Wednesday, February 17, 2021

2021 Oregon Legislator Contact Info With Elderly Population Data and ID of Health Care Committee Members.

I have compiled an Excel workbook with three worksheets HERE, and embedded below. 

The first lists by chamber the member names, districts, party affiliation, senior (65+) population, and contact information. This worksheet also includes a column indicating if the member sits on a health care/COVID related committee of subcommittee in the House or Senate. [Print settings for this sheet are landscape and it prints to 9 pages].

A second worksheet summarizes that data by chamber, party and member name. It shows: 

  • Seniors 65+ are 17% of state population, 20% in Republican districts and 15% in Democratic districts. 
  • Seniors 65+ are 23% of the voting age population, 27% in Republican districts and 20% in Democratic districts.  

The third worksheet includes links to the 2019 ACS data that I used to calculate the senior population and percentages for each member/district as well as links to health care/COVID related subcommittees or committees in the House or Senate. 

Whether you’re interested in the elderly or healthcare (or not) the listing of legislators, their party, and their contact information is something I have found difficult to find in one place.

NOTE: The Oregon House Subcommittee on COVID 19 had scheduled a hearing on senior access to COVID vaccinations this week but it was cancelled because of the weather. I do not see a rescheduled date this week or next. 

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Monday, February 1, 2021

Oregon 2020 Actuals: Without Supplemental Unemployment Insurance the Average Rent Affordable for Those Who Got UI Was Only $426 a Month.

I have extracted from DOL data Oregon unemployment program benefit data for all of 2020 for four main unemployment programs: 

  • Regular
  • Extended Benefits
  • Federal Pandemic Unemployment Insurance 
  • Pandemic Unemployment Assistance 
In Oregon those 4 programs provided more than $3.2 billion in benefits over a total of more than 9 million weeks in 2020-the equivalent of more than 178,000 full time work years

The 1 page PDF graph and table HERE, and embedded below, shows the 2020 details for each program, including a calculation of the monthly rent that would be affordable (at 30% of income) for the average weekly benefit shown for each program. 

Notes: 

  1. Across all four programs the weighted average weekly UI benefit amount of $327 would support an affordable monthly rent of only $426. (The $327 average weekly UI benefit is $133 less than the $460 full time non urban 2020 Oregon minimum wage @$11.50 an hour. The 2019 ACS median monthly rent in Oregon was $1,185). 
  2. The workshare unemployment insurance program is not included as it is a supplement to wages.  An affordable rent can't be calculated because wage information is not available. 
  3. The table also shows what rent would be affordable at the minimum and maximum weekly benefits allowed in Oregon in 2020. (Less than 25% of regular unemployment recipients received the maximum benefit in 2020). 
  4. The affordable rent amounts shown do NOT include the supplemental unemployment benefits provided under two programs in 2020: FPUC and CAA. Those were not included because the programs operated for only a part of the year and there is no readily available Oregon data on the total weeks of payments for those programs.  
  5. It IS easy to calculate how much more supplemental weekly benefits can increase rent affordability. For every $100 in supplemental UI weekly benefits the monthly affordable rent increases by $130. So the $300 weekly LWA supplement that began in September increased affordable rent by $390 a month, and the earlier $600 FPUC increased affordable rent by $780 a month.  
  6. The new $300 FPUC enacted at the very end of 2020 is scheduled to expire in March. Without an extension in FPUC UI recipients will see a dramatic decline in the rent affordable to them, and likely large increases in rent arrearage that will impact both tenants and landlords. 

 
 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

Monday, January 25, 2021

Oregon COVID FIRST Dose Vaccination Elderly Roll Out: "Eligibility" Is NOT Full Availability, Which Will Take 16 Weeks.

Oregon governor Kate Brown's decision to give K-12 teachers and staff priority before the elderly for the COVID vaccines has been controversial to say the least. 

I'm 73 and directly impacted.  

Not incidentally, HUD data show that 41% of all Oregon HUD assisted rental households in 2020 had a head of household who was age 62 and above-so that's in excess of 20,000 senior households-many of them minorities- also impacted by Oregon's COVID vaccine priority system. 

For the record, I am OK with on site teachers and staff being vaccinated before me. 

The Plan, and the Problem

The Oregon announced "eligibility" start dates are 80+ year old residents on February 7, with 75+ becoming "eligible" on February 14, 70+ "eligible" on February 21, and 65+ "eligible" on February 28.

