NEW Oregon Housing Production Data: 17K Gap In Annual Housing Production VS. 36K Goal; 92% of Gap (16K) Was Regulated Unit Production.

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HB 4006 has required Oregon's large cities (10,000+) to report permit AND production data since 2018. LDC has posted individual Excel data annually . 

I consolidated that data into a single Excel workbook HERE and added 2022 data that LDC staff sent me as well as some analysis worksheets.  In total there is now 5 years of housing permitting AND PRODUCTION data. 

Here's a list of worksheets in the workbook: 

The first worksheet shows a list of all worksheets in the workbook. The second and third worksheets are pivot tables for ALL units and REGULATED units. 

Two later worksheets are the source of all other data. Both contain both permit and PRODUCTION data, as well as counts of SF detached, ADU's, Manufactured, Duplexes, Triplexes, and Quadplexes; the subtotal of these unit types are counted as "missing middle" in the worksheets I constructed. 

1. One worksheet counts ALL units
2. The other counts Regulated units (units that have some kind of income restriction). 

The far right columns in both of these worksheets includes a count of housing units from the Census and the Census geocode--this will allow users to compare production to the existing housing stock totals and to merge this data with other Census data. 

In addition to the base worksheets there are summary worksheets that highlight share of all units produced that were regulated and illustrate the gap between production goals and actual production. 

Another worksheet highlights ADU and missing middle production and another highlights those cities with the largest share of production from missing middle production. [The TABLE pasted below ranks cities with 100+ missing middle units produced by the share that missing middle units were of total production].

NOTES: 

I added row totals for all cities for each year, so when looking at data for multiple years insure that you are not double counting those totals. 

Also to the far right is an indicator whether the city is located within the Portland Metro (government) jurisdiction. 

For 2022 there are still 8 cities out of 58 that have no reported data, 3 months after the Feb 1 deadline for reporting. I don't anticipate those cities would significantly add to unit counts for 2022. (Cities not reporting are Astoria, Canby, Central Point, McMinnville, North Bend, Pendleton, Sweet Home, and Troutdale).

Observations:

ALL Large Cities

Annual production over 5 years averaged 14,629 units annually in the large cities. Regulated housing (an average of 1,381 units) represented 9.4% of average annual production over those 5 years. 

In 2022, the 13,562 units produced was lower than the 5 year average of 14,629, but the 2,361 regulated units produced was higher than the 5 year average of 1,381 units, as was the regulated unit production share at 17.4% vs the 5 year average of 9.4%. 

City of Portland. 

Annual production over 5 years averaged 5,297 units and regulated housing (an average of 846 units) represented 16 % of average annual production over those 5 years. 

In 2022, the 3,303 units produced was lower than the 5 year average of 5,297, but the 1,410 regulated units produced was higher than the 5 year average of 846 units, as was the regulated unit production share at 44% vs. the 5 year average of 16%. 

36,000 Annual Production Goal: 

STATEWIDE Production Gap/Goal Shortfall Was 17,714 Total Units, with 92% of Gap (16,273) in Affordable Units. 

Housing production in these large cities by definition doesn't include production outside of those cities. 

The stated statewide goal is 36,000 units a year, with 18,000 of those affordable. 

1. IF the assumption is that housing production in these cities is 80% of total statewide production than average annual total Oregon production over the last 5 years would be (higher) at 18,286 units, and regulated average annual production would also average (a higher) 1,727 units. 
2. That leaves a statewide gap of 17,714 total units a year (14,629/80%=18,286. 36,000-18,2836=GAP 17,714)
3. The statewide gap for regulated units is 16,273 units a year ( (1,381/80%=1,727.  18,000-1,727=GAP 16,273)
4. This means that the NET statewide annual gap for units without affordability provisions is (only) 1,441 units (17,714-16,273=GAP 1,441).
5. The 16,273 affordable statewide housing gap is 91% of the TOTAL statewide gap. (16,273/17,714= Affordable GAP 92%).
6. So while affordable housing production is 50% of the goal, it accounted for 92% of the production gap. 
7. IF actual 2022 production was used instead of the 5 year average, the total gap would increase while the affordable housing gap would be reduced. [See table below and worksheet "2018-2022 Quick Summary" for two gap analysis scenarios. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.