Portland Metro Condo Price Drops Triple Overall Price Decline.

Housing Wire has story HERE. Says all homes median sale prices down 9.4% from year ago while median resale condo prices down 28.2%.

(OUCH! Visualize tear here from long time condo owner).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon Has 17th Worst State Rank for Borrowers Underwater+Near Underwater Borrower Percentage, with 148,000+ Underwater/Near Underwater Homeowners.

Last weeks WSJ had a story related to the new FHA underwater refinancing program HERE. Included in that story was a link to a table HERE, showing state "underwater" borrowers as of June 30, 2010.

I have reconstructed that data and added ranks and pasted it below showing Oregon's "underwater" borrowers compared to the national average and to Idaho and Washington.

Some observations:

1. Oregon had 109,135 "underwater" borrowers AND another 38,046 "near underwater" borrowers.
2. Those 148,081 "underwater+near underwater" borrowers , represented 21.3% of all loans in the state.
3. Oregon 21.3% "underwater+near underwater" percentage of loans was still significantly better (24%) than the US average of 27.9%.
4. Oregon's 21.3% was also better than Idaho's 28.9%, but worse than Washington's 20.6%
5. Oregon had the 17th worst "underwater+near underwater" percentage among 44 states where data was available.
6. Idaho had the 7th worst underwater+near underwater percentage in the country and Washington the 20th.
7. Oregon homeowners retained $56+ billion in equity in their homes and nationally homeowners retained $3.8 TRILLION.

State	National	Idaho	Oregon	Washington
Mortgages	47,802,783	242,694	695,439	1,407,297
Negative Equity Mortgages	10,971,224	57,615	109,135	214,468
Near** Negative Equity Mortgages	2,356,100	12,538	38,946	76,383
Negative Equity Share PLUS Near Negative Equity Mortgages	13,327,324	70,153	148,081	290,851
Negative Equity Share	23.00%	23.70%	15.70%	15.20%
Near** Negative Equity Share	4.90%	5.20%	5.60%	5.40%
Negative Equity Share PLUS Near Negative Equity Share	27.90%	28.90%	21.30%	20.60%
Total Property Value	$12,707,027,160,944	$48,968,685,624	$180,105,676,362	$441,737,928,305
Mortgage Debt Outstanding	$8,875,764,627,185	$35,649,637,071	$123,683,325,688	$293,421,788,044
Net Homeowner Equity	$3,831,262,533,759	$13,319,048,553	$56,422,350,674	$148,316,140,261
Loan-to-Value Ratio	70%	73%	69%	66%
Rank Neg Equity Share %, Worst to Best		7	17	21
Rank Neg Equity Share %+ Near Neg Equity Share, Worst to Best		7	17	20

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Zillow Posts State, Metro, County and City SF Market Reports, Including Oregon.

Oregon market information is HERE. Can filter by # of homes sold, listing price, etc.

Interactive graphs mouse over shows you not only change, but values for earlier periods. 

Detailed Oregon Excel data

Download pull down menu allows you to download in Excel the data for the map shown; Excel file HERE has all of Oregon statewide and Metro data through June 30th. LOT of individual worksheets showing data by BR size, price range, and housing type (detached, condo).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Updated: Portland 3rd Highest Market for Risk of Future Home Price Reduction.

 Update: Link to actual Goldman Sachs report is HERE.
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Portland Housing Blog has post HERE with details on 1 and 2 year metro area home price projections from a Goldman Sachs analysis.

• Table in post HERE shows Portland with a one year decline of 4% and two year decline of 12%. 
• For Seattle pain is predicted to be even worse, a one year decline of 8% and a two year decline of 22%. 
• This compares to a predicted average one year decline of 2.6% and a two year decline of 3.5% for the 20 metro areas found in the Case-Shiller index.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Home Price Indices are Out: Portland Still Down.

WSJ story HERE has table by metro area for Case Shiller index. Portland shows 11.8% annual decline, and .5% monthly decline. In a sign that the market has improved in some large market areas, both Los Angeles and Miami show monthly increases.

