CY 2019 Oregon: Duplex Per Unit Permit Values 30%-46% BELOW SF Per Unit Permit Values; 3-4 Units 35%-63% Below.

Census has released preliminary CY 2019 housing permit counts and valuations. Final CY 2019 data will not be available until May. 

I extracted counts and valuations for Oregon, the City of Portland, and for several Oregon metro areas where duplex and 3-4 unit permits had been issued. (Prior related posts are HERE and HERE).

My focus today is a comparison of duplex and 3-4 unit AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT values to single family AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT values. This does NOT represent the final total cost/value/sales price for the different unit types. Excluded are neighborhood and market considerations, square footage and bedroom counts, and the cost of land.  (Note also that SF AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT values include both attached and detached SF units, so IF detached SF units alone were used SF AVERAGE PER UNIT values would be likely higher).

Nevertheless, the cost of construction is a key element in final housing costs/values. If per unit construction costs are lower and land is shared by more units there is a likelihood that sales prices and values will be lower on a per unit basis.

My analysis shows:

• Duplex AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT values were 30%-46% below AVERAGE SINGLE FAMILY PER UNIT PERMIT permit values.
• 3-4 Unit properties AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT values were 35%-63% below SINGLE FAMILY AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT.

Below I have pasted a graph illustrating these differences, along with a table with the values for each area and unit type. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

Portland Metro Policy Advisory Group Has TriMet Transit Equity Presentation on Wednesday Agenda.

Packet for MPAC meeting is HERE;  PDF page 48 is the start of the transit equity TriMet's PowerPoint presentation. 

[A 2011 Skanner interview with the TriMet transit equity Director Johnell Bell is HERE).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Hispanic Immigrant Earnings Vary by Metro Area, Age, Education; Portland Metro Area Data Available.

Urban Institute report, with maps and pull down data, is HERE. 

Report shows that Portland metro ranks 62 out of 75 metro areas with large Hispanic immigrant populations in average earnings for Hispanic immigrants, but when adjusted for age and education, Portland is one of 33 metro areas where there is no substantial difference in average incomes between Hispanic immigrants and non immigrants. (Note: Report says 76 metro areas, but Excel spreadsheet only shows 75).
 
Compared with workers born in the United States, Latino immigrants make on average 37 percent less in all the top 100 largest metros. But the study says that, taking into consideration age and education, Portland is one of 33 metro areas (out of 76 metro areas with large Hispanic immigrant populations) where there is NO substantive difference in earnings between Hispanic immigrants and native workers:

When taking into consideration age and education, we find that Latino immigrants make 7 percent less than native workers, demonstrating how important education is to earnings. To narrow it down further, take a look at the 76 metro areas with large populations of Latino immigrants. In 40 of those metros, Latino immigrants make less money than natives of comparable age and education level......In three metro areas-Detroit; Omaha; and Greensboro, North Carolina-Latino immigrants fare better, earning 6 to 11 percent more than comparable native workers. In 33 metro areas, there’s little to no difference between the earnings of foreign-born and US born workers with similar age and education.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

PEW: 2010 Portland Metro Residential Segregation by Income Was Second Lowest of 30 Metro Areas.

Web page for Pew study is HERE. Complete report is HERE.

Report data shows that Portland metro residential segregation by income did increase from 1980 to 2010, dropping from the lowest in the county to the second lowest among the 30 metro areas.  

Portland metro remained far below the national average in 2010 and the rate of increase in Portland metro was also below the national average.

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Update: 4 Metro PDX PHA's Share in $5.5 Million Workforce Training Grant.

Update: Added link to PDF file from April 21, 2012 Clackamas County Commission Meeting with MOU between housing authority and partners spelling out who does what.
===
PR from (Portland) Worksystems Inc. is HERE. 

Update: MOU between HACC and partners spelling out who does what is HERE. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

My Comments on Oregonian Locked Out Affordable Housing Series, Including Suggested Follow Up Actions.

As readers can imagine, I have been reading with interest the reporting by the Oregonian on the problems with the location of affordable housing in the Portland Metro area.  Whether you agree with the reporting or not, the commitment of four consecutive front pages stories on affordable housing is an unprecedented commitment of Oregonian resources.

