Decoded Metro Household Forecast 2010-2035: TAZ, City, and County Level Data Includes HH Income Data by Age.

My prior post HERE provided links to where the new Metro household and employment forecast data can be downloaded. 

I constructed an Excel file that contains a SUBSET of the Metro household ONLY data for 2010 and 2035. Data is available at the TAZ, city, and county [includes Clark county] levels, with breakouts by household size, age, and income brackets. (Note that income data is for households, and not family incomes).

The Excel file can be downloaded HERE and includes three worksheets: (no embed, file is too large).

1. A summary worksheet for households with incomes BELOW $25,000, including the change in households from 2010-2035, and the counts of households in 2010 and 2035.  A PDF of this summary worksheet is HERE.
2. A pivot table, with default set to show households with incomes below $25,000; it includes columns for the elderly, non elderly, and total households. 
3. A data worksheet that includes 70 columns found in the Metro original data, and 11 summary columns that I have added. This worksheet also includes NAMES for worksheet fields, in addition to the complicated coded data field names that you will find in the original Metro worksheet. Household counts are included for three time periods : 2010-2035, 2010, and 2035.

Some observations for households below $25,000 income:

• Total households below $25,000 income are forecast to increase by 45% from 2010-2035.  This is only slightly higher than the overall increase for ALL households, of 44%.
• For the elderly, the total forecast increase in households below $25,000 income is much HIGHER, 111%. Of the total forecast net increase of 93,279 households below $25,000, 69,601 are forecast to be elderly households.
• For the non elderly, the total forecast increase in households below $25,000 is much LOWER, only 17%. (If you look at the summary worksheet, you will notice that the forecast projects decreases in non elderly households below $25,000 income for some jurisdictions, and for multiple TAZ's).

I think you will find this to be one of the most accessible views of Metro household forecasts available.  

I hope others can add value with additional analysis; in particular I hope that someone can add mapping data showing projected growth for low income households.

I ALSO welcome your careful examination of the data; this project required a lot of data manipulation and formulas, and I am always leery that I may have made an inadvertent error (or two). 

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.