$3.9 Billion in 3 Pandemic Unemployment Insurance Programs in 2020: Fraud Reported by Oregon Employment Department Was 39 Cents Per $1,000 in Benefits; Recovery Was 1 Cent Per $1,000 in Benefits.

Fraudulent Payments are NOT Unique to Unemployment Insurance or Pandemic Unemployment Insurance Programs

As with many of the pandemic assistance programs the rush to make unemployment insurance payments likely has resulted in significant over payments and fraudulent payments. Unemployment insurance is not unique as it seems highly likely that improper and fraudulent payments have and will occur in the PPP, Restaurant Recovery, and Venue Recovery loan and grant programs, rent relief programs, homeowner relief programs,  recovery act payments, and in child tax credits.

Because pandemic unemployment insurance payments currently substantially exceed regular unemployment insurance payments in Oregon I thought it might be interesting to see how much Oregon has previously reported in fraudulent pandemic unemployment insurance payments and how much of that reported amount has been recovered in CY 2020.

To be clear I am focusing only on 2020 dollars of fraud discovered and recovered for these pandemic unemployment insurance programs: PEUC, FPUC, and PUA. 

I am NOT focusing on all unemployment insurance programs, nor on all improper payments, nor on ID theft which is a subset of overall fraud. 

OED Doesn't Disclose Unemployment Insurance Fraud Data to the Public

The Oregon Employment Department has repeatedly declined to release information about unemployment insurance fraud on the theory that public disclosure could undermine their efforts to prevent unemployment insurance fraud.

But OED Does Report Fraud Data in Quarterly and Monthly Reports to the Department of Labor.

In the absence of information from OED I dug out from DOL websites  calendar year 2020 information for three pandemic unemployment insurance programs: PUA, PEUC, and FPUC. This data is derived from official report data as submitted by OED. 

Planning, locating and extracting data from multiple reports was the challenge and likely the reason there has been little reporting of actual fraud counts and dollars not just in Oregon but around the country. I was able to do so and will be able to track that reporting on an ongoing basis. 

To my knowledge this DOL required data is the only public facing official source of fraud data for unemployment insurance programs. 

IF this reported data is incomplete or inaccurate the fraud data reporting shortcomings for Oregon seem likely to have been repeated in other states and the DOL would therefore have no reliable source of data to monitor fraud in these unemployment insurance programs.

The table pasted below shows these CY 2020 results (and the data sources). 

My Observations

OED Data Reported to DOL:

• $1.5 Million in fraud was identified out of $3.9 Billion in pandemic UI payments.
• Of that $1.5 Million in detected pandemic UI fraudulent payments only $53,000 was recovered.
• IF reported fraud and recovered fraud payments were only 1% of total pandemic benefits the amount of reported and recovered fraud would have been a much higher $39,440,000.  
• In CY 2019 DOL reports show that the Oregon fraud rate for the regular unemployment insurance program was 4.3%+; at that rate total pandemic fraud would have been more than $172 million in 2020).

This Means That: 

• Reported fraud was only 39 cents for every $1,000 in pandemic UI payments.
• Reported recovery of established fraud amounts was only 1 cent for every $1,000 in pandemic UI payments.
• It seems highly likely that 2020 official fraud reporting for these pandemic programs understates the scope of the problem. 

CAVEATS

• This data is for CY 2020, it's possible there has been improvement during CY 2021, including stepped up recovery of previously identified fraudulent payments. 
• This data is ONLY for theses three pandemic programs. Fraud identification and recovery could be substantially different for the Regular Unemployment and Workshare UI programs. 
• Fraud under the Unemployment insurance Lost Wage Assistance program is not included in this analysis.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Example: First Time Homebuyer Income Required to Qualify for a FHA Oregon Bond Loan Could Be Reduced by Up to 22% Using FHA Compensating Factors.

There are a wide variety of measures that are used to determine homeownership affordability. Those measures can include down payment assumptions, loan rate assumptions, home price assumptions, and allowable debt to income ratio assumptions. 

However I don't recall seeing any projections of the income required to purchase a home that use compensating factors as part of the debt to income analysis. Compensating factors allow applicants to qualify for larger loans than they would qualify for using standard housing debt and total debt to income ratios of 31% for housing expenses and 43% for all reoccurring expenses.

I'm most familiar with FHA lending so my examples will focus on FHA compensating factors. but  I'm sure that other loan programs also have their versions of compensating factors. 

Pre COVID 2019 HMDA Data Shows That the MAJORITY of Oregon FHA Home Purchase Borrowers Had Debt to Income Ratios of 44% or Higher.

