Oregon September Exhaustion Rate for Regular Unemployment Insurance is Third Highest in 40 Years; 35 States Hit Record Highs.

The exhaustion rate for Oregon regular unemployment insurance jumped to 54.7% in September, the third highest rate in the last 40 years. (June and July 2010 rates were less than one half of 1% higher). The Oregon regular unemployment insurance exhaustion rate in September 2019 was much lower at 30.1%

This substantial increase in exhaustion rate was at least in part the result of an increase in final payments to 19,000+ recipients in September vs 2,000+ in September of 2019, and 5,000+ in August of 2020. ("Final" payments for regular unemployment insurance may not mean final; recipients may qualify for extended benefits, or pandemic unemployment insurance benefits once their regular unemployment benefits expire). [See below ""It's complicated"]. 

(The regular insurance exhaustion rate is calculated by dividing the number of final payments by the number of initial payments. In both cases a 12 month average is used with the period used for final payments lagging six months behind the period used for initial payments (to allow for the standard 26 week period of regular unemployment insurance benefits).

Oregon was not alone, I calculate that in September 35 states experienced their highest EVER regular unemployment insurance exhaustion rate. That includes Washington state, with a 71% exhaustion rate.

The US Department of Labor posts quarterly data HERE that includes exhaustion rates, but the data posted to date ends with the 1st Quarter 2020.  I downloaded ETA 5159 monthly reports that include data through September 2020 and verified my exhaustion rate calculations by comparing them to past DOL posted quarterly exhaustion data. (State ETA 5159 data goes back to the late 1970's).

When do Benefits End? It's Complicated, But It's Clear that the Loss of Pandemic Programs Will Accelerate the End Date.

The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities has a recent post HERE that does a good job of explaining the potential length of unemployment benefits in different states under different program including regular unemployment insurance, extended benefits, pandemic economic unemployment compensation, and pandemic unemployment assistance. 

From an earlier CBPP post  HERE the chart pasted below shows three scenarios for workers that differ based on program eligibility date and the date of job loss. Note that PUA recipients are projected to lose benefits as early as November. 

Suffice it to say that the potential loss of CARES act unemployment insurance programs at the end of December (PEUC and PUA) will make a difficult situation much worse. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.