Sunday, November 4, 2012

"Age Friendly Communities" Session on Thursday; My Estimate of Portland Metro Projected Low Income Elderly Household Growth.

Saw an invite and will be attending an "Age Friendly Communities" meeting at the Monarch Hotel off of I-205 on Thursday from 9 to 12 AM; REQUIRED paid registration is HERE.  From a flyer for the event
Representatives of age‐friendly efforts in Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington (OR) and Clark Counties (WA) will present. Metro Councilor Shirley Craddick will also join the conversation and facilitate polling of participants. 

Coincidentally, Andree Tremoulet, Commonworks Consulting had alerted me to very useful materials from Seattle HERE with background on their analysis of elderly affordable housing needs through 2035, and possible solutions to the growing needs for senior affordable housing. 

(Possible Seattle solutions Appendix HERE includes recognition of specific Home Forward and Vancouver Housing Authority low income elderly programs).

My Estimate of Portland Metro Elderly Housing Forecasts by Income From 2010-2035; 76% of Lowest Income HH Growth Will be Elderly Households
Metro has published household forecasts by income range and age; my prior related post, with an Excel file, is HERE

I took that data and prepared a two page PDF with data and graphs HERE that summarizes household totals for ALL of the TAZ [Transportation Area Zones] areas in Portland Metro (including those in Washington state) in two different ways:
  • The projected increase in household counts by elderly/non elderly for three income brackets.
  • The project share of household increase broken out by elderly/non elderly HH's, using these same three income brackets.
Some Observations:
  1. The elderly share of total household growth is 51%.
  2. The elderly share of total household growth INCREASES as incomes DECREASE: 
  • At $50,000 and below the elderly account for 65% of HH growth.
  • At $25,000 and below the elderly account for 75% of HH growth.
  • At $15,000 and below the elderly account for 76% of HH growth.
 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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