Monday, November 4, 2019

FY 2019-2025: Latest Treasury Mortgage Interest Tax Expenditure Projection is $515 Billion/69% LESS than Projection Made in Pre Tax Reform FY 2017; Oregon Moving in Opposite Direction.

A year ago I did a post HERE that compared FY 2018-FY 2025 Treasury projected federal tax expenditures for the federal mortgage interest deduction.  That FY 2020 projection was that the federal MID tax expenditure would decline by $527 billion /64% over that time period vs the projection made in FY 2017 (prior to tax reform). 

Treasury has updated their tax expenditure projections for FY 2021 (HERE) and I have prepared a new comparison for the FY 2019-2025 period, 1 year shorter than the time period I used last year. 

For the shorter FY 2019-FY 2025 time period the MID expenditure is projected to decline by $515 Billion/69% to $227 billion using the latest projection (FY 2021) vs. the pre tax reform FY 2017 projected MID tax expenditure of $741 Billion for the same time period. 

For THIS year (FY 2020) the most recent MID tax expenditure projection is $27 billion vs a projection of $91 billion made in FY 2017--that's a one year reduction of $64 billion/70.4%.

The one page PDF HERE and embedded below has graphs that show annual and total federal MID tax expenditure comparisons from FY 2019-FY 2025. 

Oregon is Moving in the Opposite Direction; Using 70% Rate of Federal MID Reduction  $339 Million in Annual Savings Would be Possible .
Note: As I pointed out in my post last year HERE, in contrast to the direction of federal MID tax expenditures, Oregon MID tax expenditure projections were UP in the latest Oregon tax expenditure report. 

IF the most recent annual projected OREGON MID tax expenditure of $485 million was reduced by 70%, that would produce $339 million in annual savings that could be used for other programs, including targeted housing programs.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

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