Habitat Portland/ John Gray Gets Big Play in NYT.

Story is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Case Shiller November 2010: Down 7% from Year Ago, Down 24.7% from July 2007 Peak.

National PR is HERE:

In November, only four MSAs – Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC – showed year-over-year gains. The Composite indices remain above their spring 2009 lows; however, eight markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Portland , Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007, meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen even further than the lows set in the spring of 2009

Portland: Annual and Monthly Changes Continue Negative; Index Continues to Plummet to a New 2010 Low, Reaching March 2005 Levels.

Annual: The Portland index value of 142.16 for November is a 7 % decrease from November 2009. This follows a 5.2% annual decrease in October , a 3.6% annual decrease from the September 2009 index value, a 2.3 % decrease from the August 2009 index value, and a 1.2% annual decline from July 2009.

Monthly: The Portland November index shows a 1.58% decrease from October. This follows a 1.48% decrease from September and a 1.85% decrease from August.

Historical: As of November 2010 the Portland home price index had declined 24.7 % from the July 2007 peak. It is now 2.6% BELOW the previous 2010 low in March and down 5% since January, 2010. The most recent time the Portland CS index was below the current 139.92 was in March of 2005 when the index value was 138.3.

Table below shows Portland changes by month for last year:

Month	CS Index	Change From July 2007 Peak	Change Prior Month	Change Prior Year	Change March 2010 Low
November 2010	139.92	-24.7%	-1.58%	-7.0%	-2.6%
October 2010	142.16	-23.5%	-1.48%	-5.2%	-1.0%
September 2010	144.30	-22.3%	-1.85%	-3.6%	0.5%
August 2010	147.02	-20.9%	-0.88%	-2.3%	2.4%
July 2010	148.33	-20.1%	-0.27%	-1.2%	3.3%
June 2010	148.73	-20.3%	0.51%	0.2%	3.6%
May 2010	147.98	-20.7%	1.18%	0.69%	3.0%
April 2010	146.25	-21.6%	1.84%	-0.4%	1.8%
March 2010	143.61	-23.0%	-0.06%	-2.8%	0.0%
February 2010	143.69	-23.0%	-2.44%	-4.8%	0.1%
January 2010	147.29	-21.0%	-1.77%	-4.2%	2.6%
December 2009	149.95	-19.6%	-0.29%	-5.4%	4.4%
November 2009	150.38	-19.4%	0.33%	-7.5%	4.7%

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Trulia Puts Portland In Top 10 Places to Rent vs. Buy.

Housing Wire story is HERE.  A full list of rent vs buy cities is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Case Shiller: Index Dips Again to Spring 2005 Levels, Off 23.5% from July 2007 Peak, and Off 5.2% in Last Year.

National PR is HERE:

[October data] ..show a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 18 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites in October compared to what was reported for September 2010. The 10-City Composite was up only 0.2% and the 20-City Composite fell 0.8% from their levels in October 2009. Home prices decreased in all 20 MSAs and both Composites in October from their September levels. In October, only the 10-City Composite and four MSAs – Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC – showed year-over-year gains. While the composite housing prices are still above their spring 2009 lows, six markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices started to fall in 2006 and 2007, meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen beyond the recent lows seen in most other markets in the spring of 2009.

Portland: Annual and Monthly Changes Continue Negative; Index Plummets to New 2010 Low, Reaching Spring 2005 Levels.

Annual: The Portland index value of 142.16 for October is a 5.2% decrease from October 2009 , and follows a 3.6% annual decrease from the September 2009 index value, a 2.3 % decrease from the August 2009 index value, and a 1.2% annual decline from July. 

Monthly: The Portland October  index shows a 1.48% decrease from September, a 1.85% decrease from August, and an August index that was a .88% decrease from July.

Historical: As of October 2010 the Portland home price index had declined 23.5 % from the July 2007 peak; and is now 1% BELOW the previous 2010 low in March; and is down 3.5% since January. The last time the Portland CS index was near 142.16 was in April and May of 2005 when the values were 141.14 in April and 144.36 in May.

