CORRECTED--FINAL Data: ALL Oregon Housing/Transportation Affordability Data for 2,800 Block Groups, Places, Metro Cities, Counties, and CBSA's.

Correction
I discovered that the Oregon Block Group data worksheet included data for only the Portland CBSA, including WA state portion.  I copied and pasted data for 18 other Oregon CBSA's (major PITA) into that worksheet-there is now housing and transportation data for nearly 2,800 block groups now, not 1,400. If you downloaded workbook previously I recommend you discard and download the updated version. 

Apologies for the error.
--------------
HUD/DOT/EPA have finally opened their long awaited housing and transportation affordability portal.

I  have downloaded from the new location (housing and transportation) affordability portal ALL the available Oregon data.
 
The new Excel workbook HERE, and embedded below, starts with a worksheet with THREE graphs showing the share of income that a 3 person rental HH at 50% of MFI is projected to spend for housing and transportation costs. The graphs include 

1. Portland Metro Cities
2. All Oregon CBSA's
3. All Oregon counties.

I have also included these worksheets:

1. A table of contents, that includes a listing of worksheet and an explanation of additional data fields found in the CBSA and Block Group level worksheets. This TOC worksheet also includes a link to the HT data dictionary.
2. A worksheet with all Oregon county level HT affordability data.
3. A worksheet with all Oregon CBSA level HT affordability data.
4. A worksheet with ALL US CBSA level HT affordability data.
5. A worksheet with all HT affordability data for nearly 2,800 census block groups from Oregon CBSA's (Includes state of Washington BG in Portland CBSA).

All of the data worksheets include lengthy column headers I created using coded values in the downloaded data. Column headers for renter HH;s are highlighted in yellow. Note that there are 8 distinct households modeled by income and composition ranging from a single household at the national poverty rate to the dual earner household at 150% of area income. Each of those households types are further modeled by tenure: all households, home owner households and renter households.  The end result is that each geography has 100+ columns of data.



Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

Metro's MPAC Puts Affordable Housing in Parking Lot for Rest of 2012.

Metro's MPAC had been previously scheduled to discuss affordable housing at their June 26th meeting. 

I looked at the posted agenda for that meeting and can now see that affordable housing has been removed from all future agendas for CY 2012, and is now in the "parking lot" category, along with Metro's equity strategy and the equity atlas.  (Editorial comment/SNAP!: Some would say affordable housing has been in Metro's parking lot for a long, long time). 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

PDX Metro Cities and ALL Oregon Places: Housing/Transportation Affordability BETA Data.

The day after my recent post HERE, the links to the Beta Housing Transportation affordability portal mysteriously no longer worked. Good NEWS is that as of 6 AM Thursday they NOW appear to be working again.

I hope the portal links remain available for this long delayed project.

Before links when dead I had downloaded Oregon data the night before for Oregon places, counties, and 1,400+ block groups.  

Each level of geography has values for 11 different metrics for 12 specific housing types.  For example there is a combined housing/ transportation share of income cost metric for a Low Income , 50% of HUD MFI household, a similar metric for a Retiree, 80% of Median Income for the Region household, etc., etc..
 
To make it easier to follow the different housing types, I added a row with column headers that I created that combines the housing type, the income level, and the metric for each of the 11 different household types. (I retained the coded values from the HUD data at the top of the worksheet). Column headers/metrics for each housing type include the number of household members, the number of workers, the number of autos, etc.  (A link to data dictionary from portal is HERE).

I have posted an Excel workbook with Oregon BETA data for Portland Metro cities and ALL Oregon places HERE and also embedded it below. 

The initially visible worksheet is a graph showing by Portland Metro cities, the share of income spent for housing/transportation by a 3 person family at 50% of HUD MFI; tabs at bottom will get you to other two worksheets. 

I would confirm this data with the data you can, as of Thursday AM, now download from the portal. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

UPDATED: 2011 AHS Data Includes Portland Metro Data.

Update:  I have posted an Excel workbook with Portland metro summary tables on my SkyDrive HERE and also embedded below.


----
Haven't looked at detailed data available, but includes American Housing Survey data for Portland metro area. Census Fact Finder AHS data is HERE.

Sample Data:
Portland median household income 

• For renters, $34k, 
• For home owners, $70K

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Metro's Construction Excise Tax Reporting and Grant Making Has Some Significant Issues.