In Oregon my review of 2019 HMDA data shows that 52% of FHA home purchase first lien loans originated had debt to income ratios of 44% or higher. (4,404 FHA home purchase first lien loans where DTI was reported at 44% or higher/7,922 total FHA first lien home purchase loans where DTI was known=52%). 

I also looked at Oregon 2019 HMDA data for FHA first lien home purchase loan originations to Hispanic, Black, and Asian borrowers. Their share of FHA first lien home purchase loans originated where DTI was 44% or higher was 66%, 67%, and 67% respectively.

[The link HERE will download the 2019 HMDA Oregon data for your review and further analysis]. 

FHA Compensating Factor Guidance

FHA's Single Family Policy Handbook 4000.1 includes a matrix of manual underwriting compensating factors that can be used to increase the percentage of income that can be used to qualify for an FHA loan.

The table pasted below (from handbook printed page 335) lists those factors that can be used to increase the amount of income used to qualify an applicant for an FHA loan:

A Portland  First Time Homebuyer Metro Example. 

I took the information from that table and applied it to an example I created for the Portland metro area for first time homebuyers. The PDF table I created is HERE and embedded below.

For the Portland metro area I created four scenarios shown in the PDF; a description of the compensating factors required for each scenario at at the top of each column:  

1. All scenarios assume a credit rating of 580 or more. This is, by itself, a compensating factor.
2. All use the current OHCS non targeted area Portland metro maximum purchase price of $453,000, the 2.25% current "cash advantage" interest rate for the Oregon Bond program, and a 3.5%/$15,855 down payment. All scenarios are fixed rate 30 year loans. Note that these terms are generally available only to first time home buyers. There are some exceptions for veterans and also for purchasers of property in targeted areas.  
3. The one time 1.75%/$7,650 FHA upfront mortgage insurance premium is included in the amount financed and the monthly MIP expense is .85%/$310.
4. Monthly property taxes and insurance and homeowners association expenses are estimated at 1.3%  of the purchase price divided by 12. ($491 per month).
5. Total monthly housing expense is $2,387.
6. Monthly non-housing reoccurring debt is assumed at $300 per month except for the 4th scenario where it is zero.
7. None of the scenarios factor in any boost for energy efficient homes, which could add 2% to the front and back ratios. My read is that these factors may only be available for scenarios 1 and 2.

Observations:

1. Using standard FHA underwriting ratios of 31%/43% in the first scenario the applicant would need $96,800 in annual income.
2. Scenario 2 requires only one compensating factor out of three possibilities and would decrease required income to $81,200 and increase allowable underwriting ratios to 37%/47%.
3. In scenario 3 there is an $75,100 income requirement but the applicant must meet at least two of these three compensating factors. The $75,100 income requirement is 22%/$21,700 less than in the first standard scenario. The underwriting ratios for this scenario are further increased to 40%/50%.
4. In scenario 4 (with only ONE required factor--no monthly recurring debt) the annual income required is also $75,100. using underwriting ratios of 40%/40%.
5. Using HUD's 4 person MFI for the Portland metro area of $96,900, 

Scenario 1 requires an income of $96,800---100% of MFI, 
Scenario 2 requires an income of $81,200--84% of HUD MFI, and 
Scenarios 3 and 4 require an income of $75,100--78% of HUD MFI.

NOTE: Use of a higher down payment would reduce monthly housing costs and reduce the income required to qualify in all scenarios, but poses a challenge for first time home buyers since it would also increase the cash required to close the loan.

Caveats:

1. The guidance cited above applies to manual loan underwriting. I do not know the extent to which these specific factors are modified or incorporated in the automated underwriting systems.  However given the large share of loans with DTI of 44% and higher it seems highly like that FHA approved automated credit scoring systems DO use credit scores and other factors in issuing loan approval decisions for loans with DTI at 44% and above. 
2. Lenders are free to adopt more restrictive standards than found in the handbook.  
3. I used the more restrictive income income limit of the two limits in each scenario rounded up to the next higher $100. 
4. The documentation required for each compensating factor can be found starting on PDF page 351 of the 40001.1 handbook.  
5. I used the latest version of the handbook, which is effective in August; I don't see any substantive changes in the compensating factors from those used in the current Handbook.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon April 2021 Update: FHA Loan Servicer Report Shows 5,547 Seriously Delinquent Loans, A Rate of 8.8%.

 I have compiled the latest end of April 2021 FHA servicing data for Oregon into a workbook with three worksheets HERE and embedded below. 

