Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Portland Case Shiller December 2010: Down 7.82% from Year Ago, 25.6% from July 2007 Peak; But CS Increase Still Handily BEATS the DJIA Since Dec. 2000.

National PR is HERE:
National Home Price Index declined by 3.9% during the fourth quarter of 2010. The National Index is down 4.1% versus the fourth quarter of 2009, which is the lowest annual growth rate since the third quarter of 2009, when prices were falling at an 8.6% annual rate. As of December 2010, 18 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down compared to December 2009. Both Los Angeles and San Francisco reported negative annual rates of return in December, leaving San Diego and Washington DC as the only two cities where home prices are increasing on a year-over-year basis, +1.7% and +4.1%, respectively.
Portland: Annual and Monthly Changes Continue Negative; Index Continues to Plummet to a New 2010 Low; But, Over 10 Years, CS Increase Remains Far Above DJIA Increase.

Annual: The Portland index value of 138.23 for December is a 7.82% decrease from December 2009. This follows a 6.96%  annual decrease from November 2009, a 5.15% annual decrease in October, and a 3.62% annual decrease from the September.

Monthly: The Portland December index is a 1.2% decrease from November.

Historical: As of December 2010 the Portland home price index had declined 25.6 % from the July 2007 peak, and by
6.2% since January, 2010. The most recent time the Portland CS index was below the current 138.23 was in February of 2005 when the index value was 136.35.

NEW TABLE: A new table I have constructed and pasted below shows the ANNUAL change (December to December) in the CS index for the Portland Metro area in the last 10 years.  It shows that the 
  1. While the Portland Metro index remains 33.1 % HIGHER than in December 2000; but just three years ago, in December 2007, the index was 75.7% higher than in December 2000. 
  2. HOWEVER, the DJ Industrial Average increased by only 7.3% from December 29, 2000 to December 31, 2010 [(11,577.51/10787.99)-1]. This means that the 33.1% Portland Metro CS index increase for a similar 10  year period was 353.3% HIGHER than the 7.3% DJIA increase [(33.1% /7.3%)-1]
Click to Enlarge
 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog
 

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