Sunday, October 14, 2012

Metro's Technical Advisory Committee Briefing On Employment and Household Forecast Kicks Off Process for Metro Council Adoption by End of November.

At their Wednesday October 17 meeting at 10 AM Metro Council's Technical Advisory Committee will receive a briefing on the LONG awaited regional employment and household forecast [Current version is "Gamma"]. This sets the stage for additional briefings that are scheduled to lead to adoption of the forecast by the Council by the end of November. 

From the MTAC meeting packet HERE :
The Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development requested and Metro staff proposed to
the Metro Council to adopt the distribution by ordinance, so that it can be acknowledged by DLCD as part of Metro’s planning documents to support planning coordination. An ordinance and staff report has been drafted and scheduled for first reading later at the Metro Council meeting on October 18,2012. Staff will present the 2035 forecast distribution to:
- MTAC on October 17th
- MPAC on October 24th
- TPAC on October 26th
- JPACT on November 8th.
The Metro Council is scheduled to conduct a second reading and public hearing, and vote on the ordinance on November 29, 2012
Details NOT in the MTAC Meeting Packet
The MTAC meeting packet does NOT have the forecast details, however, a Metro FTP site HERE DOES have a wealth of information, including a PDF file with profiles at the jurisdiction level, a series of (large) PDF maps, and a copy of a Power Point presentation made to planning directors in September.

The FTP directory also has links to an Excel file with jurisdiction level summaries, and a detailed Excel file with forecast data at the transportation area zone (TAZ).

Time permitting, I will do future posts with more detail and analysis of the Metro forecast. 

My First Take, Seniors, and Senior Incomes, 2010-2035:  (Consider this an "Alpha" first draft, subject to revisions). 
It appears to me that elderly households will make up:
  • 28% of all Portland metro households in 2035, up from 18% in 2010.
  • More than half of the net growth in total households.
  • Nearly 2/3rds. of the net growth in households with incomes below $50,000.
  • Nearly 3/4 of the net growth in households with incomes below $25,000.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

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