I have reviewed Metro's reporting of local construction excise tax collection and permitting activity as well as their evaluation criteria for grant making (that uses collected excise taxes) and have discovered some significant issues: 

• Metro is not collecting and aggregating required information from local governments.
• Metro's grant evaluation committee does not have the information necessary to evaluate the variable rate of local affordable housing production, a seemingly key factor that directly relates to the "The benefits and burdens of growth and change are distributed equitably" evaluation criteria. 
• The Metro grant evaluation committee meeting is not on the Metro calendar and presumably is not open to the public. 
• There has never been a full audit of the Metro construction tax excise tax program, including reporting by Metro.
• The current $12,000 fee cap at the $10 million construction permit value level for individual projects has not been reevaluated. (Note that local SDC charges on a per unit basis can easily exceed $6k).

Background
Metro's administrative rules CURRENTLY require quarterly reporting by local governments of key construction excise tax metrics: 

1. The number of building permits issued that quarter;
2. The aggregate value of construction;
3. The number of building permits for which CET exemptions were given;
4. The aggregate value of construction for the exempted construction;
5. The aggregate amount of CET paid;
6. The amount of CET administrative fee retained by the local government

Metro receives monthly or quarterly reports from local governments, but :

• Does NOT require reporting on the number of permits.
• Does NOT aggregate the data for all of the required reporting metrics. 

Metro's only reporting of construction excise tax local activity is in a quarterly $$ collected report that does NOT include local detail on the:

1. Total number of permits or total $$ of construction.
2. Number of permits granted and $$ exempted for projects greater than $10 million, where the current excise tax is frozen at $12,000.
3. Total number of permits and $$ exempted for affordable housing.(Search the quarterly report using "affordable" as a keyword and there are no results).

The failure to aggregate local reporting data for all CURRENTLY required data elements means there is no way for the evaluation committee or Metro Council to consider the variable rate of affordable housing production by local governments that directly relates to the "The benefits and burdens of growth and change are distributed equitably” evaluation criteria. 

Recommended Corrective Actions:

1. Metro staff should regularly assemble and publish a quarterly Excel spreadsheet showing data for ALL the metrics required by their CURRENT Admin rule. 
2. Metro's quarterly report should spell out the variable local level of the number and amount of construction permit $$ for exemptions granted for affordable housing. (Affordable housing unit counts should also be added to the data elements required by their admin rule). 
3. Metro's evaluation committee should consider the variable rate of local affordable housing permitting and construction $$ in it's grant making cycle. 
4. The membership of the evaluation committee should include an affordable housing industry representative, and the meetings of the committee should be open to the public.  
5. Metro staff should reevaluate the current $12,000 fee cap at the $10 million construction permit value level for individual projects. 
6. The Metro Auditor should consider conducting a full audit of the program, including the publication of complete comparative local historical data on the number and value of affordable housing construction exempted from the CET.

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Foothills Urban Renewal Goes Down, Lake Oswego Affordable Housing Funding with It.

Despite a motion from new Councilman Gustafson to table the resolution to repeal the Foothills Urban Renewal Area and Plan, the new Council was determined to kill it and it was killed by a vote of 4 to 2 (would have been 5 to 2 if the Mayor was in town; Councilwoman Jordan was the other vote to table the motion). This means that $6.5 million in TIF funding for affordable housing in Lake Oswego is lost.

I very much appreciated support letters from Oregon ON and Enterprise to keep the renewal area and plan in place; my written testimony is HERE.  The Chamber of Commerce and School District also testified in support of keeping the Foothills Urban Renewal area and plan, but to no avail.

In addition to my oral testimony, Pegge McGuire of the Fair Housing Council of Oregon also testified in person and sat through the nearly 4 hour session.

I will be working to provide Metro with information about Lake Oswego's rejection of affordable housing funding, which should be a factor in evaluating LO applications for competitive regional grants including construction excise funding and discretionary transportation funding.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Metro Council State Legislative Priorities for Thursday January 24th Meeting Include Support for Voucher Source of Income Legislation.

Council packet HERE at PDF page 67 says:

Affordable housing:  Support legislation clarifying that receipt of federal rent subsidies like Section 8 vouchers is not grounds for denying tenancy.