The second worksheet combines three HUD Neighborhood Watch sub reports into one worksheet that contains a servicing summary, loss mitigation, and loss mitigation incentive claims data. Filters are in place by default so users may select or sort on individual columns to find , for example, the servicer with the largest number of serious delinquencies, the highest serious delinquent rate, etc. 

The FIRST worksheet is a PIVOT table of the data worksheet. The default view in the pivot table are these statewide counts:

• All active loans (63,302)
• 90 day delinquencies (5,547) [5,547/63,302=8.8% serious delinquency rate)
• Foreclosure actions (58)
• Loss mitigation incentive claims paid (2,224)
• Forbearance claims paid (3)

To see information on individual servicers, users can pull down the servicer name in the field at the top of the pivot table or drag it into the Pivot table to see all servicers.

The third worksheet is a vertical listing of all of the data fields in the first worksheet and the HUD Neighborhood Watch sub report from which the data field is associated. 

Note: I had previously downloaded the Oregon March 31st servicing data; the April 30 serious delinquency rate of 8.8% is down from the March rate of 9.1%.

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March 2021: Oregon FHA Serious Delinquent Loan Data by County Includes Average Mortgage Equity/Principal Reduction.

In prior posts I constructed a national map of census tracts with 11 or more FHA seriously delinquent loans and then state tables that estimated statewide FHA seriously delinquent loans in all census tracts with 1 or more serious delinquencies. 

In this post I have constructed an Oregon county focused 2 page PDF landscaped formatted table HERE and embedded below. 

The table and this post again ONLY focuses on census tracts that have 11 or more seriously delinquent FHA loans and then aggregates that data to the county wide level in Oregon. This means that any Oregon county without any census tracts with 11 or more seriously delinquent loans will NOT appear in this analysis. 

The first page of the PDF focuses on seriously delinquent loans, the count of census tracts with those loans, their original mortgage amounts, their remaining debt, and their mortgage equity (the difference between the original mortgage and the unpaid current mortgage, AKA "principal reduction").  Mortgage equity however does NOT factor in any increase in home values. 

Unlike the last recession home values have generally been increasing in Oregon. This increase in value AND mortgage equity/principal reduction shown in the table provides a financial cushion that may prove to be useful in avoiding foreclosure and also open options for refinancing and or mortgage modification. 

The second page of the PDF file adds ALL outstanding FHA loans and compares the mortgage equity/principal reduction in all FHA loans to the mortgage equity/principal reduction in the seriously delinquent loans. 

Some observations:

1. There were 222 census tracts with 11 or more serious delinquencies and 137 census tracts (62%) were outside of the 3 county Portland metro area. 
2. The 2,310 serious delinquencies outside the 3 country Portland metro area were also 62% of the statewide total of 3,741.
3. There were 64,087 total FHA loans in force.  41,548 (65%) of the statewide total FHA loans in force were outside of the Portland metro. 
4. The statewide serious delinquency rate is 5.8%;  the 3 county Portland metro rate was higher at 6.3%. 
5. Statewide, serious delinquent mortgage equity was $75.5 million, averaging $19,134 per loan. The $23,102 average seriously delinquent mortgage equity was higher in the 3 county Portland metro area than the $16,676 average seriously delinquent mortgage equity outside the 3 county Portland metro area.
6. The statewide average mortgage equity in seriously delinquent loans ($19,134) is slightly higher than the average mortgage equity for ALL outstanding FHA loans ($19,048).  There are 10 counties where the reverse is true, but the variance in most of these counties (except Benton and Tillamook) is relatively slight. 

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New Census Tract Map is First With March Nationwide FHA Serious Delinquency Loan Data : 762,000 Loans; Outstanding Loan Balance=$126+ BILLION.

I recently downloaded FHA serious delinquency (90+ days) single family loan data from the end of March. 

My analysis found 65,177 US census tracts with 1 or more serious delinquencies, and of those there were 28,009 census tracts with 11 or more serious delinquencies. 

Because the values for census tracts with 10 or less delinquencies were suppressed for privacy reasons, I constructed a nationwide map of just those 28,009 census tracts with 11 or more serious FHA delinquencies. 

Nationally those 28,009 census tracts had a total of 762,260 seriously delinquent FHA loans; the outstanding loan balance for those loans was more than $126 BILLION. 

In Oregon the 222 census tracts with 11 or more serious delinquencies had a total of 3,741 serious delinquencies and the outstanding loan balance was more than $790 Million. 

Note that these counts and loan balances do NOT include seriously delinquent loans in census tracts with 1-10 serious delinquencies. There are more than 37,000 of those census tracts nationally and 523 in Oregon alone.  

