The 2018 Oregon Business Plan called for a 30,000 annual housing production goal in Oregon for the next 10 years.
Subsequently released census data shows the actual net increase in housing units from 2010 to 2020 was 138,105 units or an average annual net increase of 13,810 units. (This net change is not limited to new production reflecting changes resulting from demolitions and conversions).
Total 3 Year Production, 2018-2020 in 49 Largest Cities: 44,539 Units
I’ve reviewed housing production reports from Oregon’s largest 49 cities for the last three years (2018-2020) and the total reported unit production is 44,539 units.
That's an average production of 14,880 units per year in these cities, 14 units per 1,000 units in these cities in the 2020 census.
Projection of 3 Year 2018-2020 Housing Production in ALL of Oregon, 2 Scenarios
The tables pasted below show my projections of total housing production gaps in for ALL of Oregon in two scenarios:
Scenario 1: Areas outside Oregon’s 49 largest cities produced housing units at the same rate as within those cities. (14 units annually per 1,000 units)
The largest 49 cities had 59% of Oregon’s housing stock in the 2020 census. If communities outside those 49 cities produced housing at the same rate as within the 49 cities this would mean total housing production of 31,579 units outside of these 49 cities for a statewide total of 76,218 units from 2018-2020.
This would be a gap of 13,782 units/15% from the 90,000 unit 3 year goal.
In the remaining 7 years of the 10 year goal period Oregon would need to produce 223,782 units to achieve a 10 year increase in supply of 300,000 units.
This would require an annual production rate of 31,769 units per year, 26% higher than the projected rate of production in the years 2018-2020.
Scenario 2: Areas outside Oregon’s 49 largest cities produced housing at a rate that was 1/2 the rate within those cities. (7 units annually per 1,000 units).
It seems highly unlikely to me that communities outside of the 49 largest cities would produce housing at the same rate as within those cities. These areas are unlikely to have the same housing production infrastructure as within the largest cities and housing production challenges may be greater.
If the actual rate of production outside of the cities was at a rate half of that within the 49 cities this would mean total housing production of 15,790 units outside of these 49 cities for a statewide total of 60,429 units in the last three years.
This would be a gap of 29,571 units/33% from the 90,000 unit 3 year goal.
In the remaining 7 years of the 10 year goal period Oregon would need to produce 239,571units to achieve a 10 year production of 300,000 units.
This would require an annual production rate of 34,244 units per year, 70% higher than the projected rate of production in the years 2018-2020.
2021 Production Reports Due Feb 1st.
Oregon's 49 largest cities have a deadline of Feb 1 to report 2021 housing production data but the complete 2020 data took months longer for all cities to report.
It is possible that production in 2021 exceeded the 2018-2020 average. However, with the pandemic, it could be that production in 2021 was below the average in the prior 3 years.
Bottom line: 2018-2020 Gaps Increase Annual Production Needed
The 14,000 to 29,000 gap between the 90,000 unit 2018-2020 housing production goal and actual housing production would require a 26%-70% INCREASE in actual annual housing production in the 7 years 2021-2027(vs the actual units produced from 2018-2020) if the 10 year production goal of 300,000 units is to be accomplished.
This would required annual production of 32,000 to 34,000 units for the 7 years 2021-2027 vs the 20,000 to 25,000 average annual production in the 3 years 2018-2020.
Courtesy, Oregon Housing Blog.
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