Readers will recall that this addition occurred as a direct result of a request from new Council member Sam Chase.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Metro Councilman Chase Pushes Council to Add Affordable Housing to Their State Legislative Agenda at Thursday Meeting.

Story from in house Metro reporter HERE; story says that Metro to consider legislative agenda at Thursday Jan 17th meeting.[Thanks to heads up from Oregon ON].

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

HUD Readies Housing Location Affordability Portal Ready for Mid January Launch.

A summary of a December 2012 meeting document with current status detail is HERE ; HUD's website with much more information about this effort is HERE. 

I anticipate that the portal will include a consumer level tool to estimate transportation/housing costs under different scenarios as well as a census tract level tool to assist in affordable housing and transportation planning and evaluation efforts.  

This new HUD portal will likely replace/supplement the existing H+T website developed by the Center for Neighborhood Technology in Chicago. ( I suspect that the Center will likely play a continuing role in the evolution of the HUD portal).
 
( I note that Andy Cotugno from Portland's Metro was one of technical review panel consulted in the development of the Portal).  

A snip from the December meeting summary:

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

For First Time DOT New/Smart Start Grant Programs Include Consideration of Preserving and Expanding Affordable Housing; Public Comment Sought on Expanded Policy Guidance.

A newly published final rule for the DOT's final Smart Starts grant program is HERE; comments received on the affordable housing provisions are discussed in the preamble (pg 19) and are included in the final rule (pgs 46-47).

A Notice of PROPOSED policy guidance which significantly expands on the final rule is HERE.  Affordable housing policy guidance, including evaluation criteria, are found on pages 19, 13, 25-26. The comment period for the proposed guidance policy runs through March 11,2013; the docket for the Notice of proposed policy guidance is HERE.

9 comments previously received on the now final regulation with keyword "Oregon" are HERE; 18 comments with keyword phrase "Fair Housing" are HERE; and finally 62 comments with keyword phrase "affordable housing" are HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Lake Oswego City Council Does the Right Thing: Approves Foothills Urban Renewal Plan With $6.5 Million in TIF for Affordable Housing.

By a 4-3 vote the Lake Oswego City Council on Tuesday night adopted an Urban Renewal Plan for Foothills that includes a $6.5 million TIF authorization for affordable housing; this occurred at the end of a continuation of a public hearing that started at the December 4th Council meeting.

While modest given the community wide need and the projected $574 million as completed assessed value of the Foothills project, this committment :

• Is the first ever LO local commitment of (future) funds for affordable housing;  
• Is equivalent to 8.75 times the Clackamas County 2012 HUD HOME allocation of $743k.

The City Council action caps a year long effort that was only successful because of the support of members of the City Council, the Planning Commission, dedicated work from City staff and their consultants, and repeated testimony and support of multiple non profit groups and local citizens. [I count in excess of 10 Foothills meetings in the last year].

My testimony for the December 4th public hearing is HERE; similar testimony was presented by Enterprise Community Partners, NW Housing Alternatives, NOAH, the Fair Housing Council of Oregon, Housing Development Center, and Housing Land Advocates.

Video from Dec. 4th Meeting
During the first City Council meeting on December 4th, I offered oral testimony as did Martha Mclennan from NW Housing. Martha and Michelle Haines from REACH have attended several Foothills related City Council sessions and I very much appreciate their in-person participation.

I have loaded a VERY large video of December 4th public hearing to Internet Archive HERE and embedded it also below. Public testimony starts at 11:50; my testimony and Martha's start at 35:47. You can either view this video on line or download it (1.2GB!).

In a day or so you should be able to view the Dec 18th City Council meeting video on line from the cable access website HERE.

 

For their support this past year I want to specifically recognize these individuals and organizations:

Mayor/City Council 
Mayor Jack Hoffman
Counselor Tierney 
Counselor Moncrief  
Counselor Jordan

Lake Oswego Planning Commission

City Staff and Consultants
Brant Williams
Jane Blackstone
Sin Sidaro
Denny Egner
Sara Selden

Elaine Howard; Elaine Howard Consulting, LLC
Abe Farkas, Nick Popenuk; ECONorthwest
Christe White, Matt Brown; Williams, Dame, and White
John Warner, Bluetree Strategies

