Analysis Estimates that US Home Ownership Policies Have NPV Cost of $2.5 Trillion, and Didn't Raise Homeownership Rates.

Thanks to tip from [highly recommended] beSpacific found new paper from Policy Analysis HERE. Author says: 

I estimate that the net present value of U.S. housing policy designed to promote homeownership is $2.5 trillion and document that homeownership policies in the United States have had little effect on homeownership rates.

The paper does not appear to attempt any calculations of the net present value of state tax policies that benefit home ownership.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New Joint Tax Committee Tax Expenditure Estimates; Big 3 Home Ownership Tax Costs to Increase by $49 Billion Over 4 Years.

New estimates are available HERE. [ Tip of hat to Novogradac for first alert that was report was available via Twitter].

Haven't had a chance to compare to other estimates, but  table pasted below shows big three home ownership related federal tax expenditure estimates: 

Click to Enlarge

Observations: 

1. 2012-2011 total change is modest 1.1% because projected property tax deductions are estimated to go down by 37.9% 
2. In 2015 estimate is that big three home ownership expenditures will reach $169.7 BILLION annually. This is an INCREASE of  $49.36 billion/41% from 2011.
3. In 2015 estimate is that mortgage interest deduction alone will reach $113.4 billion, an INCREASE of $35.8 billion/46.1% from 2011.
4. Not in table: If Oregon's share of total federal tax expenditures is 1%, 2015 Oregon federal tax expenditures for these three home ownership tax expenditures would be $1.697 Billion.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New Tool to Search 233,000 Oregon HMDA 2010 Housing Loan Applications.

In time for the OHCS Housing Conference this week I have put together an Excel workbook HERE with HMDA data for all Oregon MSA's for 2010 [Database also includes Clark and Skamania counties in Washington state as they are in Portland MSA]. 

This Excel 2007/2010 file includes data on 233,512 Oregon residential loan applications in 2010. (NOTE: File is large at 100+ MB's; that's because it contains 71 fields for each loan application/record -more than 16.5 MILLON pieces of data. 

To download the file do NOT attempt to open file within the browser but instead right click file link and save to your PC; be patient as it will take a few minutes to download. A PC with lots of memory and a higher processor speed is recommended.

This database starts with 46 fields of HMDA  2010 data that I downloaded for each Oregon MSA from FFIEC. I then added 25 fields of data to the right of the HMDA data that substitute NAMES values for CODE values that appear in several HMDA fields. [The code sheet for Loan Application Register data from FFIEC is HERE].

Example: HMDA data uses a minority race code of "3" for African American applicants, I added a NAME race code field that that shows "African American".
 
I ALSO merged the HMDA Oregon MSA data with several fields from the "Reporter" HMDA database to add NAMES to codes used to show which lender reported the data, where the lender was located etc. 

The end result is a database that shows at census tract, county, MSA, and state levels:

• Demographic data for each loan applicant, including income, race, ethnicity, and sex.
• Demographic data for the census tract and metro area for the property.
• The loan type [FHA etc], purpose [purchase/refinance etc], loan amount/spread.
• The outcome of each loan application and reasons for denial.
• The lender who reported the loan application result.

As a tease of what's in the workbook the legal sized PDF HERE [worksheet 3 in the workbook] shows for Oregon only, owner occupied home purchase originations by loan type [FHA etc] by ethnicity and then by race.  The table shows :

• That 61.6% of owner occupied home purchase loan originations for Hispanics were FHA loans, compared to an FHA share of owner occupied home purchase orginations to non Hispanics of 39.8%.

• That FHA had 61.9% of the owner occupied home purchase African American loan originations, but only 41.3% of owner occupied home purchase white loan originations

To go deeper I have provided a PIVOT table in the workbook allowing users to EASILY slice and dice the HMDA data in countless ways.

The Pivot default in the workbook is set for Oregon ONLY to retrieve by borrower race, the number of Owner occupied, Home Purchase Principle Residence Loan Originations by loan program (FHA, VA, Conventional, RD).


A short summary of some of the additional data the Pivot table can reveal: 

Subtotal, OREGON Only Owner Occupied Loan Originations Summary, Excluding Manufactured Housing:

• 23,334 Owner Occupied Principle Residence Home Purchase Loan Originations
• 64,128 Owner Occupied Principle Residence Home Refinance Originations

Subtotal, Oregon Only Manufactured Home Loan Originations

• 1,599 Manufactured Home Loan Originations; of those only 576 were Owner Occupied Principle Residence Home Purchase Loan Originations.

