Monday, March 16, 2009

YTD 2009 vs. 2008 RMLS Portland Data Analysis: Total Closed Sales Volume is Down $372 Million (44%).

HERE is a analysis I just completed of Year to Date RMLS closed sales through February vs. same months for 2008. (Page 2 includes monthly sales data for both Jan and Feb. 2009 and 2008).

My analysis has several different geographic combinations:
  1. The "All PDX" category combines a "All City of Portland" subcategory I constructed (all City of Portland RMLS sub areas) and a "PDX, Not city of Portland" subcategory I constructed.
  2. A "Non PDX" category combines RMLS Marion/Polk and North Coastal categories.
  3. Finally, the "ALL" category combines the "All PDX", and "Non PDX" categories.
( I did not include Clark County in Washington in all of these categories).

"All PDX" Area: YTD Dollar Sales Volume Down 44%, $372 Million:
  • This new calculation helps illustrate the combined impact of lower closed sales and lower average sales prices. To compute, I took the average sales price for each month and multiplied the number of closed sales to arrive at closed sale dollars and added the totals for the two months together.
  • Using this method I conclude that in "All PDX" category I created, total sales DOLLARS are down by $372 Million in the first two months of the year compared to same two months in 2008. [$846 Million vs $473 Million].
  • That is a decline of 44% in total sales DOLLARS.
  • The 47% rate of decline in the "All , City of Portland" subcategory, the decline in sales dollars is close to the overall decline in the Portland area.
  • Rates of declines in dollar sales volume for two RMLS areas outside of Portland (Marion/Polk ,33%) and North Coastal areas, 27%) were significantly less than 44% decline in the Portland area.
NOTE: My closed sales counts differ from RMLS YTD totals as shown in their Feb. report. Adding closed sales totals from RMLS reports for January (732) to closed sales in Feb. ( 857 ) totals 1,589 and not the 1,613 YTD closed sales total shown in the February RMLS report. Anyone have any idea why the RMLS YTD closed sale number differs from the addition of their Jan. and Feb monthly closed sale numbers?

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