Housing Non Profits
Pegge McGuire, Fair Housing Council of Oregon
Bill Van Vliet and Rob Prasch, Network of Affordable Housing
Amanda Saul, Enterprise Community Partners
Robin Boyce and Cathey Briggs, Housing Development Center
John Miller, Oregon Opportunity Network
Martha McClennan, Northwest Housing Association
Ellen Johnson, Rebecca Kennedy, Christopher Marin, Jenny Logan; Housing Land Advocates
Michelle Haines and Dee Walsh; REACH

LO Citizens
Tom Brennan, 50+ Board Chair, CAC Member
Scott Bullard, Board member, Northwest Housing Association
Michelle Haines (REACH Housing Development Director)

I am worried that despite my best efforts, I may have forgotten someone; if so PLEASE bring to my attention and I will update the listing in this post. 

The Future; Foothills Benefits Far Exceed 6 Cents a Year Average Annual Cost to LO Homeowner
The changes in Lake Oswego City Council membership effective in January 2013 will no doubt cause a reexamination of the Foothills Plan. As a Lake Oswego resident I am confident that a fair review of the plan will find the benefits from the projects included in the plan (including affordable housing) FAR exceed the costs.

The Benefits:

• 9,000 years of income restricted affordable housing.
• Physical benefits include additional parking, street improvements, a new pedestrian plaza, and significantly better access to Foothills Park and the river.
• Financial benefits include a 10% increase in city wide assessed values and a 4500%+ increase from current Foothills property tax revenue; a $35 million in increased property tax revenue that will be SHARED with taxing districts during the UR Plan; and a $7.6+ million annual increase in property tax revenue after the plan is completed. 

The Costs: An Average of 6 Cents a Year.

• For a LO home with an assessed value of $250,000 the projected cost impact is an average of 6 cents a year during the life of the urban renewal plan. 

The administrative record of the last year is replete with testimony and data on the need for affordable housing in Lake Oswego and the feasibility of financing that future housing without any impact on current property tax revenues.

Sustaining Progress From This Year Will Require Others to Step Up Monitoring in the Coming Months/Years
I will continue to work to try to occasionally monitor Foothills progress but won't be able to make the same time intensive commitment as I did during the past year.

I  am looking to others to monitor planned meetings of the LO City Council, LO Planning Commission, and LO Redevelopment Agency and to alert me so that I can publish related information on the blog. 

Thanks again to all that participated in this important year long effort.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Look Up Portland Metro HH Growth by City 2010-2035, by Elderly Non Elderly, and by Income Grouping.

The Excel file HERE includes a simple lookup that produces two tables AND graphs of 2010-2035 projected household growth for any Portland metro city (including Vancouver).  

To see data for ANY Portland metro city all the user has to do is select the city (or Metro total) in a one cell pull down menu.

The first table and graph shows household growth counts of households for elderly and non elderly households further broken out by income groupings: 

• All incomes, 
• Incomes above $50k
• Incomes below $50k, 
• Incomes below $25k, 
• Incomes below $15k 

The second table and graph (to the right of the first table and graph) shows the share of HH growth by elderly and non elderly for those same income groupings. 

As an example, the 2 page PDF HERE shows the two tables and graphs for the Portland metro area. 

Take Away: 
Elderly Represent 76% of the Projected Growth in Households with Incomes Below $15k, Only 33% of Growth in Households with Incomes Above $50k.
The biggest take away from these graphs is that across the Portland metro area elderly households represent a very high share of the projected growth in low income households. The elderly represent 76% of the growth in households below $15k annual income, but only 33% of the growth in households with incomes above $50k. 

Notes: 
1. Metro uses this Census definition of income (which does include social security income, but does not include housing assistance):

Census money income is defined as income received on a regular basis (exclusive of certain money receipts such as capital gains) before payments for personal income taxes, social security, union dues, medicare deductions, etc. Therefore, money income does not reflect the fact that some families receive part of their income in the form of noncash benefits, such as food stamps, health benefits, subsidized housing, and goods produced and consumed on the farm. In addition, money income does not reflect the fact that noncash benefits are also received by some nonfarm residents which may take the form of the use of business transportation and facilities, full or partial payments by business for retirement programs, medical and educational expenses, etc.

2. The Excel file also contains a datasheet I constructed using Metro TAZ level household data and a pivot table that uses that datasheet. This will allow others to do additional analysis of projected 2010-2035 household data by income and by age. 

3. It would be useful to have further breakouts from Metro by tenure for the household forecast, as elderly households may be income poor, but asset rich in terms of home equity and other investments that could be converted to produce additional income.

4. The main worksheet in the workbook is password protected to prevent inadvertent data entry; the cell for the city is not protected to permit selection of the city for analysis.  

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

Presentations from Regional Age Friendly Communities Event this Week.

The Oregon Gerontological Association has posted presentation materials HERE from past Thursday's regional Age Friendly Communities event held at the Monarch. 

I did some web surfing with my IPAD during the meeting and the most detailed HOUSING provisions in a formal plan that I saw was from Clark County/ Southwest Washington Agency on Aging and Disabilities HERE.  (Housing section is in Chapter 2,  PDF Pgs 27-43).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

"Age Friendly Communities" Session on Thursday; My Estimate of Portland Metro Projected Low Income Elderly Household Growth.

Saw an invite and will be attending an "Age Friendly Communities" meeting at the Monarch Hotel off of I-205 on Thursday from 9 to 12 AM; REQUIRED paid registration is HERE.  From a flyer for the event: 

Representatives of age‐friendly efforts in Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington (OR) and Clark Counties (WA) will present. Metro Councilor Shirley Craddick will also join the conversation and facilitate polling of participants. 

Coincidentally, Andree Tremoulet, Commonworks Consulting had alerted me to very useful materials from Seattle HERE with background on their analysis of elderly affordable housing needs through 2035, and possible solutions to the growing needs for senior affordable housing. 

(Possible Seattle solutions Appendix HERE includes recognition of specific Home Forward and Vancouver Housing Authority low income elderly programs).

My Estimate of Portland Metro Elderly Housing Forecasts by Income From 2010-2035; 76% of Lowest Income HH Growth Will be Elderly Households
Metro has published household forecasts by income range and age; my prior related post, with an Excel file, is HERE. 

I took that data and prepared a two page PDF with data and graphs HERE that summarizes household totals for ALL of the TAZ [Transportation Area Zones] areas in Portland Metro (including those in Washington state) in two different ways:

• The projected increase in household counts by elderly/non elderly for three income brackets.
• The project share of household increase broken out by elderly/non elderly HH's, using these same three income brackets.

Some Observations:

1. The elderly share of total household growth is 51%.
2. The elderly share of total household growth INCREASES as incomes DECREASE: 

• At $50,000 and below the elderly account for 65% of HH growth.
• At $25,000 and below the elderly account for 75% of HH growth.
• At $15,000 and below the elderly account for 76% of HH growth.

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Metro Legislative Priorities Work Session: No References to Affordable Housing or Equity.

Metro's election day Tuesday November 6th work session packet is HERE. 

Quick keyword search using "rental housing" and "affordable housing" resulted in no hits.  Also no hits in legislative discussion using keyword search "equity".


Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Picture is Worth A Thousand Words: Metro HH Growth 2010-2035; Elderly Share of Total HH Growth MUCH Higher at Lower Income Levels.

Graph below shows elderly represent 51% of growth for ALL households but elderly HH's represent 76% of growth of households below $15k income.

Click to Enlarge

(As before view this as my prelimin calculation, subject to change).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Housing and Transportation Costs Grew Faster than Incomes 2000-2010, Increasing Cost Burdens.

New report is HERE. ( I get file is damaged message when trying to open file in browser, but if I download file and then open, file opens fine).

• Graphs on PDF pages 6-7 show that Portland Metro housing and transportation costs increased by 35% , while incomes grew only 21% from 2000-2010.  
• Graph on pages 11-12 shows that Portland median incomes grew by $3,466 , but housing+transportation costs grew by $2,066.
• Graph on page 13 shows Portland metro has 10th highest H+T cost burden (out of 25 metro areas) for moderate income families, at 60%.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Thursday Metro Council Meeting: 1st Reading of Housing/ Employment Growth Forecast; Budget Approval for Initial $300K Regional Equity Effort.

At this Thursday's meeting Metro Council will have the first reading of an ordinance related to the household and employment growth projections through 2040.

Metro Council is also scheduled to act on a $300,000 budget request for a regional equity effort, whose final multi year budget could total as much as $1.06 million.

Packet for this meeting is HERE. (Be patient, it's 24 MB, so will take a couple of minutes to load/download).

Details on the equity effort can be found on PDF page 25-44 of the packet; The growth projection portion of the package is from PDF pages 5-24. 

PS. I am guessing proposed $1 changes to zoo fees will get the most media attention. 
 
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Decoded Metro Household Forecast 2010-2035: TAZ, City, and County Level Data Includes HH Income Data by Age.

My prior post HERE provided links to where the new Metro household and employment forecast data can be downloaded. 

I constructed an Excel file that contains a SUBSET of the Metro household ONLY data for 2010 and 2035. Data is available at the TAZ, city, and county [includes Clark county] levels, with breakouts by household size, age, and income brackets. (Note that income data is for households, and not family incomes).

The Excel file can be downloaded HERE and includes three worksheets: (no embed, file is too large).

1. A summary worksheet for households with incomes BELOW $25,000, including the change in households from 2010-2035, and the counts of households in 2010 and 2035.  A PDF of this summary worksheet is HERE.
2. A pivot table, with default set to show households with incomes below $25,000; it includes columns for the elderly, non elderly, and total households. 
3. A data worksheet that includes 70 columns found in the Metro original data, and 11 summary columns that I have added. This worksheet also includes NAMES for worksheet fields, in addition to the complicated coded data field names that you will find in the original Metro worksheet. Household counts are included for three time periods : 2010-2035, 2010, and 2035.

Some observations for households below $25,000 income:

• Total households below $25,000 income are forecast to increase by 45% from 2010-2035.  This is only slightly higher than the overall increase for ALL households, of 44%.
• For the elderly, the total forecast increase in households below $25,000 income is much HIGHER, 111%. Of the total forecast net increase of 93,279 households below $25,000, 69,601 are forecast to be elderly households.
• For the non elderly, the total forecast increase in households below $25,000 is much LOWER, only 17%. (If you look at the summary worksheet, you will notice that the forecast projects decreases in non elderly households below $25,000 income for some jurisdictions, and for multiple TAZ's).

I think you will find this to be one of the most accessible views of Metro household forecasts available.  

I hope others can add value with additional analysis; in particular I hope that someone can add mapping data showing projected growth for low income households.

I ALSO welcome your careful examination of the data; this project required a lot of data manipulation and formulas, and I am always leery that I may have made an inadvertent error (or two). 

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Metro's Technical Advisory Committee Briefing On Employment and Household Forecast Kicks Off Process for Metro Council Adoption by End of November.

At their Wednesday October 17 meeting at 10 AM Metro Council's Technical Advisory Committee will receive a briefing on the LONG awaited regional employment and household forecast [Current version is "Gamma"]. This sets the stage for additional briefings that are scheduled to lead to adoption of the forecast by the Council by the end of November. 

From the MTAC meeting packet HERE :

The Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development requested and Metro staff proposed to
the Metro Council to adopt the distribution by ordinance, so that it can be acknowledged by DLCD as part of Metro’s planning documents to support planning coordination. An ordinance and staff report has been drafted and scheduled for first reading later at the Metro Council meeting on October 18,2012. Staff will present the 2035 forecast distribution to:
- MTAC on October 17th
- MPAC on October 24th
- TPAC on October 26th
- JPACT on November 8th.
The Metro Council is scheduled to conduct a second reading and public hearing, and vote on the ordinance on November 29, 2012

Details NOT in the MTAC Meeting Packet
The MTAC meeting packet does NOT have the forecast details, however, a Metro FTP site HERE DOES have a wealth of information, including a PDF file with profiles at the jurisdiction level, a series of (large) PDF maps, and a copy of a Power Point presentation made to planning directors in September.

The FTP directory also has links to an Excel file with jurisdiction level summaries, and a detailed Excel file with forecast data at the transportation area zone (TAZ).

Time permitting, I will do future posts with more detail and analysis of the Metro forecast. 

My First Take, Seniors, and Senior Incomes, 2010-2035:  (Consider this an "Alpha" first draft, subject to revisions). 
It appears to me that elderly households will make up:

• 28% of all Portland metro households in 2035, up from 18% in 2010.
• More than half of the net growth in total households.
• Nearly 2/3rds. of the net growth in households with incomes below $50,000.
• Nearly 3/4 of the net growth in households with incomes below $25,000.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.