NSP2 Foreclosure Need Data Out in the Wild.

Finally, data being used for HUD Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) NOFA has been released by HUD.

You can select individual states from map or download the entire US from web page HERE. From that page:

"HUD has developed scores for Census tracts that estimate a risk for foreclosure based on:
* whether or not loans are high cost or highly leveraged in the census tract,
* if home values in the metropolitan areas have fallen and by how much,
* the unemployment rate in 2008, and
* whether or not that unemployment has changed between 2007 and 2008.

These factors are extremely good predictors of foreclosure problems and are used to create the scores for NSP neighborhood targeting purposes. For NSP1 grantees, this information provides a slightly different look at the areas of greatest need. Grantees using this site to plan NSP1 activities should be aware that the foreclosure and vacancy scores in this map are slightly different from those provided in October 2008. Grantees may use either set of data, at their discretion, so long as any changes conform to normal CPD procedures for NSP plan amendments.

For NSP2 applicants, the data here is the same at the data underlying the map. They provide the basis for a determination of geographic needs, both for the threshold requirement and for scoring factor 1 (see the NSP2 NOFA).
Also note that the foreclosure problem estimated here are of "foreclosure starts". Data from HOPE NOW indicate that fewer than half of loans that start the foreclosure process complete it. Many borrowers become current, have their loans modified, sell their home in a short-sale, and other outcomes. Thus, the estimates here are assumed to overstate the actual number of homes that would become Real Estate Owned. "