Table below shows Portland changes by month for last year:

Month	Index	Change From July 2007 Peak	Change Prior Month	Change Prior Year	Change March 2010 Low
October 2010	142.16	-23.5%	-1.48%	-5.2%	-1.0%
September 2010	144.30	-22.3%	-1.85%	-3.6%	0.5%
August 2010	147.02	-20.9%	-0.88%	-2.3%	2.4%
July 2010	148.33	-20.1%	-0.27%	-1.2%	3.3%
June 2010	148.73	-20.3%	0.51%	0.2%	3.6%
May 2010	147.98	-20.7%	1.18%	0.69%	3.0%
April 2010	146.25	-21.6%	1.84%	-0.4%	1.8%
March 2010	143.61	-23.0%	-0.06%	-2.8%	0.0%
February 2010	143.69	-23.0%	-2.44%	-4.8%	0.1%
January 2010	147.29	-21.0%	-1.77%	-4.2%	2.6%
December 2009	149.95	-19.6%	-0.29%	-5.4%	4.4%
November 2009	150.38	-19.4%	0.33%	-7.5%	4.7%
October 2009	149.88	-19.6%	0.11%	-9.9%	4.4%

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New Portland Tribune Story Has Some Metro Portland and Oregon Short Sale Data.

Portland Tribune reporter Steve Law also picked up on the CoreLogic report on short sales (my prior blog post on their report is HERE).  His story HERE also includes some Portland and Oregon data from CoreLogic and Portland RMLS:

Short sales accounted for 6 percent of all home sales in Portland the first five months of the year and 13 percent of all homes listed for sale in the city as of early June, according to the Regional Multiple Listing Service, or RMLS.

Oregon had the 17th-highest number of short sales among the states during the past two years, according to CoreLogic...

At the beginning of the year, 79,268 home and condo owners in the Portland area owed more on their mortgage than their dwelling was worth, according to CoreLogic, which was then a unit of First American. That means one out of every six families with mortgages in the Portland area were “under water.” 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

April Case Shiller Portland Data Shows Biggest Month to Month Increase Since Sept 2005, but Still Down From 1 Year Ago.

National PR is HERE:

“Home price levels remain close to the April 2009 lows set by the S&P/Case Shiller 10- and 20-City Composite series. The April 2010 data for all 20 MSAs and the two Composites do show some improvement with higher annual increases than in March’s report. However, many of the gains are modest and somewhat concentrated in California. Moreover, nine of the 20 cities reached new lows at some time since the beginning of this year. The month-over-month figures were driven by the end of the Federal first-time home buyer tax credit program on April 30th."

For Portland, the 1.84% monthly increase is the largest recorded since September 2005, however the index value of 146.25 is still a .41% reduction from the year ago April 2009 index value of 146.85. 

(With ending of homebuyer tax credit in April it would not be surprising if next month sees a monthly reduction from the April index figure).

As of April 2010 the Portland home price index had declined 21.27% from the June 2007 peak.

Table below shows monthly Portland changes for last year:

Month	Index	Change Since Peak	Change Prior Month	Change Prior Year
April 2010	146.25	-21.3%	1.8%	-0.4%
March 2010	143.61	-22.7%	-0.1%	-2.8%
February 2010	143.69	-22.6%	-2.4%	-4.8%
January 2010	147.29	-20.7%	-1.8%	-4.2%
December 2009	149.95	-19.3%	-0.3%	-5.4%
November 2009	150.38	-19.0%	0.3%	-7.5%
October 2009	149.88	-19.3%	0.1%	-9.9%
September 2009	149.72	-19.4%	-0.5%	-11.8%
August 2009	150.46	-19.0%	0.3%	-12.5%
July 2009	150.06	-19.2%	1.1%	-13.9%
June 2009	148.47	-20.1%	1.0%	-15.2%
May 2009	146.97	-20.9%	0.1%	-16.3%
April 2009	146.85	-20.9%	-0.6%	-16.0%

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Case Shiller Data for March Shows Portland Home Price Index Continued Decline to New Low; Pace of Decline Slowed.

National PR is HERE:

"13 of the 20 metro areas showed a decline in March compared to February...Eight MSAs posted new index lows in March – Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, Portland and Tampa."

For Portland, the .1% monthly reduction is improvement over much larger 2.4% monthly reduction in February, and 2.8% year to year reduction is also better than 4.8% year to year decline from last month. 

As of March 2010 Portland home price index has declined 22.7% from June 2007 peak.

