Saturday, August 21, 2010

July Oregon HAMP Loan Mod Data: 1. Pace of Permanent Loan Modifications Slowing 2. Remaining Trial Loan Mods Could Drop to ZERO Within 3 Months.

During July the pace of permanent HAMP loan modifications decreased in Oregon and in Oregon metro areas, while the rapid decline in active trial loan modifications signals that the pipeline for future permanent loan modifications could dry up completely within three months. (These trends are also occurring nationally).

I have broken out HAMP loan modification data for US, Oregon, AND for Oregon metro areas [Bend, Corvallis, Eugene, Medford, Portland, Salem) through July in tables I constructed HERE.

Some Observations:
  1. Oregon's inventory of active trial loan modifications continue to shrink to 2,747; that is down by 6,141 or 69% since the start of the year. (Nationally, the decline is 67% since the start of the year).
  2. With an inventory reduction of 1,270 active trial loan modifications in July, the 2,747 remaining inventory of Oregon trial loan modifications could be reduced to zero within three months.  This mirrors the national trend; the remaining active trial loan modification inventory of 255,934 loans could be eliminated within three months at the pace of the July reduction of 108,143 loans.
  3. Oregon's inventory of active permanent loan modifications continues to increase, reaching 4,700, an increase of 437% (3,825) since the start of the year. The Oregon YTD 437% rate of increase is less than the national rate of permanent loan modification increase of 535%.
  4. Oregon's permanent loan modification active inventory increased by 311 in July , but that rate of monthly increase is DOWN significantly from a 471 increase in June, a 499 increase in May. and a 741 increase in April. With a reduction in the trial loan modification pipeline occurring, it seems likely that the pace of monthly permanent loan modifications will continue to decrease.
The National Housing Scorecard through July is HERE; the national HAMP report through July is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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