Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Little Known Fact: Portland Metro Has Exceeded National Average for Home Builders Leading Market Index Every Month for the Last 7 Years.

NAHB national release is HERE; Excel historical data is HERE. NAHB explains the index as follows: 
More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.

In looking at the data for Oregon Metro Areas I discovered that since May 2007 Portland has NEVER trailed the national index, exceeding it for 85 straight months.   A summary for All Oregon metros for that period is pasted below: 

While Portland has outperformed the national index for 7 years, the index value remains below 1 at .93 in May of 2014, signalling that activity has not returned to the previous "normal".  

In addition Corvallis and Portland are the only 2 Oregon metros exceeding the national average in May of 2014.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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