Thursday, September 21, 2017

Corrected--2010-2016: In All But 4 States % Increase in Renter Median Income HIGHER than % Increase in Owner Occupied Median HH Income.

Correction: In 4 states (Iowa, Louisiana, Nebraska, and New Jersey) from 2010-2016 the % increase in renter median HH income was NOT as much as the % increase in owner occupied median HH income. 
Legal size 3 page PDF is HERE and embedded below has the details (you may have to download to see all columns).

Oregon has moved from the 27th (2010) to the 22nd (2016) highest rank of % of renter HH median income to owner occupied median HH income.  Unlike 2010, Oregon's median renter income in 2016 is marginally higher than median renter HH income for the US ($37,322 for Oregon, $37,264 for the US)

But, in both the US and Oregon in 2016 renter median HH income is STILL only 51% of owner occupied median HH income. 

(The 2010 and 2016 1 year ACS table used for these calculations was B 25119).  

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

W Select County Data 2016-2010: Value of Oregon Owner Occupied Homes Increased by $58 Billion, Avg Home Values Increased by $52k.

The table pasted below shows that Oregon total home values increased by $58 Billion from 2010-2016, with the average home value reaching $331K, an increase in the average home value of $52k/19%. 

The table includes select county data; Multnomah county saw an increase of $18.4 billion in home values, and the average home value increased by $98k/31% to $414k. 

The ACS tables used for these calculations are included in the table.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Monday, September 18, 2017

A Belated Congratulatory Note.

Over the last year I've had a hip replaced and last week corrective surgery on the same hip. As a result my ability to participate in person at affordable housing events has been limited. I am hopeful that will change but it will take a while as I rehab.

While I would have preferred to say this in person I did want to congratulate every one of those advocates who made the last year the most successful year for affordable housing in Oregon in my memory ( and I'm ancient-have been involved in Oregon affordable housing issues for 37 years).

There is still a lot of work to be done, but with your continued work I'm sure more progress is on the horizon. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Some big jumps in FY2018 HUD Oregon 2 Bedroom FMR's; $88 bump in PDX to $1,330, 12.6% in Deschutes.

Two pics pasted below show 2 BR rents by county from FY 2010-2018, % annual changes, and % changes from 2010-2018.  

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Monday, August 28, 2017

New Economic Forecast: Home Price Increases Continue to Outpace Wage Increases, Gap Between Qualifying and Actual Incomes Grow.

Readers may recall my earlier post HERE showing the projected impacts on home purchase affordability using the Feb. 2017 Oregon Economic Forecast data for wage increases and home price increases. 

With the recently released August Economic Forecast update I plugged in the new projections and they worsen the affordability outlook from my prior analysis.   I have pasted below the updated analysis and the earlier analysis so you can see the differences. 

The main take away is that the revised forecast has bumped the 2022 gap between projected income and required income to qualify for an 80% loan from $7,500 to $9,600. The downpayment required also increases from $93,600 to $94,600.

Note also that the 2018 median sales price for Portland is projected at $380,000. The July 2017 actual median sales price already exceeds that at $395,000 and is $378,000 for the year to date. So, barring a price drop or no increase in home prices the gap between income and sales prices will exceed even the updated projection for 2018. 

Note ALSO that both projections assume a 20% down payment. IF the down payment % is less [and most down payments ARE less than 20%) this means that required income also increases (as the loan amount increases) and gap between projected income and qualifying income grows even larger. 

The current projection:

The earlier projection:

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog