accordingly.
---

The 19th annual African American homeownership fair coming up on on Saturday October 28th provides an opportunity to share recently released 2016 HMDA and GSE loan data loans originated or purchased by the GSE's in Oregon. 

The Excel workbook I created HERE ( and embedded below) has all of the combined data and includes pivot tables to make exploration of the data easier. 

Key metrics for Oregon 2016 GSE loans: 

  1. There were a total of 81,130 loans purchased by the GSE's in Oregon.  
  2. 12,949 of these GSE loans went to first time home buyers.
  3. Of the 12,949 first time home buyer loans 160 went to African American borrowers or co-borrowers. [2016 ACS estimates 18,097 African American renter households and 7,937 African American home owners in Oregon]. 
  4. This means that for every 1,000 Oregon FTHB GSE loans in 2016, 12 went to African American borrowers or co-borrowers. 

Key metrics from Oregon 2016 HMDA data (HMDA data does not include a first time home buyer data field):

  1. Lenders originated 136,083 loans in Oregon. 
  2. Of those a total of 63,649 were home purchase loans.
  3. Of the 63,649 home purchase loans, 664 went to African American borrowers or co-borrowers. 
  4. This means that for every 1,000 Oregon home purchase loans originated in 2016, 10 went to African American borrowers or co-borrowers. 




Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.


Monday, October 2, 2017

BIG data:Census tract loan level data for 150,000 GSE loans in Oregon 2015-2016, Includes 24,000 first time homebuyer loans


Using newly published data have constructed a large (75MB) Excel workbook for download HERE that contains census tract loan level details for 150,000 + loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in Oregon in 2015 and 2016. 

Unlike HMDA data this dataset includes a field that identifies 24,000+ loans to first time homebuyers, and it covers the entire state, NOT just metro areas. 

The workbook contains multiple worksheets for both 2016 and 2015:

GSE first time home buyer data (6 worksheets)
  • A metro summary table of Black first time homebuyers for both 2015 and 2016. (In 2016 this table shows that out of every 1,000 first time home buyer loans purchased by the GSE's in Oregon 14 went to black borrowers or co-borrowers). 
  • A metro summary table of Hispanic time homebuyers for both 2015 and 2016.  (In 2016 this table shows that out of every 1,000 first time home buyer loans purchased by the GSE's in Oregon 59 went to Hispanic borrowers or co-borrowers). 
  • First time homebuyer pivot tables for 2015 and for 2016.
  • All first time home buyer data for 2015 and 2016.

All GSE loan data (4 worksheets)
  • Pivot tables of all GSE loans for 2015 and 2016.
  • All GSE loan data for 2015 and 2016. 
A field listing worksheet.
A worksheet with select GSE field codes [ used in formulas to add names instead of fields to data worksheets].

The 2016 data dictionary for this GSE data is HERE.  
Note that for loans shown for the Portland metro area, loans in Clark County WA. are NOT included. 

As an aside, this annual GSE source data is now readily available in MS Access format thanks to support from Senator Merkley's now retired Senior Advisor Will White.  

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Friday, September 29, 2017

New Oregon Loan Origination Excel Workbook With Both 2015 AND JUST Released 2016 HMDA Data.

I have constructed a new Excel workbook with a pivot table that allows users to analyze more than 250,000 Oregon residential HMDA loan originations from CY 2015 and newly released CY HMDA 2016 data. 

The pivot table is set up by default to see (by Oregon metro area) loans originated by race and ethnicity, by source (conventional, FHA etc) and loan purpose (refinance, home improvement, and home purchase). Note that Portland metro data includes ONLY loans from Oregon counties, and not Clark County, Wa. 

Changing the "as of year" at the top of the pivot table allows a quick comparisons between years for the same set of data. (Screen shot pasted below shows location of this field at the top of the Pivot table).

The "Property Type Name" data field allows users to focus on manufactured, 1-4 family, or multifamily dwellings.

The workbook also contains a summary of 2016 and 2015 home purchase originations by metro area and a worksheet that shows all of the 78 fields in the HMDA database and web links to the 2015 and 2016 HMDA data I downloaded. 

This LARGE (100MB) Excel workbook is available for download HERE




Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog





Thursday, September 21, 2017

Corrected--2010-2016: In All But 4 States % Increase in Renter Median Income HIGHER than % Increase in Owner Occupied Median HH Income.

Correction: In 4 states (Iowa, Louisiana, Nebraska, and New Jersey) from 2010-2016 the % increase in renter median HH income was NOT as much as the % increase in owner occupied median HH income. 
---
Legal size 3 page PDF is HERE and embedded below has the details (you may have to download to see all columns).

Oregon has moved from the 27th (2010) to the 22nd (2016) highest rank of % of renter HH median income to owner occupied median HH income.  Unlike 2010, Oregon's median renter income in 2016 is marginally higher than median renter HH income for the US ($37,322 for Oregon, $37,264 for the US)

But, in both the US and Oregon in 2016 renter median HH income is STILL only 51% of owner occupied median HH income. 

(The 2010 and 2016 1 year ACS table used for these calculations was B 25119).  



Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog