Sunday, June 10, 2012

Updated: New Moody's Report on HFA Delinquencies Includes Oregon Data/OHCS Serious Delinquency Rate is Less than Other Loan Types.

  • I added an observation comparing the OHCS serious delinquency rate with the Oregon serious delinquency rate for all loans from MBA for Dec 2011.
  • I added an observation that the OHCS Dec 2011 serious delinquency rate was the 10th best of 30 rated state HFA's with SF whole loan programs.
  • I added a second worksheet in the workbook showing counts of loans by state HFA's for Dec. 2011, including loans in default, total loans, and serious deliquency rates.
Report is HERE; story from NCSHA is HERE.

Oregon data is found on several pages of the report. 

My observations about reported OHCS SF delinquency and foreclosure rates 2005-2011: 
  1. The  serious delinquency rate using the MBA definition (90+ day defaults PLUS foreclosures) as of 12/2005 was 2.71% and as of 12/2011 it was 4.29%, an increase of 58%.
  2. There were 331 loans in the serious delinquency category as of 12/2011 and 184 as of 12/2005, an increase of 147 loans.
  3. The OHCS SF serious delinquency rate of 4.29% as of 12/2011 was  substantially lower than the rate for all loan types in Oregon metro areas except Corvallis (2.4% ). Other Oregon metro serious delinquency rates for all loans were Bend 9.9%; Eugene 6.7%; Medford 9.1%; Portland 7.6%; and Salem 8.5%. (The Foreclosure Response default and foreclosure data for 12/2011 for all metro areas can be found in an Excel workbook HERE).
  4. I calculate that the Idaho HFA had a 12/2011 serious delinquency rate of 7.41% (Idaho had 594 90+day delinquencies PLUS foreclosures out of a universe of 8,020 loans). That Idaho HFA rate is 73% HIGHER than the OHCS 12/2011 4.29% SF serious delinquency rate.
  5. The total inventory of OHCS loans increased by 925 loans (14%) from 12/2005 to 12/2011, from 6,787 loans to 7,712 loans. 
  6. Update: The MBA reported serious delinquency for Oregon for all loan types as of 12/11 was 5.89%, 37% higher than the OHCS serious delinquency rate of 4.29%.
  7. Update: Oregon had the 10th lowest serious delinquency rate among 30 state housing finance agencies with whole loan programs as of 12/11. State data and rankings are found on the second worksheet that I have added to the embedded SkyDrive Excel file.
Upcoming Housing Council Briefing on SF; My Prior Posts
My memory is that the agenda for the July 13 Housing Council meeting is scheduled to include an update on the OHCS SF program; readers may recall that at a prior Council meeting there was a detailed single family briefing that I summarized in posts HERE and HERE.

I have embedded a SkyDrive Excel file below with OHCS loan data from 2005-2011 below; a direct link is HERE

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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