Monday, January 10, 2011

Number of Underwater Borrowers Overstated, Concentrated.

Interesting column from  WSJ Number Guy columnist Carl Bialik is HERE. Points out that:
  1. Underwater borrower % applies to only those with mortgages, and about 1/3rd of homeowners do NOT have mortgages. Using starting national 22.5% underwater percentage (of those with mortgages), this means that only 15% of ALL homeowners are underwater.
  2. Degree of Underwater varies. Only 16% of those with mortgages are underwater  by 10% or more. Applied nationally this means that 10.6% of ALL homeowners are underwater by more than 10%. 
  3. Underwater borrowers are heavily concentrated in a few states. When I look at underwater borrower data, 54% of all underwater borrowers are in just FIVE states (California,Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia). Another 18% are located in another 5 states (Ohio, Illinois, Nevada, Texas, Maryland). This means that TEN states have 72% of all underwater borrowers. (Oregon has 1% of all underwater borrowers).
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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