Table below shows Portland changes for last year:

Month	Index	Change Since Peak	Change Prior Month	Change Prior Year
March 2010	143.61	-22.7%	-0.1%	-2.8%
February 2010	143.69	-22.6%	-2.4%	-4.8%
January 2010	147.29	-20.7%	-1.8%	-4.2%
December 2009	149.95	-19.3%	-0.3%	-5.4%
November 2009	150.38	-19.0%	0.3%	-7.5%
October 2009	149.88	-19.3%	0.1%	-9.9%
September 2009	149.72	-19.4%	-0.5%	-11.8%
August 2009	150.46	-19.0%	0.3%	-12.5%
July 2009	150.06	-19.2%	1.1%	-13.9%
June 2009	148.47	-20.1%	1.0%	-15.2%
May 2009	146.97	-20.9%	0.1%	-16.3%
April 2009	146.85	-20.9%	-0.6%	-16.0%
March 2009	147.68	-20.5%	-2.1%	-15.3%

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

My Portland Hardest Hit Outreach Session Meeting Notes.

Below are MY notes from this morning's Hardest Hit outreach session in Portland. (IF you attended and think I overlooked or misstated anything I ENCOURAGE you to add a comment using the link at the bottom of this post).

(There were about 25 in attendance, including folks from throughout Portland Metro area, and members from several Congressional offices were also in attendance).

Staff comments

• Will be some effort to limit back end loan ratio, perhaps to no more than 51-55%
• HH funds could leverage Bank of America to extend up to 9 months loan forbearance for unemployed, underemployed borrowers. [This would be in addition to the months of reduced payments for unemployed/underemployed that HH funds would purchase].
• Likely that allocation process to entitlements will not be the same for HH as it was for NSP. More direct contact between OHCS and counseling agencies and lenders.
• May not need to be unemployed or underemployed to qualify, "in danger of" might be a way to reach intended target.
• May be possible for homeowner to participate in unemployment related relief AND then later loan modification or short sale programs. (Throw in the counseling support and some families may benefit from three pots of HH funding). 
• Anticipated actual funds available for program late Summer at earliest, more likely early Fall

Audience comments:

• Continuing problem with lenders (and Fannie and Freddie?) not making properties available for sale near ultimate price that they are receiving at foreclosure.
• Assessment of borrower by counselors may need to take into account future employment outlook.
• Include line item for legal support services in application, make Treasury say it is not eligible.
• Continuing owner occupant restriction may prevent borrower from taking job elsewhere in future.
• Important to create homeowner continuing incentives to stay with home.
• Use of 120% LOCAL median income is important for Portland Metro.
• Congressional reps encouraged industry to advise of specific HAMP issues, they are trying to compile listing of those issues for follow up.
• Need for outreach and marketing of program as well as training for counselors.

Audience Comments on Allocation:

• I did not hear a specific % or formula advocated.
• May need to include projections of future foreclosures (some caused by ARM resets) and/or reassess foreclosure rates on regular basis and reprogram funds accordingly.
• Portland metro may offer better prospects than some areas for future employment. Areas where construction was major employment source may not come back, or take longer to come back economically.
• Suggestion that allocations within Multnomah county may be useful.
• Important that allocation formulas take into account location of minority homeowners. [Note my prior post HERE has Oregon county, city, and congressional district minority home ownership rates from the 2008  American Community Survey. An ACS query within that post will provide the actual counts of minority homeowners].

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Housing Bureau Awards $5.2 M for Affordable Rentals.

PR is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon Median Family Income Changes 2009-2010 and 2000-2010.

The table I constructed HERE compares Median Family Incomes for the State of Oregon and Oregon Counties and MSA's. 

Data for 2000,2008,2009, and 2010 are included; comparisons include $$ and % for 2009-2010 AND 2000-2010.  

Who had the biggest % increase in the last year? Since 2000? Hint: It wasn't Portland-take a look at the table and you may be surprised.

(As always if you see any math problems, please DO let me know).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregonian Front Porch Has Scoop on Metro Portland Rental Vacancies.

HERE. (and pasted below).

[Note: An earlier REIS report summarized HERE says that Portland had the largest quarterly .7% decline in metro market rents, bucking a national trend that saw rent increases during the quarter].

1. Downtown Portland apartment vacancies twice as high regional average: Apartment vacancies in downtown swelled to 14.1 percent in the first quarter of 2010, more than twice the regional average of 6.9 percent, according to the first quarter report from real estate firm Marcus & Millichap. The downtown market, from South Waterfront to the Pearl District, has seen a glut of new luxury apartments. In a post earlier this morning, appraiser Mark Barry said there will more than 3,100 luxury rental units built downtown between mid 2008 to late 2010. That doesn’t account for the shadow inventory of rented condos. Outside of the downtown market, Marcus & Millichap forecasts that job growth will spur people who are now doubling up to move into apartments. Vacancy, the firm says, will peak by late-2010. Rents will continue to slide and concessions to renters will rise through 2010. More affordable apartments for 20-somethings in close-in eastside neighborhoods will outperform the market this year, the firm says. And east Vancouver near SEH America’s new campus will be a growth market in the next few years.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregonian Front Page RE Blog Has Link to Three Portland Metro MF Market Updates.

Oregonian Front Page RE Blog post is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon Public Facility Authority Holding Jan 19th Hearing on Central City Concern Refinancing of 450 Units in 5 Projects.

Saw this in yesterday's Oregonian Public Notices

Notice of Public Hearing A public hearing will be held by the Executive Director of the Oregon Facilities Authority beginning at 1:00 p.m. on Tuesday, January 19, 2010 at the State Office Bldg., 800 NE Oregon St., Room 1E, Portland 97232 with respect to the issuance of not more than $4,550,000 aggregate face amount of tax exempt bonds to refinance five outstanding loans (the "Loans") used to acquire five facilities, to finance the remodeling of two of those facilities, and to pay costs of issuance the bonds.

Each of the facilities to be refinanced or remodeled is used by Central City Concern ("CCC"), a non-profit organization qualified under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, in furtherance of its charitable mission to mitigate the effects of homelessness, poverty and addictions. Each of the facilities to be refinanced or remodeled is described below:

• Henry Building - an approximately 60,802 square foot facility located at 309 SW Fourth Ave., Portland, OR with 153 units of low income housing, space used by CCC in its Community Engagement Program, and approximately 6,637 square feet of commercial space.
• Letty Owings Center - an approximately 17,074 square foot facility located at 2545 NE Flanders St., Portland, OR used as a 37-unit residential drug treatment facility.
• Medford Building - an approximately 27, 840 square foot facility located at 506 NW 5th Ave., Portland, OR with 62-units of low income housing and approximately 12,300 square feet used as a homeless shelter.
• Sally McCracken Building - an approximately 35,989 square foot facility located at 532 NW Everett, Portland, OR with 95-units of low income housing and CCC administrative office space.
• Hatfield Building -an approximately 48,250 square foot facility located at 726 W. Burnside St., Portland, Oregon with 106 units of low income housing and approximately 4,082 square feet used by Central City Concern's Recovery Center.

Interested individuals may express their views, both orally and in writing. Oral comments at the public hearing will be limited to 10 minutes for each speaker. Written testimony may be submitted to the Oregon Facilities Authority, 1600 Pioneer Tower, 888 SW Fifth Avenue, Portland, Oregon, 97204, until the close of business on Monday, January 18, 2010, or at the hearing.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Brookings MetroMonitor Shows Portland Economy Under Performing Relative to 100 Metro Area Average.

Brookings MetroMonitor compares metropolitan performance for 100 largest metro areas on a quarterly basis in areas like employment/unemployment, changes in domestic product, housing prices, and REO.

Portland metro profile is HERE and table pasted below, you will see that Portland is under performing the average for metro areas in ALL metrics, except for the metric "REOs per 1,000 mortgageable properties".

Employment	Portland	Rank*	100-metro average	U.S. average
Change in employment from peak (2008Q1)	-5.9 %	70	-4.3 %	-4.6 %
One-quarter change in employment	-0.9 %	81	-0.5 %	-0.5 %
Unemployment
Unemployment rate	10.7 %	73	9.6 %	9.5 %
One-year percentage point change in unemployment rate	5.0 points	90	3.6 points	3.5 points
Gross metropolitan product (GMP)
Change in GMP from peak (2008Q2)	-5.5 %	84	-2.4%	-2.5%
One-quarter change in GMP	-0.1 %	93	0.8%	0.8 %
Housing prices
One-year change in housing prices	-6.0 %	79	-3.0 %	-1.3 %
Real estate owned properties (REOs)
REOs per 1,000 mortgageable properties	2.89	58	4.32	3.51
One-quarter change in REOs per 1,000 mortgageable properties	0.57	91	0.17	0.20

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Case Shiller Home Price Index: Portland UP Second Month in a Row.

The June 2009 Case Shiller home price index data was released today.

For the Portland metro area:

• For the second month in a row the Portland index INCREASED, this time by 1%; the annual index remains down, 15.2% below June 2008.
• Portland's monthly change ranking also INCREASED by 1 notch, returning to the same place it held in April (13th) (As recently as January Portland had ranked 6th best in the rate of monthly decline). I show EVERY area except Las Vegas and Detroit with a monthly index increase.
• Portland's year to year change ranking remained at 9th best in June.
• Portland has out performed Seattle over the last year; Seattle month to month change was 0.4% and their yearly change was -16.1% vs 1% and -15.2% for Portland.
• The Portland index is down 20.4% from it's record high of July 2007.

I have updated my monthly tables showing Portland and other metro data and rankings HERE.

The national release HERE notes:

"The U.S. National Composite rose in the 2nd quarter compared to the 1st quarter of 2009. This is the first time we have seen a positive quarter-over-quarter
increases in three years. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted monthly increases.."

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Case Shiller Index: For First Time Since May 2008, Portland Monthly Index Shows a Minor Increase.

May 2009 Case Shiller home price index data was released today.

For Portland:

• For the first time since May 2008, the monthly change was POSITIVE, albeit minor at .08%. (May 2008 had a .4% month to month increase)
  
• Despite the monthly increase, Portland's monthly change ranking dropped from 13th to 14th (best) as other metro areas did even better than Portland. (As recently as January Portland had ranked 6th best in the rate of monthly decline). I count 15 metro areas now showing monthly index INCREASES, an item not noted in the national CS press release.
• Portland's year to year decline continued to set a record reaching 16.27%.
• Portland's metro ranking for year to year change also dropped a notch to 9th (best).
• The Portland index is now down 21.2.% from it's record high of July 2007.

I have updated my monthly tables showing Portland and other metro data and rankings HERE.

The national release HERE notes:

"As of May 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to where they were in the middle of 2003, indicating that the three years of appreciation that occurred from 2003-2006 were all given back in the following three years."

My Note: The Portland index of 146.97 for May 2009 is close to the index of 144.36 in May of 2005, not 2003 (The May 2003 Portland index was 116.94, so May 2009 Portland index is 26% higher than in May of 2003, and 2% higher than in May of 2005).

Case Shiller: Portland Annual Decline Tops 15%, Increasing Monthly Decline Drops Ranking by 3 Spots.

National release is HERE.

In the updated monthly comparison for Portland I prepared HERE, the year to year decline continues to set records, reaching 15.3%.

The monthly decline also picked up from 1.9% in February to 2.1% in March; the Portland index is now down 20.8.% from it's record high of July 2007).

Portland's metro ranking for year to year change remained at 7th (best). However, Portland's accelerating rate of monthly decline dropped Portland's monthly change ranking from 8th to 11th best.

April YTD Portland Data: SF $$ Sales Volume Down 38%; $765 Million From 2008, $1.8 Billion from 2007.

My analysis of latest RMLS Portland Metro sales data is HERE. (Most recent post is always linked in right pane as Portland Metro SF Sale Data.

Table and graph show the combined effects of a 30% decline in the number of sales with a 12% decline in the average sales price.

Graph on page 2 illustrates that compared to YTD in 2007, the dollar volume of sales declined by $1.8 Billion, and a $765 Million since 2008 YTD.

Oregonian's Front Porch blog post from Ryan Frank HERE has link to RMLS report.

Charlotte Observer Story on "The New Homeless".

HERE.

(Note: Portland March unemployment rate was 11.1% vs 11.4% for Charlotte).

Portland HUD Housing Market Study, May 1, 1969.

I am busy putting together a consolidated listing of materials related to the upcoming 75th anniversary of FHA, including both national and Oregon specific materials.

As a tease to the larger FHA 75th Anniversary release that will be coming later this month, today marks the 40th anniversary of a HUD Portland Metro market study (Dated May 1,1969) that I discovered as part of my research.

The study includes both multifamily and single family permit data, housing needs analysis, and information about employment, incomes, etc.

Go retro and get a little perspective from the past; take a look at the study HERE.