Oregonian Front Porch Blog story with Portland focus is HERE.

ALSO, new FHFA quarterly index data and report is HERE: (FHFA index includes both purchase and refi loans)

1. Portland annual decline was 8.63% on the FHFA index, while Oregon's was 8.81%.
2. Portland [pg. 37] had the 245th most severe annual decline (out of 297 metro areas)
3. Oregon's decline [pg 15] was the 47th most severe annual decline among states.(Map showing decline by state is on page 16).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Simplfied Portland RMLS Monthly and YTD Single Family Dollar Sales and Other Comparisons.

As I indicated in prior post, I am going to be simplifying my summary of changes in single family dollar sales volume activity from the Portland RMLS. Instead of trying to do multiple geographic subdivisions, I will focus only on the Portland area, as defined by RMLS (excludes Clark County).

You will find the March report in the new format HERE. (You can always find the most recent version of the report posted and linked in the right pane as "Portland Metro SF Sales Data"). The new format includes:

• Graphs showing YTD and monthly changes in SF Dollar Sales Volume AND
• A one page table for each month that includes A. Changes in Dollar Sales Volume B. Changes in Closed Sales and C. Changes in Average Sales Prices

For each month, comparisons are made with the same period for the last two years.

Updating this table should be a lot simpler, requiring only the changing of the month, and the copy and pasting of far fewer values, and thus far fewer possible errors.

BIG CORRECTION: RMLS Portland Data for March: YTD Dollar Volume Down 42% (NOT 67%) Vs. Last Year.

Ever do something so dumb, you can't believe you did it?

Well, I did it with this post and I'm embarrased as hell...

Combining data from all the different sub areas is a chore, especially when cutting, pasting, etc. I made some errors in that process and it completely threw off the results.

A CORRECTED version of link previously below is HERE; it shows a 42% decline in dollar sales volume instead of the 67% decline I previously reported.

Next month, I'm going to keep it simple and just do a metro wide calculation instead of trying to do all calculations for each subdivision.

I have corrected text below and made sure that adding three months together totals the YTD for both 2008 and 2009.

IF you discover any additional errors, PLEASE DO let me know (and let me have it too!).

My apologies to all, uggghhh!
-------------

In a post last month HERE I reported that my analysis showed that through February the dollar volume of Portland area RMLS closed sales was down 44% compared to last year. (This earlier post includes details about methods, which I encourage you to read. Important note is that my analysis does not include Clark County data).

I just did a similar analysis that compares YTD through March. It shows the dollar volume of closed single family sales declined by 42% compared to same period for last year. That [corrected] new analysis can be found HERE.

Instead of looking at sales volume and median prices independently, a dollar sales comparison provides an unified way of showing the combined impact of declining sales volume and declining prices. This measure may be particularly important in understanding the impact on incomes that are directly related to dollar sales volumes, whether in the private or government sector.

PMI Group Says Portland Has 2/3rds Chance of Having Lower Price Index Two Years Out; That's Double the Probability for Seattle.

PMI Group has issued a new metro market assessment HERE.

In looking at the table on pages 6 and 7 you will see that Portland metro area has a "U.S. Market Risk index" of 66.4, vs a risk index of 30.3 for Seattle for the 4th Quarter 2008. [ .." a Risk Index score of 100 means there is a 100 percent chance that the Loan Performance All Transactions House Price Index for that MSA will be lower two years from the date of the data"].

Translation: According to PMI Group, there is a two thirds chance that the Portland home price index will be lower in two years [4th quarter 2010], while the chance for Seattle having a lower home price index at that time is less than 1/3rd.

In both cases the risk index for 4th Quarter 2008 has increased significantly compared to 3rd quarter of 2008. Portland's risk index increased by 199% (66.4 vs 22.2) while the risk index for Seattle increased by 189% ( 30.3 vs. 10.5).

YTD 2009 vs. 2008 RMLS Portland Data Analysis: Total Closed Sales Volume is Down $372 Million (44%).

HERE is a analysis I just completed of Year to Date RMLS closed sales through February vs. same months for 2008. (Page 2 includes monthly sales data for both Jan and Feb. 2009 and 2008).

My analysis has several different geographic combinations:

1. The "All PDX" category combines a "All City of Portland" subcategory I constructed (all City of Portland RMLS sub areas) and a "PDX, Not city of Portland" subcategory I constructed.
2. A "Non PDX" category combines RMLS Marion/Polk and North Coastal categories.
3. Finally, the "ALL" category combines the "All PDX", and "Non PDX" categories.

( I did not include Clark County in Washington in all of these categories).

"All PDX" Area: YTD Dollar Sales Volume Down 44%, $372 Million:

• This new calculation helps illustrate the combined impact of lower closed sales and lower average sales prices. To compute, I took the average sales price for each month and multiplied the number of closed sales to arrive at closed sale dollars and added the totals for the two months together.
  
• Using this method I conclude that in "All PDX" category I created, total sales DOLLARS are down by $372 Million in the first two months of the year compared to same two months in 2008. [$846 Million vs $473 Million].
• That is a decline of 44% in total sales DOLLARS.
• The 47% rate of decline in the "All , City of Portland" subcategory, the decline in sales dollars is close to the overall decline in the Portland area.
• Rates of declines in dollar sales volume for two RMLS areas outside of Portland (Marion/Polk ,33%) and North Coastal areas, 27%) were significantly less than 44% decline in the Portland area.
  

NOTE: My closed sales counts differ from RMLS YTD totals as shown in their Feb. report. Adding closed sales totals from RMLS reports for January (732) to closed sales in Feb. ( 857 ) totals 1,589 and not the 1,613 YTD closed sales total shown in the February RMLS report. Anyone have any idea why the RMLS YTD closed sale number differs from the addition of their Jan. and Feb monthly closed sale numbers?

Economic Forecast Projects 6% Drop in Oregon Home Price Index in Next Year and 3.5% from 2009-2012.

The table I constructed with this data is HERE.

Oregon Economic Forecast "Other Quarterly Data" Excel spreadsheet with complete index data is HERE.

NLIHC: Portland Metro Lower Priced Homes Had Smaller Decline than Higher Priced Homes.

NLIHC story from Memo to Members is HERE. (They looked at Case-Shiller Tiered housing price data available HERE.)

Portland not typical of other metro areas according to the story:

"Looking at the change over the past two years, housing prices in the lower cost tier (bottom third of the housing market) have declined 34% while the prices of houses in the higher cost tier (top third of the housing market) have declined by 20%, on average, across metropolitan areas. The decline in housing prices does appear to be moderating somewhat. At 27%, the average rate of decline among metropolitan areas in the past year for homes in the lower tier was well below the two-year rate. Similarly, since 2007 the price index for high tier homes fell at a lower 16%."

...."Portland saw low-tier housing prices, those priced below $232,305, fall 10%, while high-tier homes, those priced above $325,253, saw nearly equal losses of 12%"

Quick Case-Shiller Post: We're Number 9; 11.5% Annual , 2.3% Monthly Decline.

Working on some other things right now.
A quick comparison table is posted below.
National Case Shiller release for November is HERE.

Metro Area	NOV. 2008	Change from OCT 08	Year to Year Change	OCT. Rank	Year Over Year Rank
Dallas	118.34	-1.90%	-3.30%	5	1
Denver	127.65	-1.10%	-4.30%	1	2
Cleveland	107.43	-1.20%	-5.20%	2	3
Charlotte	125.61	-1.90%	-5.30%	4	4
Boston	155.03	-2.60%	-7.40%	13	5
New York	186.81	-1.60%	-8.60%	3	6
Seattle	166.23	-2.50%	-11.20%	12	7
Atlanta	116.57	-2.70%	-11.20%	14	8
Portland	162.62	-2.30%	-11.50%	9	9
Chicago	141.44	-2.80%	-12.50%	15	10
Minneapolis	133.22	-2.10%	-16.30%	6	11
Washington	180.5	-2.40%	-19.40%	11	12
Detroit	83.42	-3.10%	-20.70%	18	13
Tampa	160.86	-2.80%	-20.90%	16	14
San Diego	155.47	-2.30%	-25.80%	10	15
Los Angeles	175.85	-2.20%	-26.90%	7	16
Miami	169.62	-2.20%	-28.70%	8	17
San Francisco	135.28	-3.00%	-30.80%	17	18
Las Vegas	138.04	-3.30%	-31.60%	19	19
Phoenix	130.54	-3.40%	-32.90%	20	20

New Study Projects Housing Price Decline Economic Impact.

