Good News for Oregon Housing and Community Services in Moody's.com Report on State HFA's.

I recently reviewed a Moody's November 2008 Special Comment on the condition of state housing finance agencies [HFA's] .

[The title of this Special Comment is "State Housing Finance Agencies-Sector Outlook"]. It is available for download to subscribers at moodys.com (a basic subscription is free, but you have to register) .

Moody's overall conclusion is that

"...the outlook for the HFA sector for the next 12 to 18 months is negative as the sector faces unprecedented challenges from the capital markets and a weakened real estate market."

This post will focus on some good news for Oregon Housing and Community Services(OHCS) I found within the data in this report. (In a separate post later this week or next, I will report about some bad news for OHCS I found when analyzing the report data).

The good news: My analysis shows that Oregon has outperformed the average for other HFA's when it comes to changes in 90 day delinquencies, foreclosures, and REO.

For default, foreclosure, and REO data the report covers the period from Dec. 31,2005-June 2008. A total of 35 HFA programs with whole loan/bond programs were included (some state HFA's, including Washiington HFA were not included in the comparisons).

The overall conclusion I reached is that OCHS single family loan inventory increased close to the national HFA average rate of increase, but instead of increasing at a similar pace, OHCS foreclosures and REO declined, instead of growing.

I have prepared a summary of the comparisons I made showing the changing number of loans, as well as the percentage growth, and share of inventory that the changing numbers represent.

That side by side comparison table (Dec. 2006-June 2008) is HERE; Some highlights:

Changes in the Number of Loan Counts (Found in the left side columns in the table).

1. The number of OHCS revenue bond loans increased by 25% compared to an average increase of 22% for all HFA's.
2. The number of OHCS properties in default for 90+ days decreased by 23.9%; Nationally the average number of HFA properties in default 90+ days increased by 11.9%.
3. The number of OHCS properties in foreclosure decreased by 3.1% the average HFA number of properties in foreclosure increased by 24.5%.
4. The number of OHCS REO properties decreased by 30%; the average number of REO properies for all HFA's increased by 66.3%.

Changes in Rates (Found in the right side columns in the table)

1. OHCS's 90+ day default rate (90+ defaults /Total Loan Inventory) decreased by 39%; while the average HFA 90+ day default rate decreased but only by 2%.
2. OHCS's foreclosure rate (foreclosures /Total Loan Inventory) decreased by 23% while the average HFA rate increased by 2%.
3. OHCS's REO rate (REO/Total Loan Inventory) decreased by 44%.while the average HFA rate increased by 36%.