The map of census tracts with 11 or more serious delinquencies is HERE and embedded below. (It may take a few seconds to fully load so be patient). 

The value shown in each census tract (with 11 or more serious delinquencies) is the number of serious delinquencies as of March 31, 2021. 

IF you click on an individual census tract a menu with additional information appears. It includes information on series delinquency counts from early quarterly periods and for the seriously delinquent loans information on the original FHA loan amounts and the remaining FHA loan balance for each quarterly period.

Heads Up:

Look for a future post with tables of state information on counts of census tracts with FHA single family serious delinquencies and estimated counts of FHA total serious delinquencies with the outstanding mortgage balance of those delinquencies. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Latest MTW Expansion Includes Washington County and Brings MTW Share of ALL US Vouchers to 16% and 10% of All Public Housing Units.

HUD has announced the latest 10 PHA's approved as Moving to Work agencies, bringing the MTW total to 80 PHA's. The latest limited scope MTW approvals test various rent variations as explained in the HUD PR HERE.  The HUD MTW landing page is HERE.

The Housing Authority of Washington County [HAWC] was one of the agencies approved for MTW participation; Home Forward is the only other MTW agency in Oregon. 

HAWC's approval for a tiered rent structure will extend regular income reviews to 3 years and band tenant rents by $2,500 income increments to simplify the rent setting process. The HAWC application, with many more details, is HERE. 

I compiled a count of public housing and HUD voucher units within the 80 MTW agencies and put together a summary by HUD region in a PDF file HERE and embedded below. [The unit count data source was the 2020 HUD picture of subsidized housing data found HERE].

Observations:

• Region 10 [which includes Oregon and Washington] has the highest regional percentage of both public housing (57.2%) and voucher units (46.7%) in MTW agencies. 
• In contrast Region 2 (think NYC), with 223,167 public housing units has only 394 of those units in MTW agencies. 
• There are now 98,525 public housing units in MTW agencies and 425,079 voucher units. 
• The latest 10 MTW agencies just added have a total of 59,556 units; 11,325 public housing units and 48,231 voucher units. 
• The two MTW 2021 expansions this year to date have added a total of 75,596 units; 15,875 public housing units and 59,721 voucher units 
• I count a total of 2,861 public housing agencies. The 80 MTW agencies are only 3.7% of total agencies, but have a substantially higher 10.3% of all public housing units and 16.2% of all voucher units.

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Oregon 2011 HMDA Data: 208k+Loan Applications, 48% Resulted in Loan Originations.

FFIEC has released 2011 HMDA data; various data products are available HERE.

From the Loan Application Registry data posted I have extracted Oregon data and compiled summary tables HERE that show by loan purpose the number of applications (204k+) and the number of loan originations (98k+).  Included are three summaries: 

1. By county
2. By race of borrower
3. By ethnicity of borrower. 

I have added a link in right pane labelled Oregon HMDA 2011 Data Summaries; the current table and any future 2011 HMDA PDF tables that I produce will be included in this linked file. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

MS Excel: Loan Level Detail for $17+ Billion in CY 2010 Oregon GSE Loans.

Up until now all of my posts on GSE CY 2010 data have been PDF files compiled into the PDF file linked in the right pane as Picture of GSE Assisted Households.

Today, I am beginning the posting of several GSE CY 2010 MS Excel workbooks that zero in on different geographies or areas of demographic interest. I believe this is the only place on the web where you will find GSE CY 2010 data with this level of individual loan detail, including loans in both rural and metro areas. [Kudos again to Roberta Ando for helping me put together the MS Access databases that were used to extract this data].

How to Download the Excel Workbooks

1. All of these Excel posts are included in a folder I have created on a cloud data sharing service, SpiderOak.  A link to that folder is HERE and it has also been added to the right pane as GSE CY 2010 Excel Files.[Ask me sometime about what a pain it was to find a web site that can host large file sizes].
2. The link above will open a web page.
3. From that web page you will see a “download” radio file on the right side that is supposed to allow you to download all Excel files in this folder as a single compressed file-I DO NOT recommend this method as I encounter errors in the size of the downloaded compressed file and in trying to open the file. 
4. INSTEAD you should A. Left mouse click on the underlined folder name on the LEFT side of the page [GSE 2010 Public Shared Excel]  to open the folder AND THEN B. Click the “download” radio button on the right side for that file to download each file individually in an uncompressed format.
5. After downloading the file(s), navigate to the directory where you downloaded the file and double click to open. 