Now that the series has concluded, I created a four page MS Word table that lists my comments AND (in the right column) related follow up actions that can help solve the problems identified in the series (and some affordable housing issues the series did not cover).

Because I may change and expand this MW Word document based on future thinking and feedback, I have:

• Included a version date at top of the page; currently that is June 6, 2012.
• Linked the file HERE in the right pane of the blog under the title "Oregonian Locked Out Series Comments and Action Items, June 2012". If I make changes to the current version of this document, I will do a new post pointing out the changes and change the version date at the top of the page. 

Feel free to send me comments on what I am missing or what you think I got wrong in this initial version.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

2011 Portland Metro Affordable Housing Inventory Excel File and More.

Metro staff has previously sent me a zip file with the data that I used to prepare my recent analysis [HERE] of problems and suggestive correction actions to their 2011 Regional Inventory of Regulated Affordable Housing report [HERE].  

Kudos to Metro staff for providing that data so readily.

Excel File I Created Has Merged Data in One Worksheet
Using data from three separate data sources in the Metro zip file, I created an Excel workbook HERE. In addition to the merged data worksheet, I added a pivot table and two county level summary worksheets, as well as a worksheet that shows the complete field list for the merged data. When you open the Excel workbook take a look at the READ ME worksheet for more background on the data in the workbook.  

The graph below is from the "County Shares by Income" worksheet in the workbook, and shows that in 2011 in the 3 County Portland metro area, Multnomah County had 47% of all the housing stock, but 82% of the regulated affordable housing units available to households below 50% of median family income. 

I have recommended that Metro provide a merged Excel worksheet similar to the one I prepared to make it easier for the public to explore this important data.

MORE Data Options Including MS Access and Map Files: 
For those of you who want more and the raw data to compile your own analysis, I have also uploaded HERE, the zip file of ALL data that Metro staff sent to me. 

It contains PDF files, map files, MS Access files, and a CSV file. The MS Access file was the source of two 2011 tables that I merged with the CSV census track block FIPS ID file , and it also includes some 2007 tables and a series of queries that may be of interest to some.

Excel Downloading Tip-This workbook was created in Excel 2007/2010 format. Some users report they cannot direct view Excel files in this format from within their browser and/or that Excel files they save end up with a compressed .zip file extension.

My suggestion is to RIGHT CLICK and save the file to your PC. Then navigate to the file you downloaded and look at its file extension. IF it appears as .ZIP extension, change the .ZIP extension to an Excel 2007/2010 extension (.xlsx), and THEN open the file with Excel 2007/2010.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Clackamas and Washington County PHA's Post Annual Plans for Comment.

Both the Washington County and Clackamas County housing authorities have posted their annual PHA plans for comment.  

The Clackamas County plan can be found HERE, and the plan from Washington County Housing Services is HERE. 

Combined these two PHA's administer about 5,000 HUD funded public housing and voucher units and their annual plans include important information about accomplishments and planned new activities as well as demographic information about the 11,400 families on their wait lists and the overall housing needs in their communities.

Opportunity to Comment

The Clackamas County PHA plan is open for public review from 1/19/2012 through 3/2/2012. Comments and questions about the plan can be directed to: Mary-Rain O'Meara, 503-655-8279 (momeara@clackamas.us)

The Washington County Housing Authority Board will hold a public hearing on their plan on Tuesday, April 3, 2012 at 10:00 a.m. at the Washington County Public Services Building, Auditorium 155 N. First Street, Hillsboro.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New Report: Equitable Foreclosure Recovery, Includes Portland, Seattle, and Minneapolis Metros.

Report from Northwest Area Foundation and PolicyLink is HERE and includes analysis of foreclosures in Minneapolis, Seattle, and Portland. (Portland detail starts on PDF page 16)

One excerpt, with related table pasted below: 

the Portland region, where poverty is generally less concentrated, exhibits the most equitable distribution of foreclosures: the share of people of color is only slightly higher in the highest foreclosure Zip codes than the share of people of color city-, county-, and region wide. Median incomes also are not extremely different. Foreclosures in Seattle and the Twin Cities are much more concentrated in lower-income communities and communities of color

Click to Enlarge

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Metro Economic Profile and World Ranking from Brookings.

Search by 200 world wide metro areas is HERE; Portland metro PDF is HERE.  

