FHA Facing Potential for $50 Billion in Losses; Wait and See for Next Weeks Actuarial Report.

WSJ story is HERE, however report which is basis for story:

1. Was commissioned by conservative AEI AND 
2. It is NOT the formal actuarial annual report due out next week.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Correction: Harvard Housing Report Says Low Price Homes Declined More than High Price Homes, But Portland Best of Metro Areas Listed.

Correction: Cleaned up % decline shown in text bullets to match data in table
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WSJ has picked up HERE on one of the tables in the Harvard Joint Center State of the Nation's Housing Report for 2011. 

Table shows that from their peaks since 2000, low price homes have declined MORE in price than high price homes in 16 metro areas. (High price homes are those in top third of prices, low price homes are those in lowest third of prices).

I went back and calculated the ratio of low price vs high price decline and as table pasted below shows the ratio of low price home price decline vs high price home price decline was LOWEST in the Portland metro area amongst the 16 metro areas listed.  

1. Portland's low price home decline from the peak was 27.9% vs a decline of 25% for high priced homes; this means that low price homes declined only 12% more than high price homes.
2. I calculate the non weighted average ratio for these 16 metro areas at 72%; ratios for select metro areas: 

• In Seattle low price home sales prices declined 31% more than high price home sales prices.
• In Phoenix low price home sales prices declined 41% more than high price home sales prices.
• In Minneapolis low price home sales prices declined 67% more than high price home sales prices.
• In Denver low price home sales prices declined 91% more than high price home sales prices.

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New Market Specific WSJ Real Estate Charts, Table: Portland Metro a Mixed Bag.

Link that includes graph for Portland metro is HERE; using WSJ data I created a ranked Metro table HERE.

Table shows out of 30 metro areas that Portland Metro ranks better than most in inventory reduction and past due loans; slightly below the middle of the pack for months of supply and unemployment rate, and close to bottom in price change. (Seattle outperforms Portland in all but the past due loans category).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Number of Underwater Borrowers Overstated, Concentrated.

Interesting column from  WSJ Number Guy columnist Carl Bialik is HERE. Points out that:

1. Underwater borrower % applies to only those with mortgages, and about 1/3rd of homeowners do NOT have mortgages. Using starting national 22.5% underwater percentage (of those with mortgages), this means that only 15% of ALL homeowners are underwater.
2. Degree of Underwater varies. Only 16% of those with mortgages are underwater  by 10% or more. Applied nationally this means that 10.6% of ALL homeowners are underwater by more than 10%. 
3. Underwater borrowers are heavily concentrated in a few states. When I look at underwater borrower data, 54% of all underwater borrowers are in just FIVE states (California,Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia). Another 18% are located in another 5 states (Ohio, Illinois, Nevada, Texas, Maryland). This means that TEN states have 72% of all underwater borrowers. (Oregon has 1% of all underwater borrowers).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Like Airlines, Landlords Using Software to Optimize Rents.

WSJ story HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Which Cities Have the Most Housing Stress/Risk?: WSJ Story Includes Oregon Data.

WSJ story HERE includes interactive graphics for 534 areas of the country, using 2009 ACS data on owner cost burdens, health insurance coverage, and "population not working".

Using data I extracted from the WSJ story below is a table with my calculation of the ratings and rankings for Oregon areas

NOTES

1. GRANTS PASS has the highest Oregon risk.
2. Corvallis has the lowest Oregon risk.
3. The population not working is very high for some areas, and IF it includes retirees, the housing stress ratings/rankings could be somewhat distorted.

Oregon Ratings and Rankings for Housing Stress
Area	Spending More than 30% of Income on Housing	Without Health Insurance	Population Not Working	Housing-stress indicator	Housing Stress Rank
Grants Pass	52%	18%	40%	109.90	26
Coos Bay	42%	21%	39%	102.50	59
Bend	49%	18%	35%	101.30	68
Medford	48%	18%	35%	101.10	70
Eugene-Springfield	43%	18%	40%	100.20	72
Roseburg	39%	18%	40%	97.10	87
Klamath Falls	35%	21%	40%	96.50	93
Salem	41%	20%	35%	96.00	100
Albany-Lebanon	37%	16%	38%	91.90	124
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton	41%	15%	31%	87.00	185
United States	38%	15%	33%	85.70
Pendleton-Hermiston	29%	20%	35%	83.10	244
Corvallis	36%	12%	33%	82.00	258

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon Has 17th Worst State Rank for Borrowers Underwater+Near Underwater Borrower Percentage, with 148,000+ Underwater/Near Underwater Homeowners.

Last weeks WSJ had a story related to the new FHA underwater refinancing program HERE. Included in that story was a link to a table HERE, showing state "underwater" borrowers as of June 30, 2010.

I have reconstructed that data and added ranks and pasted it below showing Oregon's "underwater" borrowers compared to the national average and to Idaho and Washington.

Some observations:

1. Oregon had 109,135 "underwater" borrowers AND another 38,046 "near underwater" borrowers.
2. Those 148,081 "underwater+near underwater" borrowers , represented 21.3% of all loans in the state.
3. Oregon 21.3% "underwater+near underwater" percentage of loans was still significantly better (24%) than the US average of 27.9%.
4. Oregon's 21.3% was also better than Idaho's 28.9%, but worse than Washington's 20.6%
5. Oregon had the 17th worst "underwater+near underwater" percentage among 44 states where data was available.
6. Idaho had the 7th worst underwater+near underwater percentage in the country and Washington the 20th.
7. Oregon homeowners retained $56+ billion in equity in their homes and nationally homeowners retained $3.8 TRILLION.

State	National	Idaho	Oregon	Washington
Mortgages	47,802,783	242,694	695,439	1,407,297
Negative Equity Mortgages	10,971,224	57,615	109,135	214,468
Near** Negative Equity Mortgages	2,356,100	12,538	38,946	76,383
Negative Equity Share PLUS Near Negative Equity Mortgages	13,327,324	70,153	148,081	290,851
Negative Equity Share	23.00%	23.70%	15.70%	15.20%
Near** Negative Equity Share	4.90%	5.20%	5.60%	5.40%
Negative Equity Share PLUS Near Negative Equity Share	27.90%	28.90%	21.30%	20.60%
Total Property Value	$12,707,027,160,944	$48,968,685,624	$180,105,676,362	$441,737,928,305
Mortgage Debt Outstanding	$8,875,764,627,185	$35,649,637,071	$123,683,325,688	$293,421,788,044
Net Homeowner Equity	$3,831,262,533,759	$13,319,048,553	$56,422,350,674	$148,316,140,261
Loan-to-Value Ratio	70%	73%	69%	66%
Rank Neg Equity Share %, Worst to Best		7	17	21
Rank Neg Equity Share %+ Near Neg Equity Share, Worst to Best		7	17	20

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

WSJ RE Blog Post on Hardest Hit Programs Includes Links to Oregon Housing Blog Posts.

WSJ RE Blog post from Nick Timiraos is HERE.

First link to OHB within WSJ post is to my post about lack of public disclosure from states and second link is to table I created showing comparison of Hardest Hit funding with funding from 4 mainstream HUD housing programs.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Oregon Rate of Underwater Borrowers is 39% Better Than National Average.

WSJ has state table HERE showing a variety of underwater borrower data.

Table indicates that Oregon's underwater % is 13.9% vs a national average of 22.6%; that works out to a rate that is 39% below the national average.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

HFA's to Get $35 Billion to Help Restart Mortgage Revenue Bond Programs.

WSJ story is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Hope For the Text Challenged (Like Me).

Great story in WSJ HERE includes listing of common text terms. Also includes some translation sites:

"The confusion has given rise to a number of resources that provide English translations for terms like WRUD (“What are you doing?”) and TTYL (“Talk to you later”)—among them independent Web sites like NetLingo.com and UrbanDictionary.com and corporate ones like LG Mobile Phones’ DTXTR.com."

Now, GBTW...

WSJ: Subprime Problems Compared to Savings and Loan Problems; Industry Interviews Also Featured.

[TITLE CORRECTION}
Wall Street Journal has good front page story today HERE comparing scope of sub prime problems with savings and loan losses from 1980's (and other past financial problems).

Story estimates savings and loans losses at $189 Billion, sub prime possible losses from $150-$400 billion.(Story says that eventual sub prime losses will be a function of how much home prices decline).

Interview links with George Soros, Paul Volker and others should be HERE.

[If you run into a problem opening the links please drop a comment below. I have WSJ online subscription and I sometimes think an article is available to the public when it isn't].

New Link Added: State and Metro Mortgage Maps and Tables (Online WSJ Mtg. Maps)

I have added a new link in the links section in the right hand pane of the blog, ONLINE WSJ Mtg. Maps.

It will take users to an informative series of mortgage maps and tables on the public portion of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) ONLINE. Maps and tables include states and select metro areas on at least these topics:

• High Cost Loan /Subprime Loan Market Shares
• Delinquencies and Home Prices
• First and Second Mortgage Delinquency Rates

(I have a subscription to the paid subscription version of the WSJ online, so if users without subscriptions run into a problem viewing these maps would appreciate hearing about that).