First Excel Workbook: GSE Loans Excel Workbook 1: All Oregon GSE Loans [29.3MB] 

This workbook includes loan level data on 84,000+ loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in Oregon during CY 2010; The unpaid principal balance at acquisition for these loans was more than $17.1 billion.

In addition, to make the workbook easier to use, I created lookup formulas to add fields with NAMES for 8 of the 39 data elements; those additional columns begin at column “AN” of the Oregon CY 2010 GSE Data worksheet. These include columns with the county and MSA names, names for race and ethnicity, a name for the purpose of the loan, and a column that places the ratio of borrower income to median area income in one of 5 categories /“bins”.

The file includes a data file, a pivot table and READ ME sheet.The pivot table allows users to focus on geographies or demographics of interest; the default view is for a count of all loans by county for both GSE’s, broken out by income grouping in columns. Users can change the fields displayed in the pivot table to retrieve any combination of data using the data fields available.  

Sample questions the pivot table can answer:

1. How many loans were purchased by the GSE's in X CT, county, MSA and what percent went to borrowers with incomes below 100% of AMI? [Add race, ethnicity, gender breakouts].
2. How many investor loans were purchased and what were the borrower incomes?
3. How many home purchase vs refinance loans?
4. What was the average unpaid principal loan balance for different areas, races, ethnicity?
5. How many first time home buyer loans were purchased in CT, county, MSA, state?
6. How many loans were purchased in CT with higher minority %?

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon Drops 3 Ranks in Home Ownership Rates to 46th; Was One of Only 12 States to Add More Rental HH's than Homeowner HH's.

I have prepared a new 4 page legal sized PDF table file HERE that includes state level rental and home ownership household counts and changes, as well as home ownership rate changes, for 2000-2010.

Some observations: (50 States + District of Columbia and Puerto Rico).

1. Oregon was only 1 of 12 states where the increase in the number of rental households exceeded the increase in the number of home owner households. 
2. In Oregon rental households grew at a rate DOUBLE the rate of increase in home owner households (20.5% vs. 10.2%). [Nationally, renter households also grew at a higher rate than home owner households (14.2% vs 8.8%)]
   
3.  For these 52 areas, the overall home ownership rate decline was 1.6%; Oregon's home ownership rate decline was 3.2%, twice as much as the national decline. Only 8 states had a HIGHER rate of home ownership rate decline than Oregon from 2000-2010 [South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, North Carolina, Mississippi, Arkansas, Idaho, and Nevada].
4. Oregon's home ownership rate ranking dropped from 43rd to 46th, meaning that in 2010 only 5 states +DC had LOWER home ownership rates [Rhode Island, Nevada, Hawaii, California, New York, and the District of Columbia].

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon AND Portland Metro Had Lowest RENTAL Vacancy Rates in US in 1st Quarter, 2011; HO Vacancy Ranks Worse.

Daily Journal of Commerce story is HERE.  

I expanded a bit to create table below that shows vacancy rates and rankings for 1st Qtr 2011-2006 for both rentals and home ownership units.  (Rankings are best to worst among 51 states [includes DC] and 75 largest metro areas].

Table shows both Oregon and Portland Metro had the LOWEST rental vacancy rates in the country in 1st Qtr 2011. (While Oregon's rental vacancy rate is down from same quarter last year, the Portland metro rental vacancy rate actually bumped up slightly from same quarter last year).

For home ownership Oregon's vacancy rate ranked 43rd best [8th worst], and Portland's ranked 36th best in the first quarter of 2011. Important note: Despite the lower relative rankings, vacancy rates for both Oregon and Portland metro home ownership units are LESS than rental vacancy rates for the 1st Qtr 2011.

Detailed vacancy rate data for states and top 75 MSA's in country is available from Census HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

STATEWIDE: Racial/Ethnic Diversity in Oregon Cities/Places Above 20k Population, and In Oregon Counties.

My earlier post HERE focused on Census 2010 ethnic and racial diversity ratings and rankings for cities in the jurisdiction of the Portland Metro Council. 

This post will provide STATEWIDE details on Census 2010 racial/ethnic diversity index ratings and rankings for:

• Cities and places above 20,000 population.
• Counties.

The new table I prepared HERE has that information and includes links to USA Today source data. Some observations:

Cities and Places Above 20,000 in Population:

1. City of Portland ranked 9th; Woodburn, Aloha, and Bethany had the HIGHEST diversity index ratings.
2. Within 11 CITIES with 20k+pop in the Portland Metro Council jurisdiction, Portland moves to 5th place (It ranked 8th among Portland Metro Council cities with all population sizes).
3. Among cities/places with 50,000 or higher population Medford, Corvallis, Eugene, Springfield, Bend and Albany all had LOWER diversity index values than the statewide average. 
4. Among 29 cites and places with populations greater than 20,000 there were 6 places/cities [Woodburn, Aloha, Bethany, Hillsboro, Beaverton, and Gresham] where there was a better than 50% chance that "any two people chosen at random from a given census area were of different races or ethnicities." 