Bloomberg News story is HERE.

PDF of study itself (link is also found within story) is HERE.

WSJ Says 11% of Portland Metro Homes Bought in Last 5 Years Are Underwater.

WSJ says that new study concludes that 1 in 6 of all homes in U.S. are underwater (home is worth less now than total debt).

HERE is link to WSJ Flash graphic that shows data for Portland and several other metro areas for loans over the last 5 years. (Look for "Cities in Reverse" heading within graphic).Only good news is that 11% underwater % for loans in last 5 years for Portland metro is a LOT less than all other metro areas included in graphic, (Phoenix underwater % for buyers in last 5 years is 40%+, Las Vegas and Detroit 50%+).

Related Seattle PI story HERE.

Comment: As someone who bought a home in Portland at height of earlier condo boom in 1980, I have some experience in being underwater for several years. Only saving grace for me is that I had an ARM loan, whose rate continued to decline as interest rates went down from peak inflation---15% when I bought my home. As interest dropped, my mortgage payment went down as fast, if not faster, than my value. ARM rates today will not decline with same speed or direction, so owners today faced with different economic choice than mine.

Private Mtg Insurance Company: 190 Zip Codes in Oregon are in "Declining Markets".

AIG United Guarantee, a private mortgage insurance company, now lists many Oregon markets and zip codes as "declining".

Their early June 2008 listing is "HERE"; I count 190 zip codes in Oregon listed as "declining" on pages 28 and 29. (That's 39% of the 484 Oregon zip codes I find listed on this commercial website HERE).

Limitations that United Guarantee applies to "declining markets" include:

• Maximum 90% LTV. Maximum 85% LTV for 2-unit dwellings.
• Minimum 680 credit score for loans up to $417,000 ($533,850 for 2-units), and 700 minimum credit score for jumbo loans.
• Second homes, condominiums, co-op, and construction-to-permanent loans are ineligible.
  

Portland Metro Case-Shiller Year to Year Housing Index Decrease Continues, but Month to Month Shows Increase.

The S&P/Case-Shiller April 2008 metro home price data was released Tuesday morning. My calculations for the Portland Metro area:

• YEAR TO YEAR (April 07-April 08): The Portland metro index decreased from 183.53 to 174.82, a 4.7% decrease.
  
• MONTH to MONTH (March 08-April 08): The Portland metro index INCREASED from 174.39 to 174.82 a .3% INCREASE.This is the first month to month increase in 9 months.
• DECLINE FROM JULY 07 PEAK: The peak index month was July 07 at 186.51; the decline since then has been 6.2%%.
• The PDF of the Case-Shiller national press release notes for April SHOULD BE HERE; the Excel file with April data for all metro areas IS HERE. (As of 9:45 AM (east coast time), 45 minutes after scheduled posting time, the link to the national release was still not valid so it is not possible for me to confirm by looking at it how many other metro areas may have had a monthly increases. Calculating from the Excel spreadsheet it appears to me that Portland was one of eight areas with a monthly index increase. All of this makes me wonder if there was an error in either the spreadsheet or the press release).
  

Portland Home Price Index Drops 2% Year to Year, Decline Since July 07 Peak is 5.5%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller February 2008 metro home price data was released Tuesday morning. My calculations for the Portland Metro area:

• YEAR TO YEAR (Feb 07-Feb 08): The Portland metro index decreased from 179.90 to 176.24, a 2% decrease. This is 4 times the .5% year to year decline for January.
  
