Monday, December 10, 2012

Look Up Portland Metro HH Growth by City 2010-2035, by Elderly Non Elderly, and by Income Grouping.

The Excel file HERE includes a simple lookup that produces two tables AND graphs of 2010-2035 projected household growth for any Portland metro city (including Vancouver).  

To see data for ANY Portland metro city all the user has to do is select the city (or Metro total) in a one cell pull down menu.

The first table and graph shows household growth counts of households for elderly and non elderly households further broken out by income groupings: 
  • All incomes, 
  • Incomes above $50k
  • Incomes below $50k, 
  • Incomes below $25k, 
  • Incomes below $15k 
The second table and graph (to the right of the first table and graph) shows the share of HH growth by elderly and non elderly for those same income groupings. 

As an example, the 2 page PDF HERE shows the two tables and graphs for the Portland metro area. 

Take Away: 
Elderly Represent 76% of the Projected Growth in Households with Incomes Below $15k, Only 33% of Growth in Households with Incomes Above $50k.
The biggest take away from these graphs is that across the Portland metro area elderly households represent a very high share of the projected growth in low income households. The elderly represent 76% of the growth in households below $15k annual income, but only 33% of the growth in households with incomes above $50k. 

1. Metro uses this Census definition of income (which does include social security income, but does not include housing assistance):
Census money income is defined as income received on a regular basis (exclusive of certain money receipts such as capital gains) before payments for personal income taxes, social security, union dues, medicare deductions, etc. Therefore, money income does not reflect the fact that some families receive part of their income in the form of noncash benefits, such as food stamps, health benefits, subsidized housing, and goods produced and consumed on the farm. In addition, money income does not reflect the fact that noncash benefits are also received by some nonfarm residents which may take the form of the use of business transportation and facilities, full or partial payments by business for retirement programs, medical and educational expenses, etc.

2. The Excel file also contains a datasheet I constructed using Metro TAZ level household data and a pivot table that uses that datasheet. This will allow others to do additional analysis of projected 2010-2035 household data by income and by age. 

3. It would be useful to have further breakouts from Metro by tenure for the household forecast, as elderly households may be income poor, but asset rich in terms of home equity and other investments that could be converted to produce additional income.

4. The main worksheet in the workbook is password protected to prevent inadvertent data entry; the cell for the city is not protected to permit selection of the city for analysis.  

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

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