Portland has middle of pack rating for 2010-2011, near bottom from 2007-2010, and in top 20% from 1993-2007.

All North American profiles are HERE; main page is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Barry Apartment Report Winter Edition Out: Half of 2012 Portland Metro Production to be Public Sponsored.

You can view and print this report, focused on Portland metro, from link HERE. 

From the report: 

We expect to see permits for 2,000 to 2,500 new units in 2012, with half of the construction activity in Multnomah County. While this is below the trend line of the five years ended in 2008, we will see double the apartment construction in 2012 that we saw in 2010. We expect that half of this apartment construction will have public sponsorship or participation. [emphasis added].

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Use of ACS for CDBG Distribution Mixed Bag for Oregon Cities but Overall a Statewide Increase.

New report from HUD HERE previews distributional impacts of using the American Community Survey data for the first time, using FY 2011 data. While the projections are NOT official formula allocations for FY 2012 they do signal direction of shift in distributions resulting from using ACS data.  

Pages 103-104 show Oregon projected allocations for entitlements with details on the formula components, page 34 shows impact on Oregon's statewide /non entitlement grant. Pages 28-30 show biggest gainers and losers nationwide.

I have prepared Oregon PDF HERE showing summary impacts on individual grantees and statewide impact.

Would appreciate any additional thoughts/corrections from CDBG recipients added as comments to this post; note that while Oregon share of national CDBG may be increasing, overall CDBG funding, including Oregon, will be decreasing as a result of FY 2012 appropriations.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Case Shiller Index Records 4th Straight Monthly Increase.

The new Case-Shiller data for July 2011 press release is HERE. From the national release:

Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly increases; Las Vegas and Phoenix were down over the month and Denver was unchanged. On an annual basis, Detroit and Washington DC were the two MSA that posted positive rates of change, up 1.2% and 0.3%, respectively. The remaining 18 MSAs and the 10- and 20- City Composites were down in July 2011 versus the same month last year. After three consecutive double-digit annual declines, Minneapolis improved marginally to a decline of 9.1%, which is still the worst of the 20 cities.

I have pasted below the Portland metro data for the last 13 months. While the index is down annually 8.45% from July 2010, and 7.8% from January 2010, the .95% monthly increase is the fourth straight monthly increase, following nine consecutive months of decreases over the last 13 months. 

The table shows that Portland metro CS index is 30.78% higher than in December 2000.  The high (?) point was four years ago, in July of 2007, when the CS index for Portland was 79.61% higher than in December of 2000. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Tribune Picks Up on Growing Suburban Diversity.

Kudos to Steve Law and Portland Tribune for being first newspaper to publish Portland metro wide story on increased diversity in Portland metro suburbs, using as one source my prior posts on diversity in Oregon and Portland metro area cities.

His story in today's paper is HERE:  I count 15 bullet points that may qualify for you [and me] as "I didn't know that", including these five:

1.    Latinos form a majority in Cornelius, making it the first city in the Portland area to have a “minority majority.”
2.    Fairview has the area’s second-largest share of black residents, at 4.4 percent.
3.    Happy Valley is 17.4 percent Asian, more by far than any other area community.
4.    Northeast Portland’s Cully neighborhood is the most diverse neighborhood in Oregon.
5.    Portland’s Latino population grew 52.1 percent in the last decade, and accounts for 9.4 percent of the city. But Latinos reached double-digit proportions in 11 of the suburbs.

Story also adds details about most diverse Portland metro city, Wood Village:

In the past decade, Wood Village’s Latino population more than tripled, and accounts for 37 percent of the city of about 4,000. The Asian population nearly tripled, and the black population, though still modest, more than quadrupled.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Metro FY 2012 Proposed FMR Reduction Impact: $2.6 Million.

I used same methodology used for my earlier Chicago estimate of FMR reductions and produced the table below for the 6 county Portland metro area. Using estimated voucher counts shown in the table, impact would be a loss of $2.6 million annually from the proposed reduction of the 2 BR FMR for FY 2012. (This does not include any loss of admin fee that would result from a reduction in the 2 BR FMR).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Who Knew? In 2010, Among 8 Largest Cities in Portland Metro in Oregon, Lake Oswego Had Highest Minority Home Ownership Rankings.