Counties:

1. Jefferson, Malheur, and Morrow have the highest racial and ethnic diversity index rankings; Washington Ranked 6th., Multnomah 8th., Clackamas 16th.
2. Only 9 counties statewide had diversity index values above the statewide average.
3. In the Portland metro area, only two counties (Multnomah, Washington) had diversity index values that were above the statewide average. 
4. Among 6 Oregon counties with population above 200,000 Marion county had the HIGHEST diversity index value and Lane had the LOWEST. 
5. Out of 36 counties, there were 3 counties [Jefferson, Malheur, Morrow] where there was a better than 50% chance that "any two people chosen at random from a given census area were of different races or ethnicities."

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregonian Politifact Digs Into Kitzhaber Administration Diversity, Concludes To Early to Tell.

Oregonian view is HERE, includes link to my earlier post HERE. 

Reporter has indicated to me that he will post link to the diversity report he received from Governor's Affirmative Action Officer, but I don't yet see it posted. 

Pleased that Oregonian says they will continue to track appointments; my feeling is that Kitzhaber is getting a gentleman's pass. I wonder also if Dudley had been elected and had a similar record to date whether he would have   drawn more critical attention from the media, like Kasich did in Ohio.   

(For what it's worth, I voted for Kitzhaber but am in the "trust, but verify" mode based on record to date). 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Quick Take Oregon Census 2010 Data: Hispanics Represented More than 40% of Population Growth, AND Numbers Grew MORE Than White Non Hispanics.

The Census Bureau has released Census 2010 redistricting information for Oregon today. Access today is for a LARGE FTP file, which is very complicated to work with; tomorrow same data is supposed to be available via a new version of the American Fact Finder website.

As a "Cliffs Notes" version, Census has released a summary series of  tables today in one Excel workbook . PR is HERE, Excel file is HERE:

My quick observations about enhanced table pasted below that I constructed using the Census Excel table as a starting point:

1. Overall, Oregon's population grew by 12%.
2. Oregon's White NOT Hispanic population grew by 5.2%.
3. Oregon's population growth for other minority races was substantial :African American, 24.3%; American Indian 17.7%; Asian 39.4%;Native Hawaiian, Pac Islander 68.1%.
4. Oregon's Hispanic population grew by 63.5 %.
5. The numerical increase in total Hispanic population [all races] exceeded that for White non Hispanics ( 174,748  vs. 148,232).
6. The growth in Hispanic population [all races] represented 42.7% of statewide population growth; white Non Hispanics represented a lesser 36.2% of total statewide population growth. 
7. "Two or More Races" accounted for 9.8% of total statewide population growth and "some other race" accounted for 14.6% of population growth.

Click to Enlarge

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

CoreLogic Mortgage Trends Report Includes Some Oregon and Portland Metro Data.

CoreLogic report is HERE, contains lots of interesting data and charts. Starting on PDF page 7 national, state, and top 25 Metro  market data as of November 2010 is summarized. I extracted Oregon, Portland, and select national data in the table pasted below.

Observations:

1. 28.8% of Portland metro's sales were distressed sales, slightly lower than 29.8% national average. Oregon's 31.5% distressed sales share was higher than the national average
2. Short sales in November 2010 in Portland metro were down 25% from prior year, and down 21.9% statewide.
3. Portland metro had about half of the state distressed sales (517 of 1,018)
4. Portland metro's 90+ delinquency rate was lower than the national average ( 5.6% vs. 7.9%); so to was Oregon's statewide 90+delinquency rate of 5.5%
5. Portland metro's house price index annual decline was higher than national average. (7.8% vs 5.1%); Oregon's 9.3% decline was even worse.
6. Portland metro's supply of distressed homes was significantly LESS than national average (12.4 months vs 16.1 months); statewide the average of 10.8 months was even better. 

Click to Enlarge

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon Economic Forecast: Housing Price Indices for US and Oregon Have Different Short Term and Longer Term Results.

Yesterday, Oregon released it's latest economic forecast; related materials can be found HERE.  From the quarterly other indicators Excel workbook, I extracted values for 4th quarter home price indices for Oregon and the US.

Trajectory of Projected Home Price Indices are DIFFERENT for Oregon than for US. 

