Thursday, August 5, 2021

My Analysis of New Regulated Housing Inventory Data from Metro: Since 2017 the Reported Portland Metro Oregon Increase in 30% MFI Units Was 234 Units.

Metro staff has provided me with the updated 2020 regional regulated housing inventory data that is required biannually in April by the Metro functional plan

Metro has not yet published a summary of this data, so this is the first public posting of the data as well as the first public analysis. 

There are two tables in the Metro data sent to me. The first "Main" table provides exstensive project level data including geographic information. The second "Unit" table provides unit level affordability data by bedroom size and type. 

The total regulated unit counts in the two tables are different because the unit level affordability data is not available for all projects. 

Metro's last report on housing inventory was published in early 2019 and focused on the regional regulated housing inventory as of 2017. Their 2017 PDF report can be found HERE

I have created an Excel file HERE that includes the main and unit worksheets from the 2017 and 2020 inventory reports. (Likely Metro will label the latest report "2019" instead of 2020 to follow the biannual report cycle, but the inventory has properties with dates well past 2019). 

I also merged these two worksheets for both time periods so that I could link the count of units by affordability level to specific geographies. 

A complete list of all worksheets is included in the READ ME worksheet. For MOST users the summary worksheets and the merged worksheets will be the most useful. Some of the worksheets include formulas and lookups and may be useful to those with more experience and Excel skills. Pivot tables of merged data allow customized views of the data. A Data Fields worksheet lists all of the data fields available in the merged, main, and unit worksheets. 

The first summary worksheet I created show unit county counts by affordability level and the changes from 2017-2020. These counts and include both Oregon and Washington counts, with a subtotal for Oregon. 

Oregon Summary

The second summary worksheet is OREGON ONLY, A PDF of that summary is HERE and embedded below. 

The first two sections of the table are focused on the change in units with affordability below 30% MFI, then ALL units below 60% MFI (using the unit table). The 3rd section of this worksheet is focused on changes regulated units (using the Main tables). 

In the unit table

  • My 2020 count of Oregon Portland metro units with affordability restrictions at or below 30% MFI income totals 6,067 versus 5,833 in 2017. That’s an increase of 234 units or 4 %.
  • My 2020 count of Oregon Portland metro units with affordability restrictions at or below 60% a median income totals 32,187 versus 31,089 in 2017. That’s an increase of 1,098 units or 3.5%.

In the main table 

  • My 2020 count of Oregon units reported as regulated is 39,252 versus 38,452 in 2017. That’s an increase of 800 units or 2.1%

Notably, the increase in affordability unit counts in the unit table is MORE than the increase in the regulated unit counts in the main table. 

This suggests that the 2020 inventory is capturing more affordability data from the same projects than previously. (One of the worksheets in the Excel file shows that there were 14 new projects in the 2020 main table and only 7 projects in the 2017 main table that were not in the 2020 main table).

Questions that I still have are: 

  1. Is the data complete and how many total units were constructed during the same time period? (Metro data appears to show 11,600 apartments were built in CY 2018-2020).
  2. What portion of housing for the homeless is being included or excluded from this data?
  3. Does the reported increase in regulated units in the inventory match data from the HB 4006 required annual housing production reports from cities over 10,000?
  4. How are RAD conversions of public housing and project based vouchers being reflected in the data? 
  5. Are LIFT units reflected in this data? 
  6. Are preservation projects being captured including their extended subsidy dates?
  7. For 2021 and 2022 projects in the 2020 inventory, what is the trigger date used to decide when a project should be added to the inventory? Start of construction, occupancy permit, or?
  8. At what point are affordable projects financed by regional bond measures going to be added to the inventory? 
  9. When is the scheduled date for publication by Metro of the NEXT housing inventory report? 
  10. Who is responsible in each geographic area for supplying timely data to Metro?
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

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