Subtotal, Washington State ONLY(Clark County+Skamania County) [Skamania county loans have a  Washington State Code and a "59" county code or a "N/A" code in the County Name Field].

• Excluding Manufactured Housing, 30,276 Loan Applications. 
• 450 Manufactured Housing Loan Applications.

While these are STATE level examples, similar data can be retrieved at the census tract, county, and MSA levels. (Database doesn't include a city data field, but CT data could be combined with other data sources to arrive at summaries at the City level).

The complete list of worksheets in the workbook : 

READ ME
1 Pivot
2 Oregon MSA HMDA Data 2010
3 OO Home Purchase Race OR
4 Race Ethnic  by County
5. Race Eth Originations Cnty
6. 2010 Reporter

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Census Brief: Housing 2010: Occupied Rental Units Rate of Increase DOUBLE That of Owner Occupied Rate Increase.

HERE.  

For Oregon this new Census Brief says that from 2000-2010 the number of occupied rental units increased by 20.5%, more than DOUBLE the rate of increase in owner occupied units (10.2%).

Readers will recall [prior post HERE] that the number of Oregon renter households also increased more than the number of home owner households from 2000-2010; Oregon was only 1 of 12 states where this occurred. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Home Mortgage Interest Deduction: 2.3 Million Decline in Number of Filers, Amount Still Tops $470 Billion.

In looking at the new US 2012 US Statistical Abstract I noticed that the number of filers and the amount of the mortgage deduction claimed on federal returns had declined from 2007-2008.

I went back and pulled similar data for select years and prepared the tables HERE that show the number of filers who claimed the deduction, the total amount of the deduction, and the average amount per filer. (No inflation adjustments were made to these figures).

Observations: 

From 2000-2008 

1. The number of filers claiming the mortgage interest deduction increased by 3.77 million (10.8 %) to 38,684,000 filers.
2. The amount of the deduction claimed increased by $170.515 BILLION , (56.8%)  to $470.478 BILLION.
3. The average amount per filer increased by $3,571 (41.6%) to $12,162.

From 2007-2008

1. The number of filers claiming the mortgage interest deduction decreased by 2.093 million (5.1%).
2. The amount of the deduction claimed decreased by $20.954 BILLION (4.3%).
3. The average amount per filer still increased by $110 (.9%).

Notes: 

1. The reduction in filers and the amount from 2007-2008 is likely the result a reduction in the number of homeowners; a drop in income that reduced/eliminated the value of the home mortgage deduction for households who remained as homeowners; AND perhaps a decline in the total mortgage interest paid because of refinancing. 
2. The Fall 2011 IRS SOI publication will have 2009 filing data. I would expect to see a further erosion in the number of filers claiming the home mortgage deduction and the total amount of that deduction. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Portland Tribune Has City of Portland African American Drop in Home Ownership Rate Story.

Story from Steve Law is HERE in printer ready format.

Story references Census data I recently posted [post is HERE] and a quote from interview with me. Quotes from Economic Fairness Oregon, Realty Trust broker, Portland Housing Center, and African American home owners helped by PHC are also included in the story.

NOTE: African American Alliance for Home Ownership will have their annual home ownership fair in Portland on October 29th at Emanuel Hospital. Details HERE. 

Fair includes exhibits/presence of multiple lenders, agencies, and non profits. Noticed that this years Fair will include education session on first time home buyers facilitated by Jon Gail, formerly at Portland Housing Bureau, and now operator of new web based education/referral site for first time home buyers, First Home Advisor. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

25 Metro Cities, 2010 Census: Minority Home Ownership Rates and Gaps, With Rankings.

My prior post HERE presented Census 2010 home ownership rates and gaps, with rankings, for the 8 largest cities in Oregon within Metro's jurisdiction.

This is an expanded version of the same analysis for all 25 Oregon cities in Metro's jurisdiction.  The PDF file HERE has four tables:

1. Owner Occupant Household Counts
2. Home Ownership Rates
3. Minority Home Ownership Gaps
4. Best to Worst Home Ownership Rankings, Including 12 Minority Home Ownership Rate and Gap Rankings 

Observations:

1. Lake Oswego, which had ranked the highest among 8 largest city on 8 of 12 minority home ownership metrics, does not rank highest on any dimension when the other 17 cities are added. 
2. Wood Village, which has the highest diversity index rating of these 25 cites, has no minority home ownership rate ranking higher than 10th. This suggests that diversity index scores may not be correlated with minority home ownership rates OR, if correlated at all, there may be a negative correlation, meaning that a higher diversity index value could have some degree of association with a lower minority home ownership rate. [See my March 2011 post with diversity index ratings and rankings for these 25 cities HERE].
3. Portland's highest ranking is 12th, on its African American home ownership gap.
4. Beaverton, Durham, Fairview, Gresham, Tualatin, and Wilsonville all have a number of 20+ rankings, in the bottom 5th of these cities.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Who Knew? In 2010, Among 8 Largest Cities in Portland Metro in Oregon, Lake Oswego Had Highest Minority Home Ownership Rankings.

I have prepared a Census 2010 sourced table that shows  home ownership rate data, including minority home ownership rate data and gaps, for the 8 Oregon cities in the jurisdiction of Metro with 10,000 or more total households. 

The two page table also includes rankings from best to worst (1 to 8) on 12 different minority home ownership metrics and best to worst rankings on 2 other metrics for overall homeownership rate and the white, non Hispanic home ownership rate.


Finally in the far left hand column on the first page the total counts of home owners and home ownership rates for all 25 cities in Metro's jurisdiction are shown.

The table is HERE and it has some surprises, especially with rankings found on page 2:

1. On 12 different metrics of minority home ownership, Lake Oswego has the highest/best ranking on 8 of those metrics.
2. Using those same 12 minority home ownership metrics, Tualatin was ranked the lowest/worst on 5 of these metrics.
3. Portland does not rank the highest or the lowest in any of the 12 minority home ownership metrics. It did have the 2nd lowest/best all minority home ownership rate gap.
4. Beaverton is ranked the lowest on 3 of the 12 minority home ownership metrics. And, among these 8 Portland metro cities, it also had the lowest overall home ownership rate, and the lowest white non Hispanic home ownership rate. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

City of Portland Tenure Changes, 1990-2010; Some Minority Progress BUT African American Home Owner Declines Significant.

I have prepared a comprehensive new table HERE that provide a comparison of City of Portland tenure information for 1990, 2000, and newly released 2010 data.

The table includes breakouts for 1990, 2000, and 2010 of:

• Owner Occupied Households.
• All Households
• Rental Households
• Home Ownership Rates
• Home Ownership Gaps
• Share of Total Households

These household breakouts are further detailed for 

• White non Hispanics
• African Americans
• Asian + Pacific Islanders
• Alaska Natives and American Indians
• Hispanics
• All Minorities

In addition to numerical counts for 1990,2000, and 2010, in columns to the right the table shows numerical and % changes for 1990-2000, for 2000-2010, and for 1990-2010. 

Yellow highlighted cells in these columns show % declines or, for minority home ownership gaps, % increases.

For now I have labelled the report as DRAFT in hopes other eyes will confirm the accuracy of the data presented and/or point out any errors. 

My Initial Observations: (I encourage you to add your comments/observations to the bottom of this post). 

Home ownership Rates and Gaps

1. In last decade home ownership rates declined for all groups except Asian+ Pac Islanders. (Rates actually declined for Pac Islander share of that grouping). 
2. Over 20 year period only ONE group saw a decline in HO Rates--African Americans whose rate declined from 37.6% in 1990 to 32.4% in 2010, a 20 year decline of 14%. 
3. In last decade there was a loss of 482 African American home owner households vs. an increase of 583 in the preceding decade. 
4. Because there was a statewide net increase of 813 African American home owner HH's in the last decade, this means that during that decade there was an increase of 1,295 African American home owner HH's OUTSIDE of the City of Portland.
5. The 2010 HO rate for Asian+ Pac Islanders is higher than the white non Hispanic HO Rate (58.2% vs. 57%).
6. Over last decade the gap between African American and white non Hispanic HO rates increased by 39% while the gap for Asian+Pac Islanders declined by 130%, and by 29% for Hispanic. ["Gap" is the % by which minority group HO rate has to increase to reach white, non Hispanic HO rate].
7. The 76% gap between between African American and white non Hispanic HO rates in 2010 was 63% higher than the 47% gap in 1990.
8. In last decade, minority home owner households grew at a rate 7 times the growth rate for white, non Hispanic home owner growth, 28% vs. 4%.

Renter and All Household Demographics

1. Minority renter HH's grew by 28% during the last decade vs 13% growth for white non Hispanic renter HH's. 
2. Minority households made up 18% of all households in 2010 vs 13% in 1990.
3. Over 20 years from 1990-2010 there was a net increase of 2,211 African American households. Only 101 [4.6%] of those were home owner households, with the remainder [2,110/95.4%] being renter households.
4. In last decade Hispanic HH's accounted for 56% of all minority HH growth ( 5,550 /9,949) and 22% of all HH growth (5,550/24,809).
   

 

Data sources:   

• 2010 Census.
• 1990 -2000 data is from PDF page 18 of a 2004 Report to Portland City Council, Strategies to Increase Minority Home Ownership Rates 

(While at HUD, I contributed as a member on an advisory committee to this report).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

N/ NE Portland Neighborhoods 2000-2010: African American Home Owner and Rental Households Both Declined by More Than 30%; Some HO Rate Surprises.

Readers may recall a late April Oregonian story about demographic changes in North and NE Portland neighborhoods; story is HERE and a related map and graph is HERE.

I did a follow on post HERE that highlighted changes in diversity index scores in those neighborhoods and pointed out that these neighborhoods had high diversity index scores compared to the rest of the state and that Multnomah County had some of the highest diversity index scores in the state.

With the publication of new 2010 Census tenure data I thought it would be a good opportunity to revisit those neighborhoods to see the 2000-2010 changes in household tenure, and particularly changes in African American households and tenure.

The 5 page legal sized PDF I created HERE provides that information. For both 2000 and 2010 it includes:

1. Counts of total households, owner HH's, and rental HH's for all households, for white non Hispanic HH's, and for African American households.  
2. The percentage change for each group, 
3. The numerical change, and 
4. The share of households for each group in both 2000 and 2010.

Initial Observations: The Number and Share of Total Households for African American Households Is Down Significantly for Both Rental HH's and Home Owner HH's; Some Home Ownership Rate Surprises.

1. In these neighborhoods, total households grew very modestly, by 2,444 households . As was the case statewide, renter household growth outpaced home owner household growth: 1,373 vs 1,071.
2. White non Hispanic household growth was 4,514 households (16%); 1,936 (11%) for home owner HH's and (34%) 2,578 for renter HH's. This means that 57% of the growth in white non Hispanic household growth in these neighborhoods were renter households.
3. African American households decreased by 2,399 (-32%); by 1,137 (-31%) for home owner HH's and 1,262 (-32%) for renter HH's. 
4. The net loss of 1,137 African American home owner HH's in these neighborhoods, coupled with a statewide net increase of 813 African American homeowners, indicates that a statewide net increase of 1,950 African American home owner HH's occurred outside these neighborhoods.
5. Because the rate of decline of African American renter households was greater than the rate of decline of African American home owner households, the rate of African American home ownership actually INCREASED [by.9%] in these neighborhoods.  
6. In CT 3601 (which the Oregonian had coded as "1" in their graphic) the graphic showed that this census tract had the highest population loss of 915 African Americans. The household data confirm this with a loss of 305 households (39%), the highest numerical HH loss among all CT's in these neighborhoods. However, in this census tract the African American home ownership rate  increased from 56.6% to 64%, leaving a 2010 gap of only 3% with the white, non Hispanic HO rate (see explanation of "gap" below). 
7. Coupled with a 4.3% decline in the rate of white non Hispanic home ownership in these neighborhoods, the slight rise in the African American HO rate meant that the AA gap with the white non Hispanic home ownership rate decreased. The 2010 African American HO rate gap of 22.4% is also substantially LESS in these neighborhoods than statewide [98%], Multnomah County [85%], and the City of Portland [76%]. ["Gap" is the percentage by which a minority group home ownership rate has to increase to reach the white non Hispanic HO rate. It is calculated by dividing the white non Hispanic HO rate by the minority group rate and subtracting 1].
8. The 48.8% rate of African American home ownership in 2010 in these neighborhoods was substantially higher than the AA home ownership rate in Oregon [32.9%], Multnomah County [31.4%], and the City of Portland [32.4%]. 
9. These neighborhoods were home to 31% of all Oregon African American home owner HH's (2,504 of 8,106) and 16% of Oregon African American renter HH's (2,631 of 16,532).  [You can refer to the Excel table in my recent post HERE to compare these neighborhood counts/rates etc to other geographies].
10. Percentage changes for all households, white non Hispanic, and African American households by tenure type can be found on page 3 of the PDF file.
11. Using population data the Oregonian story concluded that all of the neighborhoods examined were now majority white in 2010, and that is also confirmed at the household level. (Gray shading in the white non Hispanic total household columns for 2010 and 2000 indicate areas where white Hispanic households are greater than 50% of total households).
12. The share of all households that were white, non Hispanic grew from 70% to 77% from 2000 to 2010; for home owners the share that were white non Hispanic households grew from 76% to 81% and for renters the white non Hispanic household share grew from 63% to 72%. 
13. Conversely the share of all households in these neighborhoods who were African America declined from 19% to 12%; for home owner households the AA share declined from 16% to 10%, and for renter households the AA share decline was from 23% to 14%. 

Notes:

1. I dropped two 2010 Census Tracts [2203,2303] used in the Oregonian story as the data that I used did not show data for those tract numbers in 2000. While I would have liked to have included those tracts, I do not believe that exclusion of these tracts would have a significant impact on the rates of change that my data shows.
2. If you want to confirm my data you can pull data from American Fact finder 2 for Census 2010 and AFF1 for Census 2000. I used 3 separate tables for tenure by race, ethnicity, and for white non Hispanics and then lots of formulas and look ups to do calculations of change.[For starters you can try link HERE; it should return Census 2000 household tenure by race, Hispanic, and white non Hispanic HH data for all Multnomah county census tracts].
3. Note that all of this data is at the HOUSEHOLD level and NOT the population level.
4. In the tables, the Oregonian Graphic Census Tract Code field indicates a number used in the prior Oregonian graphic to represent a specific census tract number. Clicking on the hyper linked header to this column will take you to the graphic so you can relate a census tract in the table to the simplified code number used in the graphic.  
5. As with other recent Census 2010 postings I have labelled this as a DRAFT, as this was highly complex to put together [about 1,800 separate pieces of data]. I will continue to double check data and formulas, but I am hopeful that other sets of eyes can also confirm with Census data sources and cross check for any errors in the calculations. 
6. I don't view my initial analysis as anything more than a start and as a concrete way to alert others that the 2010 data is now available for their geography/demographic of interest. I encourage others to confirm/test the data and my analysis of these neighborhoods, and to look carefully and offer their own analysis for their geography/ demography of interest. 
7. Census 2010 household data can also be compared to ACS 2005-2009 data. For example, ACS 2005-2009 estimated that there were 10,414 African rental households in Multnomah County while the 2010 Census indicates 10,855 AA rental HH's.

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.
 

Draft Comparison: 2010 vs 2000 Oregon Homeownership Rates/Gaps--Some Progress But Not for African Americans/ Native Hawiian/ Pac Islanders.

After an alert reader provided a link to a Salem Statesman Journal story HERE about an increase in the Oregon Hispanic home ownership rate, I decided to do a quick comparison between 2010 and 2000 Census Oregon home ownership rates.

I am hopeful that someone else will check data from Census to confirm my calculations, but for now my DRAFT comparison is HERE in a two page PDF table. 

The table shows that in Oregon :

1. Overall home ownership rates decreased by 3.2%. 
2. White non Hispanic HO rates decreased by 2.6%
3. African American HO rates decreased significantly by 12.1% [In a decade my calculations are that Oregon added only a net increase of 813 African American homeowners].
4. Native Hawaiian and Pac Islander HO rates also decreased by 4.5%
5. American Indian and Alaska Native HO rates decreased by 1.6%
6. Asian HO rates increased significantly by 11.8%
7. Hispanic HO rates also increased significantly by 8.9%.
8. Except for Asians, minority HO gaps in 2010 remain high, and those gaps actually increased for both African Americans and for Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders. 
9. Finally, as I have noted previously Oregon add 10,000 more rental households than owner occupied households in the last decade. (97,000 vs 87,000). Moreover, the rate of growth of rental households was double the rate of growth of home owner households (20% vs. 10%).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Census 2010 Oregon: Compare Home Ownership Rates, Including Minority HO Rates and Gaps, for 1,200+ Geographies Down to Census Tract Level.

Using new Census 2010 data for Oregon that just became available today I have created a new Excel workbook HERE. The one worksheet in the file allows you to EASILY compare side by side home ownership and rental household related data for up to three areas that you will choose from a pull down list of more than 1,200 available Oregon geographies. 

Geographies include counties, cities/places, and census tracts ; you will be able to compare these areas on 33 separate household [NOT population] tenure dimensions including:

1. Counts of total households by race and ethnicity,
2. Counts of home owners by race and ethnicity,
3. Counts of renters by race and ethnicity,
4. Home ownership rates by race and ethnicity, and
5. Gaps in minority home ownership rates compared to  White, non Hispanic home ownership rates. (I define "Gaps" as the % increase in minority home ownership rate necessary to reach the White, non Hispanic home ownership rate. If a minority HO rate is 20% and the White non Hispanic HO rate is 40% there is a 100% minority HO rate gap--I.E. The minority HO rate would have to double to reach the White non Hispanic HO rate).

As a default the Excel file opens to a side by side comparison of data for : 

• The State of Oregon
• Multnomah County
• City of Portland

To change those areas simply choose from pull down lists that appear in the columns to the right of the three "Select Geo Area" columns. The workbook then automatically looks up the data for the geo areas you have selected. 

Once you choose your 3 geographies, you can print the results in a two page document: a PDF sample using the three default selections [State of Oregon, Multnomah County, and City of Portland] is HERE.

Downloading Tip-This workbook was created in Excel 2007 format. Some users report they cannot direct view Excel files in this format from within their browser and that Excel files they save end up with a compressed .zip file extension. My suggestion is to RIGHT CLICK and save the file to your PC. Then navigate to the file you downloaded and look at its file extension. IF it appears as .ZIP extension, change the .ZIP extension to an Excel 2007 extension (.xlsx), and THEN open the file with Excel 2007/2010. 

Notes: 

1. Worksheet has been password protected to prevent inadvertent data entry--you will ONLY be able to select the three geo areas from the pull down lists; all other values are then calculated automatically. 
2. A #DIV/0! error in the results means one of values in formula was "0", preventing a valid result from the formula.  Most often for this worksheet this could occur if there are no minority households, renter households, or minority home owners in the chosen geography. 
3. This was a complex worksheet to put together, if you discover any unusual or apparently inconsistent or incorrect data, please DO send me an email or add a comment below.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon Drops 3 Ranks in Home Ownership Rates to 46th; Was One of Only 12 States to Add More Rental HH's than Homeowner HH's.

I have prepared a new 4 page legal sized PDF table file HERE that includes state level rental and home ownership household counts and changes, as well as home ownership rate changes, for 2000-2010.

Some observations: (50 States + District of Columbia and Puerto Rico).

1. Oregon was only 1 of 12 states where the increase in the number of rental households exceeded the increase in the number of home owner households. 
2. In Oregon rental households grew at a rate DOUBLE the rate of increase in home owner households (20.5% vs. 10.2%). [Nationally, renter households also grew at a higher rate than home owner households (14.2% vs 8.8%)]
   
3.  For these 52 areas, the overall home ownership rate decline was 1.6%; Oregon's home ownership rate decline was 3.2%, twice as much as the national decline. Only 8 states had a HIGHER rate of home ownership rate decline than Oregon from 2000-2010 [South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, North Carolina, Mississippi, Arkansas, Idaho, and Nevada].
4. Oregon's home ownership rate ranking dropped from 43rd to 46th, meaning that in 2010 only 5 states +DC had LOWER home ownership rates [Rhode Island, Nevada, Hawaii, California, New York, and the District of Columbia].

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Updated: 2000-2010 Oregon Home Ownership Rates Drop; Growth in Number of Renter HH's Exceeded Growth in Number of Homeowner HH's.

Apologies....I inadvertently left Corvallis off the list of HUD Entitlement Communities at bottom of table. That data has now been added, link to table remains the same.
--------
A story last week in the Columbian HERE reporting a drop in the Clark County home ownership rate was a hint of things to come.

Data out today from Census Bureau for Oregon shows that

• Oregon's home ownership rate declined from 64.3% in 2000 to 62.2% in 2010, a 3.2% decline.
• Bend saw an 8% decrease in home ownership rates and Medford a 9.4% decrease in home ownership rates from 2000-2010. (Deschutes county also had a 9% decrease).
• The home ownership rate in Multnomah County declined from 56.9% to 54.6%, a 4% decline.
• The City of Portland home ownership rate declined from 55.8% to 53.7%, a 3.7% decline.
• In 26 of 36 Oregon counties the increase in the number of renter HH's was HIGHER than the numerical increase in home owner HH's; this was also true at the statewide level.
• Annually the statewide increase in home owners HH's averaged out to about 8,700 a year, while the annual increase in the number of rental households was about 9,700.
• At the HUD entitlement community level only 2 of the 9 communities had a greater numerical increase in homeowner HH's vs renter HH's (Beaverton and Hillsboro) and as a result those were the only two Oregon HUD entitlements that saw an increase in home ownership rates. (4% and 4.1%).
• While Bend had the largest HUD entitlement community decline in home ownership rates its 2010 home ownership rate (57.9%) was still the highest of any HUD entitlement community in Oregon. On the other hand Beaverton had a 4% increase in home ownership rates, but still had the lowest 2010 home ownership rate (49.7%) among Oregon HUD entitlement communities. 

I assembled this 2000 and 2010 housing tenure data for all Oregon counties and HUD entitlement communities in the 4 page legal formatted PDF table HERE. I encourage you to get to the Census website and confirm my data; if you discover any discrepancies please do let me know.

Until more detailed data by race and ethnicity is available late summer we will not know if the decline in home ownership rates was uniform, or more likely, that the decline was greater for minority groups than whites.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregonian Story from 50 Years Ago this Month Has Survey of Fair Housing Law Knowledge and Steering of Black Home Buyers.

Ran across a May 7, 1961 Oregonian article HERE in doing research in on line Multnomah County Library databases. Story reports results from a League of Women Voters survey on Fair Housing conducted after 1959 passage or Oregon Fair Housing Law. ( I ran across reference to actual 1959 bills, SB 249 and SB 250, if anyone can find links to those bill that would be useful historical reference; readers will recall that GOP State Senators referenced that legislation in their letters to AG and BOLI).

Article is sobering reminder of what conditions were and provides some context for recent Fair Housing audits (even though audits focused primarily on renters).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Submit Your Idea for $300 House.

HERE. Deadline May 26th, announcement of winner less than week later.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Real Long Term Return on Home Ownership, Less than 0%?

Post HERE from Business Insider will likely make some people mad.  

Based on article HERE from Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bulletin, originally published in Harvard Business Journal. Article says:

Assuming an annual depreciation rate of 2.5 percent, a property tax rate of 1.5 percent, a mortgage interest rate of 7 percent, and a marginal income tax rate of 25 percent for a typical taxpayer, the adjusted real rate of return on housing actually falls below zero (1.3-2.5-1.5+0.25(7+1.5))=-0.575 percent! Remember that 1.3 percent is the real rate of return of the national house-price index between 1975 and 2009.13 Meantime, under the 25 percent marginal income tax rate for a typical taxpayer, the rate of return on stocks during the same period falls only to 4.5*(1-0.25)=3.375 percent.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon AND Portland Metro Had Lowest RENTAL Vacancy Rates in US in 1st Quarter, 2011; HO Vacancy Ranks Worse.

Daily Journal of Commerce story is HERE.  

I expanded a bit to create table below that shows vacancy rates and rankings for 1st Qtr 2011-2006 for both rentals and home ownership units.  (Rankings are best to worst among 51 states [includes DC] and 75 largest metro areas].

Table shows both Oregon and Portland Metro had the LOWEST rental vacancy rates in the country in 1st Qtr 2011. (While Oregon's rental vacancy rate is down from same quarter last year, the Portland metro rental vacancy rate actually bumped up slightly from same quarter last year).