The graph below shows DIFFERENT results for Oregon vs the US: 

• For Oregon the index price from 4th quarter CY 2010 to 2011 is expected to increase, but the US price index is expected to decrease. 
• Longer term, for Oregon the 4th quarter 2015 price index is projected to be still 6.4% BELOW the 4th quarter CY 2007 level, but for US the price index is expected to rebound to .5% HIGHER than the CY 2007 4th quarter level.

Click to Enlarge

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon County Level Details: $50 Billion in SF FHA, Fannie, and Freddie Loans for 231,000 Families in CY 2008 and CY 2009.

I recently published a summary of CY 2008 FHA, Fannie, and Freddie loans in Oregon, showing that 131,000 families received $21.8 Billion in loans from these federal agencies (Prior post is HERE).

This week FHFA released CY 2009 GSE data ahead of a September 30th deadline. The next set of GSE SF data for 2010 will not be released until September 2011.

In a first for any state in the country, I have been able to put together a comprehensive Oregon state and county summary of FHA , Fannie and Freddie SF loans for BOTH CY 2009 and CY 2008, including comparisons between those years. ( I combined GSE data with FHA data I have assembled over the last two years),

That analysis is in a single PDF file I created HERE. The 10 page file has 5 different tables that include totals for the state, individual counties, and the 5 metro Portland counties in Oregon. 

KEY FINDINGS:

The headers for each table highlight the key findings of this analysis:

1. COMBINED CY 2009 and CY 2008 Fannie, Freddie, and FHA SF Oregon Loans: $50+ BILLION, 231,000 Homes.   
2. Oregon CY 2009: $28.4 Billion in Federally Supported SF Home Loans, for 130,000+ Homes.
3. Oregon CY 2008: $21.8 Billion in Federally Supported SF Home Loans, for 101,000+ Homes.
4. CY 2009 to CY 2008 Change in Fannie, Freddie, and FHA SF Oregon Loans: Dollars Increased by $6.5 BILLION, Loans Increased by More than 28,000.
5. CY 2009 to CY 2009 Change in Fannie, Freddie, and FHA Single Family Oregon Loans: Dollars Increased by 30%, Loans Increased by 28%.  FHA Increases Were Even Larger: 49% Increase in Dollars, 43% Increase in Loans.      

Note: GSE data includes geography down to the Census Tract level. I am willing to work selectively with others to make the complete set of data for these 187,000+ Oregon Fannie and Freddie loans in CY 2009 and CY 2008 available for further analysis, including those interested in looking at loans to minorities and first time home buyers.  (With 40 data elements per loan, that's close to 7.5 million pieces of Oregon GSE data, but whose counting?:). 

Email me if you have an interest and a proposal and please include your phone number so we can talk. 

Originally created and posted in the Oregon Housing Blog.

Fannie, Freddie and FHA Oregon CY 2008: $21.8 Billion+ In Single Family Loans to 101,000+ Families.

I have created the first ever Oregon county summary level table HERE that shows Fannie, Freddie AND FHA single family lending for CY 2008. This table includes ALL counties in Oregon, not just metro areas that are reported in HMDA.

I can say "first ever" with confidence because the data required to create the table was a real pain to acquire, combine and summarize. (As with past mega projects, I blame it on Sisu).

Since we (taxpayers) now own all three of these organizations I thought you might be interested to know that:

1. 101,640 Oregon families received a CY 2008 loan that was insured or acquired by these three federally owned organizations.
2. $21.8 billion in Oregon SF loans were insured or acquired by these three federally owned organizations in CY 2008.
3. Fannie and Freddie accounted for 82%/(83,397) of all Oregon SF loans insured or acquired by these three organizations in CY 2008, and FHA 18% (18,243).
4. The 5 counties in Oregon that are in the Portland metro area received 52% (52,963) of all loans insured or acquired in Oregon by these organizations in CY 2008.
5. When compared to the 695,349 mortgages outstanding in Oregon (see my prior post on underwater loans HERE), these 101,640 loans in ONE year would represent 15% of ALL mortgages outstanding in Oregon (actual percentage is likely somewhat less because some 2008 loans have already been taken out through pay off or foreclosure).

Comparison--OHCS SF Loans in CY 2008: 1,598 Loans, $282 Million (Many were FHA insured or acquired by Fannie/Freddie)

To put these numbers in context, during CY 2008, the OHCS Oregon SF bond program originated 1,598 /$282 million in single family loans, many of which were either insured by FHA or acquired by Fannie and Freddie. (OHCS SF loan volume since CY 2008 has also dramatically decreased while I expect future CY 2009 data will show increases for FHA, and perhaps Fannie and Freddie also).

