New Analysis of Oregon Owner Occupied Subprime and ALT A ARM Loan Data, Including Upcoming Initial Resets.

Attached as a PDF file HERE is my new analysis of Subprime and ALT A Owner Occupied ARM Loans as of December 2008, including projected future initial resets.(Data I used was from the New York Federal Reserve; look at the notes at the bottom of the data table for additional information about my data methods).

I think you will find that this is the most comprehensive analysis of Oregon subprime and ALT A loans available, anyplace.

The analysis has a very specific focus.
1. Owner Occupied loans that are
2. Either Subprime or ALT A AND
3. That are ARMS.

The first two pages of the analysis summarize the monthly number of subprime and ALT A loans for different months during 2008 and initial resets over several different time horizons. (Data for some of these months is missing from the Federal Reserve website, and therefore missing from my tables).

Page 3 is a graph showing owner occupied ARM initial resets for three different time horizons, with breakouts for both subprime and ALT A owner occupied ARM loans.

Pages 4-5 provide a side by side comparison of Oregon December 2008 ALT A and ARM loan data for 57 different data elements. Data fields include FICO scores, initial and current interest and a lot more.

Some observations from the tables and graph:

1. Very few (819) of ALT A loans will reach their initial reset during the 12 months from December 2008, but a wave of ALT A loans will reset in subsequent periods (6,400 out of 11,500).
2. In contrast there will be more than 10,000 suprime ARM resets in the 12 months from Dec. 2008.
   
3. As a result of past and 2009 initial resets for subprime ARM loans their will be very few of these loans remaining (4,000 out of 36,000) that will have NOT reached their initial reset by December 2009.
   
4. The number of subprime owner occupied ARM loans has declined by 24%/11,275 from Jan-December 2008. It is likely these loans either were refinanced or they went into foreclosure and/or REO.
5. The number of ALT A owner occupied ARM loans has declined by much less 13%/1,780 from Feb-December 2008.This likely reflects that initial resets for these borrowers come later than for subprime owner occupied ARM borrowers.