Friday, June 18, 2010

Oregon's Economic Forecast Data is At Odds with FHFA Published Data.

A week ago I sat in on an intesting presentation about the Oregon Economic Forecast at the State Housing Council meeting.

One part of the Oregon Forecast is a release of related data including "other" economic indicators that include housing price data.

The latest Oregon "other indicators" data is available HERE.

I have gone back and pasted below the information on Oregon's home price index as published in this report matched up with the official Oregon price data from FHFA [HERE] (The FHFA data is supposed to be the source for the Oregon Forecast home price data).

Year/Qtr Oregon FHFA Difference
 2007:1 454.9 454.64 -0.1%
 2008:1 461.9 461.33 -0.1%
 2009:1 435.2 434.57 -0.1%
2010:1 384.6 391.44 1.8%

Big Difference in First Qtr, 2010 Home Price Data from Oregon Forecast vs. FHFA Official Data.

As you can see for 1st Qtr 2010 the "other indicators' table published in the Oregon Economic Forecast shows an Oregon home price index of 384.6, when the FHFA data for that same quarter is 1.8% HIGHER at 391.4. 

The May 25th release by FHFA of 1st Qtr. 2010 home price data may be the reason for the understated home price index found in the Oregon Economic Forecast. 

It is important to note however that the Oregon Economic Forecast has a projected home price index of 390 even as far forward as the 4th Qtr of 2011, BELOW the current published FHFA home price index of 391.4 for 1st Qtr 2010. 

It is ONLY in first quarter 2012 that the Oregon Economic Forecast shows the Oregon home price index (392.7) exceeding the FHFA published 1st Qtr. 2010 home price index for Oregon.

Bottom Line: If Oregon home prices continue to decline the discrepancy between the Oregon Forecast Oregon home price index and the actual FHFA data could be reduced, but right now the Oregon Forecast home price index shown in official estimates is 1.8% below the actual FHFA value for 1st Qtr 2010.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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