The week of February 7th DAILY 1st vaccine dosages available are 3,582 (over a seven day period) and they jump to 7,164 per day for the weeks that follow. [This equates to 25,075 1st doses in the first week, and 50,150 in the following weeks].

The problem is that these dosages do NOT keep up with the cascading weekly increase in the "eligible" elderly population. 

In short, "Eligibility" does NOT EQUAL availability. 

I have prepared a 2 page PDF file with a graph and table HERE [and embedded below] that shows the weekly percentages of the total elderly "eligible" population served for the next 16 weeks. 

Observations: 

When the second elderly "eligible" group (75-79) becomes "eligible" on February 14th the total "eligible" elderly swells to 301,295, but cumulative 1st dosages available number only 32,238. So as of that date only 11% of the eligible elderly will have that first dose available. 

When my age group (70-74) become "eligible" on February 28th the total eligible elderly population increases to 507,735 but available cumulative doses total only 82,386. That means that only 17% of the "eligible" elderly as of that date will have had that first dose available [and there will be 425,349 now "eligible" elderly people WITHOUT an available 1st dose]. 

Reaching just 50% of the total eligible elderly population of 765,541 is projected for April 4. That is the 9th week, and the 57th day of the first elderly group "eligibility". 

First dosages are projected to catch up to the total eligible elderly population on Friday May 28th. That's in the 16th week, and the 111 day of the first elderly "eligibility". (Completion of the second dose should take 3-4 weeks longer, to mid to late June).

I think the focus on the start dates for "eligibility" is highly misleading and will cause confusion and distrust that could have been avoided by focusing more realistically on how long the roll out will take. 

Increased dosage availability and reducing the count of the elderly population by the number of elderly already receiving their first dose by February 7th could decrease the time periods shown. Conversely, geographic and other distribution problems, and reluctant and anti-vaccination issues could extend the elderly roll out even longer. 

After the elderly there will be more than 3 million Oregonians left to vaccinate. At 50,000 first dosages a week it would take 60 weeks AFTER the late May elderly 1st dosages are completed for the total 1st round of dosages to be complete. That would be July of NEXT year. 

Even if 1st dosages available were doubled to 100,000 per week beginning in June, this would still mean that 3 million additional 1st dosages would not be completed until January of 2022.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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Tuesday, January 19, 2021

New Oregon HUD Subsidized Households Data for 52K+ Households , 2020: I Put ALL Oregon Geographies in One Big Excel File.

HUD has just released their December 2020 Picture of Subsidized Households data. 

As I did in 2018 I have compiled an Excel workbook with multiple Oregon geographic levels. For each geographic level I have included both the data and a pivot table that makes it easier to navigate the data.[Pivot tables are shown in red in the Table of Contents tab]. 

CAVEAT: The Excel workbook is a large file, about 212 MB

My 2020 Excel file is HERE.
My previous post with 2018 data is HERE.
The HUD 2020 data dictionary is HERE. HUD's data for multiple years and geographies is HERE

Worksheets within the workbook:
  • Table of contents
  • State field listing (there are 74 data fields).
  • State summary (with map showing state rank by voucher share of all HUD rental assistance; Oregon's state rank is  #1).
  • States.
  • SMSA’s
  • Congressional Districts
  • PHA’s
  • Counties
  • Places
  • Zip Codes
  • Census Tracts
  • Projects
  • City Lookup
Notes

The 2020 HUD Picture data counts were 54,820 HUD assisted units in Oregon with 97,094 people. 
The counts for 2018 were 52,887 units and 97,094 people, so there were 1,923 more units reported in 2020, but 428 fewer people. 

The state summary worksheet opens with a ranked listing of states by their share of all HUD assisted units that come from the housing voucher program. The map in that worksheet (also pasted below) shows that Oregon has the HIGHEST state percentage of units that come from the housing voucher program. The table shows that 72.3% of all Oregon HUD assisted units come from the voucher program vs 51.7% nationally. 

The default view of the Pivot table of state data opens to show the percentage of all HUD assisted units headed by women, by women with children, and by minorities.  In Oregon 55% of all HUD assisted units were reported as headed by women, 19% by women with children, and 27% by minorities. 

The default view of the Pivot table of project data shows by city, by program, and by project name the percentage of units occupied by minorities.  
So for example in Lake Oswego there were two HUD assisted projects with one having 9% minority residents and the other with 5% minority residents. 
In the city of Portland minority head of household percentages in HUD assisted projects ranged from 7% to 88%.  

Data fields for individual minority groups are available, however with smaller projects (and geographies) those percentages may be suppressed because of privacy concerns. 


Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog