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It's been a while since I did any in depth Case Schiller index analysis, so let's call this my election analysis since it will include comparisons to start of Obama administration.
Excel file HERE and embedded below shows:
- Portland CS home price index has declined 11.3% from January 2009, and 25.5% from its peak month of April 2007.
- Portland Ranks 15th Best (Out of 20 Metro Areas) In August 2012-January 2009 Change Comparison.
- But Portland Rank Improves to #8 When Ranked by Change from August 2012 to Its Peak Month.
- Among Western Metro Areas, Only Dallas (#1) and Denver (#2) Have Better Rankings When Comparing August 2012 to Peak Month (for That Metro Area).
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.
In addition to the overall market index Case Schiller also published index values by home price range for each market; their most recently non seasonally adjusted index for this data set in Excel is HERE.
I did a quick analysis that shows that
- The home price index (143.39) for the middle price tier for Portland metro homes ($207,926 - $311,708) is the highest of all price tiers AND has the highest year to year increase (6.5%).
- Homes in the lowest tier (prices less than $207,926) had the largest year to date increase at 10.7%.
- Homes in the highest price tier continue to drag down the overall index with lower year to year (7%) and year to date increases (2.7%).
The table below has the related data:
| Metric |
Under $207,926 |
$207926 -
$311,708 |
(Over $311,708) |
Overall Market |
| Index Value |
141.24 |
143.39 |
138.49 |
140.8 |
| YTY Change |
10.7% |
9.7% |
7.0% |
8.3% |
| YTD Change |
3.0% |
6.5% |
2.7% |
3.6% |
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.
National PR is HERE.
Portland's index value of 140.8 for August is up 8.3% since January, up 3.6% from August 2011, up .49% from the prior month, and down 24.5% from the July 2007 peak index value of 186.51.
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.
National PR is HERE:
"13 of the 20 metro areas showed a decline in March compared to February...Eight MSAs posted new index lows in March – Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, Portland and Tampa."
For Portland, the .1% monthly reduction is improvement over much larger 2.4% monthly reduction in February, and 2.8% year to year reduction is also better than 4.8% year to year decline from last month.
As of March 2010 Portland home price index has declined 22.7% from June 2007 peak.
Table below shows Portland changes for last year:
| Month | Index | Change Since Peak | Change Prior Month | Change Prior Year |
| March 2010 | 143.61 | -22.7% | -0.1% | -2.8% |
| February 2010 | 143.69 | -22.6% | -2.4% | -4.8% |
| January 2010 | 147.29 | -20.7% | -1.8% | -4.2% |
| December 2009 | 149.95 | -19.3% | -0.3% | -5.4% |
| November 2009 | 150.38 | -19.0% | 0.3% | -7.5% |
| October 2009 | 149.88 | -19.3% | 0.1% | -9.9% |
| September 2009 | 149.72 | -19.4% | -0.5% | -11.8% |
| August 2009 | 150.46 | -19.0% | 0.3% | -12.5% |
| July 2009 | 150.06 | -19.2% | 1.1% | -13.9% |
| June 2009 | 148.47 | -20.1% | 1.0% | -15.2% |
| May 2009 | 146.97 | -20.9% | 0.1% | -16.3% |
| April 2009 | 146.85 | -20.9% | -0.6% | -16.0% |
| March 2009 | 147.68 | -20.5% | -2.1% | -15.3% |
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.
Large national release HERE includes states and some Metro areas, including Portland.
OFHEO/FHFA says Portland metro index (which includes both refinance and purchases) declined by 5.2%, ranking 240th amongst metro areas. (Metro area information starts on page 30 of release).
Note however that the 5.2% Portland FHFA/OFHEO 1 year price index decline (page 39 of the FHFA/OFHEO release) is SUBSTANTIALLY less than than the 13.1% yearly decline for Portland reported by Case Shiller today (my post on Case Shiller index, from earlier this morning, is HERE).
For STATES, I constructed a table HERE that compares states (for states index uses purchase data only, no refinances).
It shows that Oregon ranks 37th in year to year change, and 38th in quarterly change. When looked at over 5 year period however, Oregon ranks 6th best. And since 1991, Oregon ranks 3rd best.
Interesting story in NLIHC Memo to Members HERE caught my eye this morning.
I went back to the linked Case-Shiller tiered data referenced in the story and constructed a table that shows annual metro area price declines by pricing tier.
As NLIHC story indicates, Portland was the only metro area where the annual decline in lower tiered prices was less than the overall price change.
As far right column in my analysis HERE shows, the lower tiered price home annual decline of 5% for Portland metro area was 25% less than the overall Portland metro decline of 6.6%.
In contrast, in Minneapolis the price decline for lower tier priced homes was 41% greater than the overall decline.
Pretty interesting, no?
