Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Corrected; First Nationwide HMDA 2020 Database of 260,000+ Two to Four Unit Loan Originations Merges Loan Level Data AND Lender Name.

Correction:

I had transposed PER unit values in "Key Observations" section below. Corrected now to reflect that PER UNIT values were HIGHER in 2 unit property vs 4 unit property. This could mean lower PER UNIT rent for units in 4 unit property vs PER UNIT rents in 2 unit property IF amenities and location are seen as equal. 

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State and local legislation to make it easier to site two to four unit housing is a welcome development. 

However, I have seen little information about the details of actual two to four unit loans, where they are being made, to whom, and with what underwriting standards.  

To begin to better understand these loans I downloaded 2020 HMDA nationwide data for all two to four unit loan applications that resulted in a loan origination, and added the lender details for each loan. 

Note that this does NOT include all loan applications, ONLY those that resulted in a loan origination in 2020 and was reported via HMDA. 

Data is available at the national, state, metro, county, and census tract level for more than 260,000 loans. While this is a substantial number or loans, it is less than 2% of the nearly 13.9+ million ONE unit loan originations reported in HMDA for 2020. 

The 140 MB Excel workbook I created is HERE. [You likely will need to download the file instead of viewing it in your browser]. 

The first READ ME worksheet lists the 10 worksheets in the Excel file. Worksheets include a pivot table to make navigation simpler and a summary page showing by state all loan originations and PER UNIT values by property unit size (two, three, or four units). Also included is a worksheet listing of all 113 data elements that include race and ethnicity, income, debt to income ratios and loan to value ratios. Another worksheet shows all the codes for  each data element. 

I also include a pivot table and worksheet with only OREGON data. It includes 2 additional data fields, county names and metro names. A MSA focused screenshot of the default Oregon pivot table is pasted below. 

Key Observation

Per UNIT values decrease as property unit size increases. Nationally, a 2 unit property had an average PER UNIT value of $249K vs $159K PER UNIT value for a 4 unit property, a 36% reduction. [Oregon had a more modest 21% reduction from $222K to $175K ].  

IF this translates to rents the PER UNIT rent in a 4 unit property should be lower than the PER UNIT RENT in a 2 unit property, IF amenities and location are seen as equal.  


Oregon HMDA 2020 Two to Four Unit Loan Originations by MSA
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

Monday, August 30, 2021

In 5 Days: Oregon Projected Unemployment Insurance Payments Will Drop by 79%/$259 Million Per Month.

Last Friday I did a post pointing out that the projected number of Oregon recipients of unemployment insurance will drop by a historic 66%/81,000 from 121,000 to 40,000. This will occur because pandemic unemployment insurance programs PUA and PEUC are ending on September 4th. 

September 4 also means that the $300 FPUC supplement for all UI recipients is also ending even for the projected 40,000 recipients of regular unemployment insurance after September 4th. 

The Projected Oregon Financial Loss is 79%/$259 Million a Month in Unemployment Insurance Benefits.  

The table below shows the math for this projection. 

NOTES: 

  1. An income loss of $259 million monthly=$3.11 billion annually. 
  2. The 81,000 UI recipients projected to lose unemployment insurance benefits would ALL need to be reemployed AND earn an average annual salary of $38,395 to make up a $259 million monthly income loss ($259 M/81,000*12= $38,395). [The required weekly wage would be $738, and hourly, $18.46]. 
  3. The most recent $389 Oregon regular UI average weekly benefit is equivalent to an annual income of $20,228 or $9.73 an hour for a full time employee. 
  4. Not shown in the table, the $59+million reduction in weekly UI benefits (from $75+ million to $15+ million) is a 79% drop vs. the 66% /81,000 drop in the number of recipients


Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.  


 

Friday, August 27, 2021

In 8 days: Biggest Weekly/Monthly Reduction in Unemployment Insurance in Oregon History.

I’ve looked at existing unemployment insurance benefit data and have confirmed that the upcoming September 4th projected 81,000 person reduction in unemployment insurance benefits (because of the ending of the PUA and PEUC programs) is the largest in Oregon history. 

A reduction of this magnitude would cut the number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries by 2/3rds in Oregon. (About 40,000 are receiving regular unemployment insurance, so the total UI recipients is about 120,000). 

Largest Prior Reduction in December 2013: 17,800 persons/27%

The largest prior Oregon reduction I could find was in December 2013 when 17,800 people were projected to lose their unemployment insurance because of the elimination of a another special program, the extended unemployment insurance program.

A December 2013 Oregonian news story said that 20,000 Oregonians were receiving those extended benefits but 2,200 would be able to switch to regular unemployment insurance; so a net reduction of 17,800. This is very similar to the current projection that 11,000 current PUA/PEUC recipients may be able to switch to regular unemployment insurance. (Oregonian story: Cutoff of aid nears for 17,800 in Oregon - Oregonian, December 14, 2013 - page 06, Molly Young). 

The Oregonian story didn't include information on the number of Oregonians receiving regular insurance in December 2013. 

I looked at DOL data and it appears that 202,000 payments during the month were made for regular insurance in Oregon. So in December 2013 on a weekly basis about 46,000 people were receiving regular unemployment insurance in Oregon. Adding in the 20,000 receiving extended unemployment insurance yields a total of 66,000 receiving unemployment insurance in December 2013.

A reduction of 17,800 persons because of the elimination of the extended unemployment insurance in December 2013 would be a much smaller 27% reduction in all receiving unemployment insurance vs. the projected 81,000 person/66% reduction on September 4th.  

OED Confirmation and Their Comment

I solicited a confirmation from OED and they confirmed my assessment and provided this context:

"The reason we are seeing the biggest reduction is because the pandemic also saw the highest number of people receiving benefits, including groups, like the self-employed, who have historically been ineligible for unemployment insurance. So, while accurate, your statement is not a true apples to apples comparison, and we hope you would include his important context in your blog."

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 


Thursday, August 26, 2021

2010-2020 Census: The City of Portland Had 26% (More than 1 in 4) Of the Total Statewide Increase in Housing Units.


The City of Portland had 26% of the total statewide INCREASE in housing units in Oregon from 2010-2020. (36,595/138,135=26%). That's more than 1 out of every 4 units. 

That was also more than

  • TRIPLE the 8% Portland share of the statewide increase from 1990 to 2000 (19,448/259,141= 8%)
  • DOUBLE the Portland 13% share of the statewide increase from 2000-2010 (28,168/ 222,854=13%)

AND…

  • The City of Portland added 98% of the COMBINED total unit increase in Washington county and Clackamas county (36,595 /37,377=98%).
  • The City of Portland increase in total housing units in the 2020 Census was HIGHER than their increase in both the 2010 and 2000 Census. [36,595 vs 28,168 (2010) and  19,448 (2000)].
  • CONVERSELY The STATEWIDE increase in total housing units in the 2020 Census was LOWER that BOTH the 2010 and 2000 Census. [138,135 vs 259,141 (2010 Census) and 222,854 (2000 Census)] . 
  • The City of Portland is 145 square miles. The three county Portland metro area is 3,027 square miles and the state of Oregon is 98,386 square miles. 
  • The City of Portland (145 square miles) is 5% of the 3 county Portland metro area (3,027 square miles) and less than 1% of the total state area (98,386 square miles). 
  • But....In the 2020 Census the City of Portland had 48% of the total housing unit increase in the three county Portland area (36,595/76,541=48%) and 26% of the statewide total increase (36,595/138,135=26%)

Data:
Author analysis using NHGIS IPUMS data (IPUMS NHGIS, University of Minnesota, www.nhgis.org ). Here's a link to the terms and conditions for use of their data. 

And here's a table I created: 



Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

Wednesday, August 25, 2021

2010-2020 Multnomah County Share of the INCREASE in Total Oregon Housing Units Jumped to 28% VS 16% of the Total Oregon Increase from 2000-2010

Thanks to NHGIS IPUMS (IPUMS NHGIS, University of Minnesota, www.nhgis.org) I was able to download Oregon housing unit data to the county level for the 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 Census. Here's a link to the terms and conditions for use of their data. I used the geographically standardized tables option for my download; an explanation is HERE

I prepared a 4 page legal sized PDF file HERE that shows counts for all Oregon counties for those years. 

It includes count of total units, occupied units, and vacant units.  It also includes calculations of numerical and percentage changes in these counts. (County percentage increases in units higher than the statewide percentage increase are conditionally highlighted in green).

I also pasted a Portland metro focused table pasted below that shows the total units for each of those Census periods as well as the increase in total units for each period. 

Some observations: 

The total increase in Oregon housing units slowed significantly from 2010-2020, increasing by 138,135 units. That was a substantially smaller increase that the 222,854 unit increase from 2000-2010 and the 259,141 unit increase from 1990-2000. Put another way the 138,135 increase from 2010 to 2020 accounted for only 22% of the total 620,180 total increase in housing units over a 30 year period. 

Multnomah county had 28% /39,164 of the total 138,135 increase in Oregon housing units from 2010-2020. That is a substantially larger share of the total increase than in prior Census periods. From 2000-2010 the Multnomah county share of the total increase in Oregon housing units was 16% and from 1990 to 2000 it was only 13%,

The 3 county Portland metro area had 55%/76,541 of the total 138,135 increase in Oregon housing units from 2010-2020. That is a majority of the total statewide increase and also a larger share of the total statewide increase than in prior Census periods. From 2000-2010 the 3 county Portland metro share of the total increase in Oregon housing units was 40% and from 1990 to 2000 it was 44%.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog