CY 2019 Oregon: Duplex Per Unit Permit Values 30%-46% BELOW SF Per Unit Permit Values; 3-4 Units 35%-63% Below.

Census has released preliminary CY 2019 housing permit counts and valuations. Final CY 2019 data will not be available until May. 

I extracted counts and valuations for Oregon, the City of Portland, and for several Oregon metro areas where duplex and 3-4 unit permits had been issued. (Prior related posts are HERE and HERE).

My focus today is a comparison of duplex and 3-4 unit AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT values to single family AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT values. This does NOT represent the final total cost/value/sales price for the different unit types. Excluded are neighborhood and market considerations, square footage and bedroom counts, and the cost of land.  (Note also that SF AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT values include both attached and detached SF units, so IF detached SF units alone were used SF AVERAGE PER UNIT values would be likely higher).

Nevertheless, the cost of construction is a key element in final housing costs/values. If per unit construction costs are lower and land is shared by more units there is a likelihood that sales prices and values will be lower on a per unit basis.

My analysis shows:

• Duplex AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT values were 30%-46% below AVERAGE SINGLE FAMILY PER UNIT PERMIT permit values.
• 3-4 Unit properties AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT values were 35%-63% below SINGLE FAMILY AVERAGE PER UNIT PERMIT.

Below I have pasted a graph illustrating these differences, along with a table with the values for each area and unit type. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

UPDATED: 2011 AHS Data Includes Portland Metro Data.

Update:  I have posted an Excel workbook with Portland metro summary tables on my SkyDrive HERE and also embedded below.


----
Haven't looked at detailed data available, but includes American Housing Survey data for Portland metro area. Census Fact Finder AHS data is HERE.

Sample Data:
Portland median household income 

• For renters, $34k, 
• For home owners, $70K

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

A First: HUD Oregon LIHTC Data Merged with Census Tract 2010 Poverty Data from ACS.

HUD has updated (HERE) their LIHTC project database to include projects placed in service through 2010. For the first time the database includes 2010 geographic codes, including census tracts ID's/FIPS (I have posted the HUD LIHTC data dictionary, updated in July 2012, HERE). 

In advance of a more formal announcement from HUD of the changes (coming soon I expect HERE) I downloaded LIHTC data for 588 LIHTC projects (32,750 units) in Oregon. I imported that data into Excel and then merged the data with American Community Survey 2006-2010 poverty data for Oregon census tracts ( using ACS Table B06012). In the merged table I added columns/fields with formulas that identify high and low poverty rate categories and the names of metro areas and counties.

That combined table, the source LIHTC data from HUD, the poverty data from ACS, a pivot table, and two summary county level poverty rate tables are found in the Excel workbook found HERE.  

(Embed of this Excel workbook follows observations below and opens to summary table showing High Poverty LIHTC location %'s by county).

Some Initial Observations, 227 Oregon LIHTC Projects Placed Into Service in Last Decade (2001-2010)

LIHTC Projects/Units in High Poverty Census Tracts

• In Oregon, 42% of all projects and 48% of LIHTC low income units were located in high poverty census tracts (poverty rates of 20% or more).  
• In Multnomah County 65% of all projects and 72% of LIHTC low income units were located in high poverty census tracts (poverty rates of 20% or more).  
• Multnomah County accounts for 51% of all Oregon LIHTC projects (and 66% of all units) located in Census Tracts with known poverty rates of 20% and higher. 

LIHTC Projects/Units in LOW Poverty Census Tracts

• In Oregon, 12% of all projects and 13% of all LIHTC low income units were located in low poverty census tracts (poverty rate 10% or below).  
• In Multnomah County 8% of all projects and 4% of all LIHTC low income units were located in low poverty census tracts (poverty rate 10% or below).
• Multnomah County accounts for 21% of all Oregon LIHTC projects (and 16% of all units) located in census tracts with poverty rates of 10% and lower.

Notes:
1. All project and unit count percentages are for LIHTC projects where CT's were identified and could be matched with poverty rates; 2 projects placed into service in last decade did not have identifiable CT information
2. At the top of the pivot table I have filtered LIHTC projects to select only those with placed in service dates from 2001-2010.
3. Projects placed in service in 2011 and 2012 are not included in the HUD data; my guess is that there may be 20 or so LIHTC projects in service that are not included in the HUD data.

Combinations with Other ACS and Census Data Now Possible
While I have focused on poverty rates for LIHTC projects, the addition of 2010 Census Tract ID's make it possible to combine LIHTC data with other demographic information available at the census tract level.  Examples include race, ethnicity, diversity, incomes, and tenure. The HUD database also includes additional information on LIHTC projects (source of funding, bedroom size, targeted populations) and additional geographic information including latitude and longitude values that can be used for mapping.

Excel Embed:

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

American Community Survey Data Coming Tuesday Sept 28th; Advance Webinar Next Week.

Census PR HERE also includes information about Thursday Sept 23th webinar on same subject.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Census Coming Up with New Poverty Definition; Might Include Renter Breakout?

Commerce Department PR is HERE.

Planned new measure won't be available until fall 2011, to match release of traditional Census Poverty measures from 2010 Census.

General ideas about how measurement will likely change (final details yet to be decided) found within the document HERE. Looks like there MAY be a breakout by tenure (renter/homeowner, see pg 4).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New 2010 Census Website Tips Up.

New jazzed up site is HERE; link has been added in right pane.

Key dates for 2010 Census are HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

American Community Survey Release Dates.

HERE is a link to a Census Bureau press release showing release dates for data from the annual American Community Survey.

Income and poverty data will be released in late August; housing data is scheduled for a late September release.

Census Pop Growth: Bend Only Oregon MSA in Top 20 for 06-07.

The Census Bureau released population growth data for Metro areas (MSA's) today.
I created an Excel workbook HERE which has several worksheets:

1. All MSA data for two time periods 2000-2007 and 2006-2007
2. Oregon only MSA data for the same two time periods

Highlights:

• Bend MSA grew by about 5,000 from 2006-2007. That 3.3% rate of growth ranked 17th. in the country.
• Bend MSA grew by about 39,000 from 2000-2007. That 33.5% rate of growth ranked 5th. in the country
• Portland MSA grew by about 41,000 from 2006-2007. That 1.9% rate of growth ranked 76th. in the country.
• Portland MSA grew by about 250,000 from 2000-2007. That 12.8% rate of growth ranked 84th. in the country.