Friday, May 14, 2021

March 2021 State FHA Single Family Serious Delinquency Data: 948,00 Loans With an Unpaid Loan Balance of $157 Billion.

My previous post provided a census tract level map of census tracts with 11 or more seriously delinquent FHA insured loans. The number of serious delinquent loans appears on the map and the selection of an individual tract provides a pull down with more information on serious delinquencies in prior quarters and original loan amounts and remaining loan balances for the loans in serious delinquency. 

I have prepared the 4 page PDF file HERE and embedded below which summarizes and expands the March 31 data at the state level. 

The first two pages display data on counts of loans in serious delinquency and outstanding loan balances, while pages 3-4 display information on the counts of census tracts with serious delinquencies. 

Some observations, using Oregon as an example: An estimated 6.356 seriously delinquent loans, with an unpaid loan balance of $1.3+Billion.  

  • In the 222 census tracts with 11 or more seriously delinquent loans there were 3,741 seriously delinquent loans.
  • There were another 523 census tracts that had at least 1, but less than 10 serious delinquencies. Assuming the mid point (5) between 1 and 10 , I projected that these 523 census tract had 2,615 seriously delinquent loans. 
  • Adding the two together there were 745 census tracts with 1 or more seriously delinquent loans, and the estimated total of those seriously delinquent loans was 6,356.
  • The average unpaid loan balance for the seriously delinquent loans in census tracts with 11 or more seriously delinquent loans was $211,330. Multiplying that by the 6,356 estimated total seriously delinquent loans results in an estimated unpaid loan balance of $1,343,214,581.

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Wednesday, May 12, 2021

New Census Tract Map is First With March Nationwide FHA Serious Delinquency Loan Data : 762,000 Loans; Outstanding Loan Balance=$126+ BILLION.

I recently downloaded FHA serious delinquency (90+ days) single family loan data from the end of March. 

My analysis found 65,177 US census tracts with 1 or more serious delinquencies, and of those there were 28,009 census tracts with 11 or more serious delinquencies. 

Because the values for census tracts with 10 or less delinquencies were suppressed for privacy reasons, I constructed a nationwide map of just those 28,009 census tracts with 11 or more serious FHA delinquencies. 

Nationally those 28,009 census tracts had a total of 762,260 seriously delinquent FHA loans; the outstanding loan balance for those loans was more than $126 BILLION. 

In Oregon the 222 census tracts with 11 or more serious delinquencies had a total of 3,741 serious delinquencies and the outstanding loan balance was more than $790 Million. 

Note that these counts and loan balances do NOT include seriously delinquent loans in census tracts with 1-10 serious delinquencies. There are more than 37,000 of those census tracts nationally and 523 in Oregon alone.  

The map of census tracts with 11 or more serious delinquencies is HERE and embedded below. (It may take a few seconds to fully load so be patient). 

The value shown in each census tract (with 11 or more serious delinquencies) is the number of serious delinquencies as of March 31, 2021. 

IF you click on an individual census tract a menu with additional information appears. It includes information on series delinquency counts from early quarterly periods and for the seriously delinquent loans information on the original FHA loan amounts and the remaining FHA loan balance for each quarterly period.


Heads Up:

Look for a future post with tables of state information on counts of census tracts with FHA single family serious delinquencies and estimated counts of FHA total serious delinquencies with the outstanding mortgage balance of those delinquencies. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

First List of 80 MTW Agency Voucher and Public Housing Counts by State, Including This Years MTW Expansion Agencies.

In my prior post I provided counts of Public Housing and Voucher counts by HUD region with a breakout of those counts for the now 80 approved HUD MTW agencies. 

In the 3 page PDF HERE and embedded below I breakout those counts by state. 

The listing starts with Vouchers, then Public Housing, and then the combination of both. 

Columns show MTW subtotals and state MTW percentage rankings. 

I'm confident that this is the first public posting of these counts. I used unit counts from the PHA data found in the HUD Picture of Subsidized Housing annual publication HERE.   

Some observations: 

  1. Oregon has the 6th highest percentage of PH units in MTW agencies, the 7th highest percentage of voucher units, and the 6th highest percentage of combined PH and voucher units. Oregon's  combined total of 15,331 MTW units is higher than Ohio's 11,555 combined MTW units AND North Carolina's combined 12,279 MTW units. 
  2. Washington has the 2nd highest percentage of PH units in MTW agencies, the 3rd highest percentage of voucher units, and the 3rd highest percentage of combined PH and voucher units. Washington's 33,341 voucher MTW units are slightly higher than the 33,148 MTW voucher units in Texas.
  3. California has the largest number of voucher units in MTW agencies at 72,299 units.
  4. Pennsylvania has the largest number of public housing units in MTW agencies at 16,145 units.
  5. New York, with a combined count of 461,790 public housing and voucher units, has ZERO MTW units. Ditto for Michigan with a combined count of 83,646 public housing and voucher units and ZERO MTW units. 

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Monday, May 10, 2021

Latest MTW Expansion Includes Washington County and Brings MTW Share of ALL US Vouchers to 16% and 10% of All Public Housing Units.

HUD has announced the latest 10 PHA's approved as Moving to Work agencies, bringing the MTW total to 80 PHA's. The latest limited scope MTW approvals test various rent variations as explained in the HUD PR HERE.  The HUD MTW landing page is HERE.

The Housing Authority of Washington County [HAWC] was one of the agencies approved for MTW participation; Home Forward is the only other MTW agency in Oregon. 

HAWC's approval for a tiered rent structure will extend regular income reviews to 3 years and band tenant rents by $2,500 income increments to simplify the rent setting process. The HAWC application, with many more details, is HERE

I compiled a count of public housing and HUD voucher units within the 80 MTW agencies and put together a summary by HUD region in a PDF file HERE and embedded below. [The unit count data source was the 2020 HUD picture of subsidized housing data found HERE].

Observations:

  • Region 10 [which includes Oregon and Washington] has the highest regional percentage of both public housing (57.2%) and voucher units (46.7%) in MTW agencies. 
  • In contrast Region 2 (think NYC), with 223,167 public housing units has only 394 of those units in MTW agencies
  • There are now 98,525 public housing units in MTW agencies and 425,079 voucher units. 
  • The latest 10 MTW agencies just added have a total of 59,556 units; 11,325 public housing units and 48,231 voucher units. 
  • The two MTW 2021 expansions this year to date have added a total of 75,596 units; 15,875 public housing units and 59,721 voucher units 
  • I count a total of 2,861 public housing agencies. The 80 MTW agencies are only 3.7% of total agencies, but have a substantially higher 10.3% of all public housing units and 16.2% of all voucher units.

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Wednesday, May 5, 2021

WITHOUT Adding Any Home Price Appreciation, Current Oregon FHA Loan Borrower's Mortgage Equity Totals $1.2+Billion, Averaging Nearly $19,000 Per Loan.

I recently discovered that HUD has posted updated  March 2021 loan balance information on FHA current loans down to the census tract level.  

I downloaded the data and aggregated it to the county level in the table pasted below. (The loan counts and mortgage amounts somewhat understate state totals because about 60 census tracts had their data suppressed because the count of loans was 10 or less).  

Some observations (all $ are rounded)

  1. Current borrowers=67,000
  2. Beginning mortgage balance=$14.8 Billion
  3. Current balance=$13.5 Billion
  4. Mortgage Equity=$1.27 Billion [NOTE: This does NOT include equity from any home price appreciation]
  5. Average Mortgage Equity Per Loan= $19,000 [NOTE: This does NOT include equity from any home price appreciation]
 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog