Portland Case Shiller Index Records 4th Straight Monthly Increase.

The new Case-Shiller data for July 2011 press release is HERE. From the national release:

Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly increases; Las Vegas and Phoenix were down over the month and Denver was unchanged. On an annual basis, Detroit and Washington DC were the two MSA that posted positive rates of change, up 1.2% and 0.3%, respectively. The remaining 18 MSAs and the 10- and 20- City Composites were down in July 2011 versus the same month last year. After three consecutive double-digit annual declines, Minneapolis improved marginally to a decline of 9.1%, which is still the worst of the 20 cities.

I have pasted below the Portland metro data for the last 13 months. While the index is down annually 8.45% from July 2010, and 7.8% from January 2010, the .95% monthly increase is the fourth straight monthly increase, following nine consecutive months of decreases over the last 13 months. 

The table shows that Portland metro CS index is 30.78% higher than in December 2000.  The high (?) point was four years ago, in July of 2007, when the CS index for Portland was 79.61% higher than in December of 2000. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Case-Shiller Index Posts Second Consecutive Monthly Increase, 3rd Largest Monthly Increase in Nearly 5 Years.

The new Case-Shiller data for May 2011 press release is HERE. From the national release:

    ...S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices...showed a second consecutive month of increase in prices for the 10- and 20-City Composites. The 10- and 20-City Composites were up 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively, in May over April. Sixteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly increases; Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa were down over the month and Phoenix was unchanged. On an annual basis, Washington DC was the only MSA with a positive rate of change, up 1.3%. The remaining 19 MSAs and the 10- and 20- City Composites were down in May 2011 versus the same month last year. Minneapolis fared the worst posting a double-digit decline of 11.7%.

I have pasted below the Portland metro data for the last 13 months. While the index is down annually 9.11% from May 2010, the 1.25% monthly increase is the largest since April 2010 which saw an monthly increase of 1.84%, and is the third largest monthly increase since the 1.44% increase in June 2006, nearly 5 Years ago. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

Case-Shiller Portland Monthly Home Price Index Inches Up for First Time in 11 Months.

The new Case-Shiller data for April 2011 press release is HERE. From the national release:

...[CS Indices] show a monthly increase in prices for the 10- and 20-City Composites for the first time in eight months. The 10- and 20-City Composites were up 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, in April versus March. Both indices are lower than a year ago; the 10-City Composite fell 3.1% and the 20-City Composite is down 4.0% from April 2010 levels. Six of the 20 MSAs showed new index lows in April – Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami and Tampa.Thirteen of the cities and both composites posted positive monthly changes.

I have pasted below the Portland metro data for the last 13 months (note that the last previous month that the Portland CS index went UP was in June of 2010)
 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portand Case Shiller Continues Slide; Comparisons with DJIA.

The new Case-Shiller data for March 2011 PR is out HERE. From the national release: 

...19 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down compared to March 2010. Twelve of the 20 MSAs and the 20-City Composite also posted new index lows in March. With an index value of 138.16, the 20-City Composite fell below its earlier reported April 2009 low of 139.26. Minneapolis posted a double-digit 10.0% annual decline, the first market to be back in this territory since March 2010 when Las Vegas was down 12.0%..

I have pasted below the Portland data for the last 13 months. 

Also pasted below is a comparison of Portland Case-Shiller index with the change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the last 10 years and since October of 2004, when the Portland Case-Shiller index was about where it is as of March 2011.

Observations:

1. The Portland Case-Shiller index actually out performed the DJIA over a 10 year period.
2. However, the Portland Case-Shiller index substantially under performs the DJIA comparing October 2004 to March 2011.
3. Timing is everything:)

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Case-Shiller Portland Home Price Index Value Down to October 2004 Level.

National Case-Shiller release is HERE: 

Washington D.C. was the only market to post a year-over-year gain with an annual growth rate of +2.7%. Ten of the 11 cities that made new lows in January 2011 saw new lows again in February 2011. Detroit avoided another new low, managing a +1.0% increase in February over January, the only city with a positive monthly change. With an index level of 139.27, the 20-City Composite is virtually back to its April 2009 trough value (139.26); the 10-City Composite is 1.5% above its low.

Pasted below is table showing Portland Metro data for the last 13 months; the October 2004 index value for Portland was 133.67:

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Case Shiller Portland January 2001 Continues Down.

National PR is HERE: 

The 10-City Composite was down 2.0% and the 20-City Composite fell 3.1% from their January 2010 levels. San Diego and Washington D.C. were the only two markets to record positive year-over-year changes. However, San Diego was up a scant 0.1%, while Washington DC posted a healthier +3.6% annual growth rate. The same 11 cities that had posted recent index level lows in December 2010, posted new lows in January

Portland Index Down 7.8% Over Last 12 Months, Back to January 2005 Level.

Table below has monthly and yearly comparisons; January 2011 index of 135.8 is nearly identical to where it was in January 2005 (135.46):

 

Portland CS Vs. DJIA; DJIA Way Outperformed CS in Last Year, but Way Underpeformed in Last 10 Years. 

I think take away is that "timing means everything".  Graphic below shows a 1 YR vs 10 Year comparison between CS index and DJIA change (DJIA data is as of end of trading month):

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Case Shiller December 2010: Down 7.82% from Year Ago, 25.6% from July 2007 Peak; But CS Increase Still Handily BEATS the DJIA Since Dec. 2000.

National PR is HERE:

National Home Price Index declined by 3.9% during the fourth quarter of 2010. The National Index is down 4.1% versus the fourth quarter of 2009, which is the lowest annual growth rate since the third quarter of 2009, when prices were falling at an 8.6% annual rate. As of December 2010, 18 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down compared to December 2009. Both Los Angeles and San Francisco reported negative annual rates of return in December, leaving San Diego and Washington DC as the only two cities where home prices are increasing on a year-over-year basis, +1.7% and +4.1%, respectively.

Portland: Annual and Monthly Changes Continue Negative; Index Continues to Plummet to a New 2010 Low; But, Over 10 Years, CS Increase Remains Far Above DJIA Increase.

Annual: The Portland index value of 138.23 for December is a 7.82% decrease from December 2009. This follows a 6.96%  annual decrease from November 2009, a 5.15% annual decrease in October, and a 3.62% annual decrease from the September.

Monthly: The Portland December index is a 1.2% decrease from November.

Historical: As of December 2010 the Portland home price index had declined 25.6 % from the July 2007 peak, and by 6.2% since January, 2010. The most recent time the Portland CS index was below the current 138.23 was in February of 2005 when the index value was 136.35.
NEW TABLE: A new table I have constructed and pasted below shows the ANNUAL change (December to December) in the CS index for the Portland Metro area in the last 10 years.  It shows that the 

1. While the Portland Metro index remains 33.1 % HIGHER than in December 2000; but just three years ago, in December 2007, the index was 75.7% higher than in December 2000. 
2. HOWEVER, the DJ Industrial Average increased by only 7.3% from December 29, 2000 to December 31, 2010 [(11,577.51/10787.99)-1]. This means that the 33.1% Portland Metro CS index increase for a similar 10  year period was 353.3% HIGHER than the 7.3% DJIA increase [(33.1% /7.3%)-1]

Click to Enlarge

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 
 

Portland Case Shiller November 2010: Down 7% from Year Ago, Down 24.7% from July 2007 Peak.

National PR is HERE:

In November, only four MSAs – Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC – showed year-over-year gains. The Composite indices remain above their spring 2009 lows; however, eight markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Portland , Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007, meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen even further than the lows set in the spring of 2009

Portland: Annual and Monthly Changes Continue Negative; Index Continues to Plummet to a New 2010 Low, Reaching March 2005 Levels.

Annual: The Portland index value of 142.16 for November is a 7 % decrease from November 2009. This follows a 5.2% annual decrease in October , a 3.6% annual decrease from the September 2009 index value, a 2.3 % decrease from the August 2009 index value, and a 1.2% annual decline from July 2009.

Monthly: The Portland November index shows a 1.58% decrease from October. This follows a 1.48% decrease from September and a 1.85% decrease from August.

Historical: As of November 2010 the Portland home price index had declined 24.7 % from the July 2007 peak. It is now 2.6% BELOW the previous 2010 low in March and down 5% since January, 2010. The most recent time the Portland CS index was below the current 139.92 was in March of 2005 when the index value was 138.3.

Table below shows Portland changes by month for last year:

Month	CS Index	Change From July 2007 Peak	Change Prior Month	Change Prior Year	Change March 2010 Low
November 2010	139.92	-24.7%	-1.58%	-7.0%	-2.6%
October 2010	142.16	-23.5%	-1.48%	-5.2%	-1.0%
September 2010	144.30	-22.3%	-1.85%	-3.6%	0.5%
August 2010	147.02	-20.9%	-0.88%	-2.3%	2.4%
July 2010	148.33	-20.1%	-0.27%	-1.2%	3.3%
June 2010	148.73	-20.3%	0.51%	0.2%	3.6%
May 2010	147.98	-20.7%	1.18%	0.69%	3.0%
April 2010	146.25	-21.6%	1.84%	-0.4%	1.8%
March 2010	143.61	-23.0%	-0.06%	-2.8%	0.0%
February 2010	143.69	-23.0%	-2.44%	-4.8%	0.1%
January 2010	147.29	-21.0%	-1.77%	-4.2%	2.6%
December 2009	149.95	-19.6%	-0.29%	-5.4%	4.4%
November 2009	150.38	-19.4%	0.33%	-7.5%	4.7%

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Pic Worth 1,000 Words: Graph Shows 5 Year Case Shiller Peak Price Declines for All Areas.

In thinking about the just released Case Shiller October 2010 data it occurred to me that a graph showing the change in the index for all areas from the peak index value for each area might provide a good snapshot of the relative change in prices. 

So HERE is that one page graph. It shows :

• Portland's decline from it's peak in the last 5 years is 23.8%;
• Portland's decline is slightly more moderate than the 25.6% decline from Seattle's 5 year peak;
• Portland's decline is MUCH more moderate than the 57% decline in the 5 year peak for Las Vegas and the 53.4% decline from the 5 year peak in Phoenix. 

Whether this means that Portland is likely to see higher future declines to catch up with other areas is unknown.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Case Shiller: Index Dips Again to Spring 2005 Levels, Off 23.5% from July 2007 Peak, and Off 5.2% in Last Year.

National PR is HERE:

[October data] ..show a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 18 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites in October compared to what was reported for September 2010. The 10-City Composite was up only 0.2% and the 20-City Composite fell 0.8% from their levels in October 2009. Home prices decreased in all 20 MSAs and both Composites in October from their September levels. In October, only the 10-City Composite and four MSAs – Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC – showed year-over-year gains. While the composite housing prices are still above their spring 2009 lows, six markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices started to fall in 2006 and 2007, meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen beyond the recent lows seen in most other markets in the spring of 2009.

Portland: Annual and Monthly Changes Continue Negative; Index Plummets to New 2010 Low, Reaching Spring 2005 Levels.

Annual: The Portland index value of 142.16 for October is a 5.2% decrease from October 2009 , and follows a 3.6% annual decrease from the September 2009 index value, a 2.3 % decrease from the August 2009 index value, and a 1.2% annual decline from July. 

Monthly: The Portland October  index shows a 1.48% decrease from September, a 1.85% decrease from August, and an August index that was a .88% decrease from July.

Historical: As of October 2010 the Portland home price index had declined 23.5 % from the July 2007 peak; and is now 1% BELOW the previous 2010 low in March; and is down 3.5% since January. The last time the Portland CS index was near 142.16 was in April and May of 2005 when the values were 141.14 in April and 144.36 in May.

Table below shows Portland changes by month for last year:

Month	Index	Change From July 2007 Peak	Change Prior Month	Change Prior Year	Change March 2010 Low
October 2010	142.16	-23.5%	-1.48%	-5.2%	-1.0%
September 2010	144.30	-22.3%	-1.85%	-3.6%	0.5%
August 2010	147.02	-20.9%	-0.88%	-2.3%	2.4%
July 2010	148.33	-20.1%	-0.27%	-1.2%	3.3%
June 2010	148.73	-20.3%	0.51%	0.2%	3.6%
May 2010	147.98	-20.7%	1.18%	0.69%	3.0%
April 2010	146.25	-21.6%	1.84%	-0.4%	1.8%
March 2010	143.61	-23.0%	-0.06%	-2.8%	0.0%
February 2010	143.69	-23.0%	-2.44%	-4.8%	0.1%
January 2010	147.29	-21.0%	-1.77%	-4.2%	2.6%
December 2009	149.95	-19.6%	-0.29%	-5.4%	4.4%
November 2009	150.38	-19.4%	0.33%	-7.5%	4.7%
October 2009	149.88	-19.6%	0.11%	-9.9%	4.4%

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Case Shiller Index Continues Decline in September.

National PR is HERE:

    U.S. National Home Price Index declined 2.0% in the third quarter of 2010, after having risen 4.7% in the second quarter. Nationally, home prices are 1.5% below their year-earlier levels. In September, 18 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down; and only the two composites and five MSAs showed year-over-year gains. While housing prices are still above their spring 2009 lows, the end of the tax incentives and still active foreclosures appear to be weighing down the market.

Portland: Both Annual and Monthly Changes are Negative, Again.
The Portland index value of 144.30 for September is a 3.6% decrease from the September 2009 index value, and follows a 2.3 % decrease from the August 2009 index value and a 1.2% annual decline from July.  The Portland index has now decreased each month this year compared to this same month last year.

The Portland September index was a 1.85% decrease from August, and the August index was a .88% decrease from July.

As of September 2010 the Portland home price index had declined 22.3 % from the July 2007 peak, was now only .5% above the March 2010 low, and is down 2% since January.

Table below shows Portland changes by month for last year:

Month	Index	Change From July 2007 Peak	Change Prior Month	Change Prior Year	Change March 2010 Low
September 2010	144.30	-22.3%	-1.85%	-3.6%	0.5%
August 2010	147.02	-20.9%	-0.88%	-2.3%	2.4%
July 2010	148.33	-20.1%	-0.27%	-1.2%	3.3%
June 2010	148.73	-20.3%	0.51%	0.2%	3.6%
May 2010	147.98	-20.7%	1.18%	0.69%	3.0%
April 2010	146.25	-21.6%	1.84%	-0.4%	1.8%
March 2010	143.61	-23.0%	-0.06%	-2.8%	0.0%
February 2010	143.69	-23.0%	-2.44%	-4.8%	0.1%
January 2010	147.29	-21.0%	-1.77%	-4.2%	2.6%
December 2009	149.95	-19.6%	-0.29%	-5.4%	4.4%
November 2009	150.38	-19.4%	0.33%	-7.5%	4.7%
October 2009	149.88	-19.6%	0.11%	-9.9%	4.4%
September 2009	149.72	-19.7%	-0.49%	-11.8%	4.3%

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Case Shiller Index for Portland Decreases, Again.

National PR is HERE:

[Prices]... show a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites in August compared to what was reported for July 2010. The 10-City Composite was up 2.6% and the 20-City Composite was up 1.7% from their levels in August 2009. Home prices decreased in 15 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites in August from their July levels.

Portland: Both Annual and Monthly Changes are Negative, Again.
The Portland index value of 147.02 for August is a 2.29 % decrease from the August 2009 index value and follows a July annual decrease of  a 1.2%; with the exception of May and June, the Portland index has decreased each month this year compared to this same month last year.

The Portland August index was a .88% decrease from July.

As of August 2010 the Portland home price index had declined 20.85 % from the July 2007 peak, but was up 2.4% from the March 2010 low.

Table below shows Portland changes by month for last year:

Month	Index	Change From July 2007 Peak	Change Prior Month	Change Prior Year	Change March 2010 Low
August 2010	147.02	-20.9%	-0.88%	-2.3%	2.4%
July 2010	148.33	-20.1%	-0.27%	-1.2%	3.3%
June 2010	148.73	-20.3%	0.51%	0.2%	3.6%
May 2010	147.98	-20.7%	1.18%	0.69%	3.0%
April 2010	146.25	-21.6%	1.84%	-0.4%	1.8%
March 2010	143.61	-23.0%	-0.06%	-2.8%	0.0%
February 2010	143.69	-23.0%	-2.44%	-4.8%	0.1%
January 2010	147.29	-21.0%	-1.77%	-4.2%	2.6%
December 2009	149.95	-19.6%	-0.29%	-5.4%	4.4%
November 2009	150.38	-19.4%	0.33%	-7.5%	4.7%
October 2009	149.88	-19.6%	0.11%	-9.9%	4.4%
September 2009	149.72	-19.7%	-0.49%	-11.8%	4.3%
August 2009	150.46	-19.3%	0.27%	-12.5%	4.8%

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Case Shiller Index for Portland Decreases, Again.

National PR is HERE:

..annual growth rates in 16 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites slowed in July compared to June 2010. The 10-City Composite is up 4.1% and the 20-City Composite is up 3.2% from where they were in July 2009. For June they were reported as +5.0% and +4.2%, respectively. Although home prices increased in most markets in July versus June, 15 MSAs and both Composites saw these monthly rates moderate in July

Portland: Both Annual and Monthly Changes are Negative, Again.
The Portland index value of 148.33 for July is a 1.2% decrease from the July 2009 index value of 150.06. This is a reversal from the year to year increases in May and June, and the 5th month this year that the year to year change was negative.

The Portland July index value was a .3% decrease from June, reversing monthly increases of .51% in June, 1.18% in May, and 1.84% in April.

As of July 2010 the Portland home price index had declined 20.1% from the July 2007 peak, but was up 3.3% from the March 2010 low.

Table below shows Portland changes by month for last year:

Month	Index	Change From July 2007 Peak	Change Prior Month	Change Prior Year	Change March 2010 Low
July 2010	148.33	-20.1%	-0.3%	-1.2%	3.3%
June 2010	148.73	-20.26%	0.51%	0.18%	3.6%
May 2010	147.98	-20.7%	1.2%	0.69%	3.0%
April 2010	146.25	-21.6%	1.8%	-0.4%	1.8%
March 2010	143.61	-23.0%	-0.1%	-2.8%	0.0%
February 2010	143.69	-23.0%	-2.4%	-4.8%	0.1%
January 2010	147.29	-21.0%	-1.8%	-4.2%	2.6%
December 2009	149.95	-19.6%	-0.3%	-5.4%	4.4%
November 2009	150.38	-19.4%	0.3%	-7.5%	4.7%
October 2009	149.88	-19.6%	0.1%	-9.9%	4.4%
September 2009	149.72	-19.7%	-0.5%	-11.8%	4.3%
August 2009	150.46	-19.3%	0.3%	-12.5%	4.8%
July 2009	150.06	-19.5%	1.1%	-13.9%	4.5%

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.