Saturday, June 14, 2008

Oregon Economic Forecast Quietly Drops Changes in Oregon House Price Index Forecast by 25%-32%.

An examination of the details of the Oregon Economic Forecast reveals that expected changes in Oregon house price have been scaled back significantly.(My earlier December 07 post questioning the house price index projections then being made can be found HERE).

The December 2007 forecast predicted that the change in the Oregon house price index from March of 2007 to March of 2008 would be 3.94% and from March 2008-March 2009, 2.84%.
The new May 08 forecast drops those expectations by 25% from March 07-March 08 and by 32% from March 2008-March 2009. (All comparisons used here track changes from the March of one year [1st quarter] to March of the next year).

Actual Index Change 07-08 Was 19-39% Below Forecast

Since new data on actual changes in the index through March are now available, it is now possible to assess the accuracy of both 07-08 forecasts. The December 07 forecast for that period overstated the actual change in the index by 39%. Even the new forecast, released in May 08 , continues to overstate the actual change in the index by 19%.

PDF Table Shows Side by Side Comparisons
The one page PDF table I have constructed
HERE shows the forecast changes, the actual changes, and the variations from the forecasts.

Oregon Economic Forecasts can be found
HERE; the Freddie Mac actual state changes used for the Oregon House Price Index can be found in the the Excel document HERE.

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