I have prepared a Census 2010 sourced table that shows  home ownership rate data, including minority home ownership rate data and gaps, for the 8 Oregon cities in the jurisdiction of Metro with 10,000 or more total households. 

The two page table also includes rankings from best to worst (1 to 8) on 12 different minority home ownership metrics and best to worst rankings on 2 other metrics for overall homeownership rate and the white, non Hispanic home ownership rate.


Finally in the far left hand column on the first page the total counts of home owners and home ownership rates for all 25 cities in Metro's jurisdiction are shown.

The table is HERE and it has some surprises, especially with rankings found on page 2:

1. On 12 different metrics of minority home ownership, Lake Oswego has the highest/best ranking on 8 of those metrics.
2. Using those same 12 minority home ownership metrics, Tualatin was ranked the lowest/worst on 5 of these metrics.
3. Portland does not rank the highest or the lowest in any of the 12 minority home ownership metrics. It did have the 2nd lowest/best all minority home ownership rate gap.
4. Beaverton is ranked the lowest on 3 of the 12 minority home ownership metrics. And, among these 8 Portland metro cities, it also had the lowest overall home ownership rate, and the lowest white non Hispanic home ownership rate. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Case-Shiller Portland Monthly Home Price Index Inches Up for First Time in 11 Months.

The new Case-Shiller data for April 2011 press release is HERE. From the national release:

...[CS Indices] show a monthly increase in prices for the 10- and 20-City Composites for the first time in eight months. The 10- and 20-City Composites were up 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, in April versus March. Both indices are lower than a year ago; the 10-City Composite fell 3.1% and the 20-City Composite is down 4.0% from April 2010 levels. Six of the 20 MSAs showed new index lows in April – Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami and Tampa.Thirteen of the cities and both composites posted positive monthly changes.

I have pasted below the Portland metro data for the last 13 months (note that the last previous month that the Portland CS index went UP was in June of 2010)
 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portand Case Shiller Continues Slide; Comparisons with DJIA.

The new Case-Shiller data for March 2011 PR is out HERE. From the national release: 

...19 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down compared to March 2010. Twelve of the 20 MSAs and the 20-City Composite also posted new index lows in March. With an index value of 138.16, the 20-City Composite fell below its earlier reported April 2009 low of 139.26. Minneapolis posted a double-digit 10.0% annual decline, the first market to be back in this territory since March 2010 when Las Vegas was down 12.0%..

I have pasted below the Portland data for the last 13 months. 

Also pasted below is a comparison of Portland Case-Shiller index with the change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the last 10 years and since October of 2004, when the Portland Case-Shiller index was about where it is as of March 2011.

Observations:

1. The Portland Case-Shiller index actually out performed the DJIA over a 10 year period.
2. However, the Portland Case-Shiller index substantially under performs the DJIA comparing October 2004 to March 2011.
3. Timing is everything:)

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Metro Condo Price Drops Triple Overall Price Decline.

Housing Wire has story HERE. Says all homes median sale prices down 9.4% from year ago while median resale condo prices down 28.2%.

(OUCH! Visualize tear here from long time condo owner).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

May 2010 PDX Wage Data: Salaried Real Estate Agent Median Wages Were at 42% of 4 Person HUD Median Family Income.

Annually the Department of Labor releases occupational wage data by metro area.  The latest release occurred this week, and reports on data as of May 2010; the national metro data as a zipped Excel file is HERE.  

I dug into the reports and looked at the classification: 41-9022.00 - Real Estate Sales Agents. It is IMPORTANT to note that the data below is ONLY for salaried agents and does NOT include the self employed, who represent the largest share of real estate agents. (I am not aware of a public source of information on median wages of self employed real estate agents, if you know of one please let me know).

As you will see in the table pasted below for the Portland Metro area as of May 2010:

1. There were 670 jobs in this category.
2. The median wage for this classification was $29,610.
3. Dividing that real estate agent median wage by the 2010 HUD 4 Person Portland Median Family Income of $71,200 means that the Portland Metro median real estate sales agent wage was at 42% of the HUD median family income.
4. If the average real estate agent wage of $39,000 was used this would raise the average real estate agent wage to 55% of the HUD Portland Median Family Income.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.