For home ownership Oregon's vacancy rate ranked 43rd best [8th worst], and Portland's ranked 36th best in the first quarter of 2011. Important note: Despite the lower relative rankings, vacancy rates for both Oregon and Portland metro home ownership units are LESS than rental vacancy rates for the 1st Qtr 2011.

Detailed vacancy rate data for states and top 75 MSA's in country is available from Census HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

2011-2013 Excel Workbook: $31.3 Billion In State of Oregon Tax Expenditures; Rental Housing Gets 37 Cents Out of Every $100.

The State of Oregon Tax Expenditure report for the coming biennium includes an Excel formatted table that shows projected costs, and more, for each of the 378 State of Oregon tax expenditures. 

In order to create a format that would allow use of filters and a pivot table I made some edits, and also added a column to indicate IF the tax expenditure was related to housing, and if so, whether it was a home ownership or rental housing related item.

The resulting Excel workbook, with 5 worksheets is HERE; take a look at the READ ME tab to see contents and some explanatory notes. (NOTE: This workbook was created in Excel 2007 format.Some users report when they save Excel 2007 files they end up with a compressed .zip file extension. My suggestion is to RIGHT CLICK and save the file to your PC. Then navigate to the file you downloaded and look at its file extension. IF it appears as .ZIP extension, change the .ZIP extension to Excel 2007 extension (.xlsx), and THEN open the file with Excel 2007/2010

Double Click to Enlarge

Several observations:

1. At a time of severe budget pressure for appropriated/General Fund programs, total Oregon tax expenditures are expected to INCREASE by $3.49 BILLION (12.3%) in the coming biennium, reaching a total of $31,339,500,000.
2. Income tax related tax expenditures will account for $12.07 Billion (38.5%) of all expenditures; property tax expenditures will account for $19.11 billion (61%).
3. The 17.8% rate of increase in income tax expenditures is 95% HIGHER than the 9.1% rate of increase for property tax expenditures in the coming biennium. 
4. Remaining tax expenditures of $155 million (less than 1/2 of 1% of total tax expenditures) come from miscellaneous sources including oil, tobacco, and medical provider sources [medical provider tax provides $100 million of this subtotal]. 
5. My earlier post HERE noted that the total for Oregon housing related tax expenditures is projected to be $2.362 Billion; that amounts to 7.5% of all projected 2011-2013 state tax expenditures.
6. As bar graph in this post indicates, for every $100 in State of Oregon tax expenditures, rental housing will receive 37 cents, and home ownership $7.17. This means the rate of Home ownership to rental housing tax expenditure ratio is more than 19 to 1.
7. Home ownership tax expenditures are project to increase at a higher rate (18.9%) than non housing tax expenditures (11.9%), while rental tax expenditures are projected to grow by a much smaller 4.2% 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Corrected Super Sunday Post: $2.3 Billion+ in State of Oregon Housing Tax Expenditures, Home Ownership AND Rental , 2011-2013.

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(Corrected chart and attachment to remove double counted Mobile Park Closure tax expenditure included in rental total) 
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I have prepared the attached table and pie graph HERE (legal size to fit all the data) that shows a breakout of ALL State of Oregon housing related tax expenditures, including both home ownership and rental housing. Table includes a $$ and % comparison of the cost during the current 2009-11 biennium and the upcoming 2011-13 biennium. 

Some observations: 

1. Total 11-13 housing tax expenditures of $2.362 Billion are expected to increase by $362 million (18%)  in the coming biennium.
2. In earlier posts I noted that total Oregon General Fund support for OHCS, for both home ownership and rental housing, was $9.5 million [with a M] in the coming biennium), a decrease of $788,000+ (7.6%).
3. Home ownership tax expenditures will exceed $2.2 Billion in the coming biennium, an INCREASE of $357 million (19%) from the last biennium. 
4. Home ownership will account for 95% of the total of  State of Oregon housing related tax expenditures in 2011-2013.
5. Rental tax expenditures account for 5% of total housing related tax expenditures, and are projected to reach $114.5 million, an INCREASE of $4.6 million (4%)  in the coming biennium. 
6. Housing related tax expenditures that were less than $100k or that had no values are not included in the table.

Early in the week I will ALSO be posting an Excel workbook with ALL 378 State of Oregon tax expenditures, showing the estimated costs for the current and upcoming biennium included.  (Post will include filters and a pivot table, so you can make comparisons in a variety of ways).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.