Portland Metro 25 Year Comparison of HUD FMR Increases to HUD Low Income Increases--Some Surprises.

I prepared HERE, and embedded below, a PDF comparison between the affordable rent for a 3 person household at 50% of Median Family Income LIMIT to HUD's published 2 BR Fair Market rents for the Portland Metro area for the 25 years from FY 1991-FY 2015. 

I also show the share of income that these households would have spent if they rented a unit at the HUD 2 BR FMR.

Some observations: 

1. NOTE that in this post the share of income for rent and affordability are all calculated at the TOP END of the 50% MFI 3 person income LIMIT; the vast majority of low income families are BELOW the TOP END of that income limit and will therefore experience bigger problems with affordability than this data indicates. 
2. In FY 2015 the HUD published 2 BR FMR for Portland ($944) is $117 above the rent that would be affordable to a 3 person family at the HUD published 50% MFI limit. ($828).
3. As a percentage the 14.1% FY 2015 gap between the HUD 2 BR FMR and the rent affordable to a 50% MFI 3 person household at the income limit in FY 2015 is less than the 18% percentage gap in FY 2014.  This is because HUD published median family incomes went up significantly from FY 2014 to FY 2015. 
4. As recently as FY 2008, the HUD 2 BR Portland metro FMR was $7 below the rent affordable to a 3 person household at the HUD published 50% MFI income limit.
5. In 2015 the share of income that a 3 person 50% MFI family at the income limit would spend to rent a unit at the HUD 2 BR FMR would be 34.2%. This is only marginally higher than the 33.6% that family would have paid 25 years ago in 1991. 
6. The only years in the last 25 where the share of income spent by this family type for the HUD 2 BR rent would have been LESS than 30% were 2005-2008.  
7. Looking at the recent period from 2015 to 2005 HUD 2 BR FMR's increased MUCH faster than the HUD 50% 3 Person MFI income limit: 31.7% vs 8.3%.
8. Looked at from the 2015 to 2000 period, the HUD 2 BR FMR increased LESS than the HUD's 50% 3 Person MFI income limit: 34.5% vs 37.1%.
9. Looked at from 2015 to 1991 period, HUD 2 BR FMR's increased MORE than the HUD 50% 3 Person MFI income limit: 91.9% vs 88.6%. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon  Housing Blog.