I have much, much more data from the CY 2008 Fannie/Freddie SF database I created and will working with other groups to make snapshots of that data available in the future. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

State of Black Oregon Report.

From Urban League of Portland, PR is HERE; report is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

$142 Million in Housing Recovery Act Spending, by Oregon County.

I have created a table HERE which shows the distribution of $142 million in RECOVERY act Housing spending by Oregon counties FY 2008-FY 2010 (through June).  More than 1,000 transactions are covered ; all forms of assistance - contracts, grants, direct payments, etc.- are included.

A summary view of this Oregon data from USAspending.gov is HERE; it shows OHCS receiving largest amount of this funding at $65+ million.

Observations:

• Since search is focused on ARRA funding this search does NOT include $88 Million in Oregon Hardest Hit Funding OR Oregon NSP 1 funding of $19.6 million.(Combined, that's $107.5 million NOT included in this report, and of course the Hardest Hit funding has yet to be obligated).
• 48% of Recovery Act spending flowed through Marion County, the seat of state government. Unfortunately while we know those dollars are spent throughout the state, the USASpending.gov data set I used does not include a place of performance county data element.
• HUD spending accounted for 67% of all Recovery Act Housing spending, with Department of Energy accounting for another 17% (primarily for Weatherization spending).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon HUD Recovery Act Spending and FTE Jobs by City, With Error Noted.

Follow up to prior national post on HUD Recovery Act jobs by state. Table below shows Oregon HUD Recovery Act awards, expenditures, FTE jobs by Oregon city:

Area	Awarded	Received	Expended	Expended/ Awarded %	FTE Jobs
Total	$ 88,443,163	$ 15,230,453	$ 15,936,370	18%	127.1
Ashland	$ 55,622	$ -	$ -	0%	0.0
Beaverton	$ 164,057	$ 23,508	$ 23,508	14%	0.2
Bend	$ 224,770	$ 113,880	$ 113,880	51%	0.8
Burns	$ 101,455	$ 87,729	$ 87,729	86%	0.0
Chiloquin	$ 389,187	$ -	$ -	0%	0.0
Coos Bay	$ 660,912	$ 92,437	$ 92,437	14%	6.0
Corvallis	$ 145,487	$ 110,408	$ 138,316	95%	1.1
Dallas	$ 778,062	$ 413,614	$ 413,614	53%	1.7
Eugene	$ 2,548,757	$ 312,105	$ 313,117	12%	5.0
Fairview	$ 81,318	$ 81,181	$ 81,181	100%	0.0
Grand Ronde	$ 1,693,209	$ 109,948	$ 31,530	2%	0.6
Gresham	$ 236,604	$ 45,968	$ 45,968	19%	1.0
Hermiston	$ 231,843	$ 156,911	$ 156,911	68%	0.8
Hillsboro	$ 2,353,581	$ 436,445	$ 436,445	19%	2.4
Jefferson	$ 108,932	$ 108,932	$ 108,932	100%	23.0
Junction City	$ 145,400	$ -	$ -	0%	0.0
Klamath Falls	$ 177,116	$ 166,991	$ 141,243	80%	2.1
La Grande	$ 279,261	$ 216,887	$ 276,621	99%	0.2
McMinnville	$ 158,502	$ 2,000	$ -	0%	0.0
Medford	$ 361,502	$ 101,431	$ 105,022	29%	0.0
Newport	$ 269,994	$ 216,651	$ 216,651	80%	0.0
North Bend	$ 2,362,519	$ 560,370	$ 560,370	24%	11.0
Ontario	$ 206,710	$ 120,559	$ 53,704	26%	0.0
Oregon City	$ 3,829,856	$ 504,711	$ 555,780	15%	10.2
Pendleton	$ 557,092	$ 166,994	$ -	0%
Portland	$ 16,632,177	$ 3,179,674	$ 4,044,882	24%	11.0
Roseburg	$ 637,490	$ 335,405	$ 335,405	53%	2.5
Salem	$ 47,857,171	$ 7,473,396	$ 7,475,311	16%	38.2
Siletz	$ 4,403,998	$ 30,319	$ 30,319	1%	5.0
Springfield	$ 164,302	$ 62,000	$ 96,738	59%	1.2
Warm Springs	$ 626,277	$ -	$ 756	0%	3.0

Error Noted:
Note that these are figures reported by recipients and subject to data entry and interpretation errors. For example, NO way that $100k 8 unit public housing project rehab in Jefferson (by Marion County PHA) produced 23 FTE jobs.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.