• MONTH to MONTH (Jan 08-Feb 08): The Portland metro index dropped from 178.81 to 176.24 , a 1.4% decrease.
• DECLINE FROM JULY 07 PEAK:This marks the seventh month in a row the Portland metro index has declined--the peak index month was July 07 at 186.51; the decline since then has been 5.5%.
• The PDF of the Case-Shiller national press release notes for February are HERE; the Excel file with data for all metro areas is HERE.

Portland Home Prices Monthly Slide Greatest in 20 Years.

The S&P/Case-Shiller January 2008 metro home price data was released this morning. My calculations for the Portland Metro area:

• YEAR TO YEAR (Jan 07-Jan 08): The Portland metro index decreased from 179.79 to 178.81, a .5% decrease. This is the first time in 20 years that the Portland year to year price index has decreased.
  
• MONTH to MONTH(Dec 07-Jan 08): The Portland metro index dropped from 182.47 to 178.81, a 2% decrease. This is the LARGEST monthly decline in the Portland index in the last 20 years, and double the next closest decline of 1% in Dec. 1990.(Excel file with Case -Shiller data for all metro areas is HERE).
• DECLINE FROM JULY 07 PEAK:This marks the sixth month in a row the Portland metro index has declined--the peak index month was July 07 at 186.51; the decline since then has been 4.1%.

Latest Oregon Economic Forecast Projected Home Price Changes Are Overstated.

Buried in the most recent State of Oregon Economic Forecast HERE (MS Excel) are assumptions about the direction of home sale prices for Oregon. (The economic forecast uses a Freddie Mac repeat conventional purchase index to project/track Oregon home sales price changes).

The forecast projection is that the price index will increase by 3.9% in 2007, 2.8% in 2008, and 4.3% in 2009, (comparing first quarter 2008 vs first quarter 2007 etc).

However, index data already available show that the 2007 projected index increase is likely overstated. This 2007 shortfall then calls into question the projected increases in 2008 and 2009, particularly when the forecast also projects significant continuing declines in national median sales prices for those periods.

2007 Analysis

• The projected 2007 index increase for quarters two and three totals 2.5%; the actual increase was 2.32 for those two quarters,using the (MS Excel) state index actual data found HERE.
• The actual third quarter index increase was .44% instead of the projected .74% increase--that's a 41% shortfall in the most recent quarter. (To be fair, the second quarter actual increase exceeded the forecast projection, 1.88% vs a projected 1.72%).
  
• Given the slow down in the actual rate of increase in the third quarter, the projected 4th. quarter increase of an additional .8% seems overstated as does the projected increase of .6% in the first quarter of 2008.
• With all this, I conclude that the projected index increase from 1st quarter 2007-first quarter 2008 of 3.9% is clearly overstated. In my mind this calls into serious question the likelihood of the continuing significant increases projected for 2008 and 2009.

(While it seems clear to me that future forecast home price increases are overstated, the impact that lower sales price increases (OR decreases) will have on the revenues included in the economic forecast is not direct and is not known).

Portland Metro Asking Price Dropped by More than $18K, November to November.

Yesterday's post HERE detailed the continuing monthly decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller index for the Portland metro area, and a reported modest year to year increase in median sales prices.

However, using one of the tools found in the right pane of the blog [Portland Metro Asking Prices ], I discovered that the median metro Portland ASKING price, both monthly and year to year, shows a significant DECLINE.

Because it has more up to date data than the S&P/Case Shiller index (November vs. October) and because it captures the pricing attitudes of sellers, the comparisons available using this tool provide a possible additional tool with which to gauge the direction of median sales prices.

Tool Results:
November 2007-October 2007:
Median Asking Price DOWN by 2%, More than $6.500.
Home Inventory DOWN by 4%.

November 2007-November 2006:
Median Asking Price DOWN by 5.2%, More than $18.000.
Home Inventory UP by 27.2%.

October 2007-October 2006
Median Asking Price DOWN by 3.3%, More than $11.500.
Home Inventory UP by 29.5%.