Oregon Department of Human Services Budget Information, Including TANF and Self Sufficiency.

SB 5229 related material can be found HERE. 

Self Sufficiency programs presentation from department management is HERE.  Noted on pages 9-10, change from 2007: 

• TANF caseload up 96%,  two parent TANF caseload up 475% (graph pasted below).
• SNAP caseload up 90%.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

09-11 Oregon Tax Expenditure Report Analysis, With Housing Breakout: Rental Housing Gets 50 Cents Out of Each $100 In Oregon Tax Breaks.

I have just an analysis of the 2009-2011 Oregon Tax Expenditure report.

While I focus my analysis on housing tax expenditures, I include data on all 380 Oregon tax expenditures. You can find my new Excel workbook HERE. (This is the only place where I believe you will find this data in this format).

A PDF version of several worksheets from the workbook is HERE, it also includes (at the end) the full 2009-2011 Oregon Tax Expenditure Report).

The Excel data and analysis workbook includes 7 separate worksheets:

1. READ ME.
2, Overall Summary.(Includes a graph showing housing share of each $100 in tax expenditures).
3, Housing Summary 09-11. (Includes a graph showing home ownership share of housing tax expenditures).
4. Housing Summary 07-09 (From a prior report that I had done a year ago).
5. 09-11 Housing Only RANKED (ranked by $$).
6. All Tax Expend 09-11 (380 separate tax expenditure items, ranked by $$).
7, Pivot, All T.E. 09-11. ( A pivot table for worksheet 6)

Highlights of 2009-2011 Oregon State Tax Expenditure Analysis:

• Total Oregon tax expenditures will increase by 10.7% [$2.98 BILLION] to $30.908 BILLION
• Total Oregon tax expenditures for housing will increase by 6.5% [$109.8 Million], to $1.801 BILLION.
• For every $100 in total Oregon tax expenditures, rental housing will receive 50 Cents.
• For every $100 in total Oregon tax expenditures, homeowners will receive $5.32.
• Homeowners will get 91% of all housing tax expenditures ($1.645 BILLION).
• Rental Housing will get 9% of all housing tax expenditures ($155.9 Million).

(As I frequently need to remind myself, make sure to DIVIDE these numbers by 2 if you are interested in annual amounts).

Joint Oregon Senate and House Revenue and Finance Committee Meeting Nov. 19th. to Include Housing Topics.

Have added this Wednesday Nov. 19th. item to blog calendar at bottom of page, includes room number.

December economic and revenue forecast is first item on agenda at 8:30 AM.

Housing to follow from 10-11 A.M.Housing topics:

• Update on Use of Affordable Housing Lenders Credit
• Implications of Recent Federal Actions
• 2009 Issues

PDF of agenda is HERE.

First Ever Breakout of $1.4+ Billion in Oregon State Tax Breaks for Housing: Home Owners Get 91% of State Housing Tax Breaks.

I began this blog shortly after my retirement last year on July 4th, my independence day after 37 years of federal service. I wanted to make my 1st. anniversary post special, presenting Oregon housing data that hasn't before been publicly highlighted.

So, I First Constructed a Report In Excel Showing ALL Oregon STATE Tax Expenditures.
I constructed a one of a kind Excel workbook HERE that details ALL projected Oregon tax expenditures for 2005-2007 and 2007-2009 as extracted from reports from the State Revenue Office. Two worksheets show ALL state tax expenditure items. One worksheet lists the tax expenditures by a reference number and the second sorts those same expenditures in descending order by $$ during the 2007-2009 biennium. (Revenue Department source material in PDF format that I used to construct the workbook can be found HERE for 2007-2009 and HERE for 2005-2007).

I Then Constructed the First Ever Oregon State HOUSING Tax Break Report, Separating State Housing Tax Breaks Into Home Owner and Rental Categories.
In the workbook you also will find two separate worksheets of housing related state tax expenditures. The first worksheet groups tax expenditures into home ownership and rental housing expenditures. The second worksheet takes that data and ranks housing tax expenditures in descending order by $$ and also includes a simple pie graph showing the % of all housing tax expenditures split between home ownership and rental housing.

Some key points about Oregon HOUSING tax expenditures for the 2007-2009 biennium:

1. Home ownership related state tax expenditures total more than $1.29 Billion.
2. Home ownership state tax expenditures account for 91% of all Oregon tax expenditures while rental tax expenditures account for 9% of state housing tax expenditures.
3. Renter households were 35.2% of all Oregon households in 2006. If renter households received 35.2% of state housing tax breaks instead of 9%, housing tax breaks for renters would have increased by nearly $330 million during the 2007-2009 biennium [increasing from $132.8 to $462.5 Million].
4. Two deductions--The home mortgage interest deduction and the property tax deduction for homeowners-- account for 86% of the total of Oregon HOUSING tax expenditures.
5. In contrast, the largest rental housing tax expenditure, for accelerated rental housing depreciation, accounts for only 3% of ALL Oregon HOUSING tax expenditures.
6. The total for Oregon HOUSING state tax expenditures grew by nearly $165 Million from the 2005-2007 biennium; a growth in projected home mortgage interest deductions accounted for $123 million of that growth.

Some caveats and notes:

1. Tax expenditures for the 2007-2009 biennium are projections only, as the biennial legislative session was not completed at the time the Revenue Department issued this report. Changes made during the 2008 special session to tax expenditures are also not included in this report.
2. I necessarily made some classification judgments for housing expenditures to assign them to the rental or home ownership categories.
3. Note these are biennial expenditures--As I have had to remind myself sometimes, be sure to divide by 2 to get annual expenditures!

Earlier Post on Federal Home Ownership Expenditures
Earlier this year I did a post HERE reporting on federal expenditures for home ownership. That post projected that federal tax expenditures for home ownership will cost $1 Trillion from 2008-2012 and in 2012 will be reach the rate of $250 Billion annually.

Total Projected Federal Expenditures in Oregon PLUS State Expenditures for Oregon Homeownership: $4.145 Billion Annually.
If Oregon accounts for 1.5% of those federal home ownership expenditures the additional Oregon federal home ownership costs would be $3.75 Billion annually in 2012, or $7.5 Billion for a biennium.
Adding the 07-09 state tax expenditures of $1.29 billion to a projected 2012-2013 federal expenditure of $7.5 billion for Oregon yields a projected 2012-2013 state AND federal expenditures for Oregon home ownership of $8.29 billion, or $4.145 billion annually. (This estimate is low as the projected state tax expenditure estimate uses the earlier 07-09 time period).

Comments Invited:
The 2009--2011 version of the state tax expenditure report will be likely issued by the Revenue Department later this year or early next. Before I produce a similar report next year I am inviting your comments on what you found interesting, illuminating, confusing, questionable, or missing in the first Excel Oregon State Housing Tax Breaks report I did this year.

You can add a comment below this post or email me at housepdx@gmail.com

Latest Oregon Economic Forecast Projected Home Price Changes Are Overstated.

Buried in the most recent State of Oregon Economic Forecast HERE (MS Excel) are assumptions about the direction of home sale prices for Oregon. (The economic forecast uses a Freddie Mac repeat conventional purchase index to project/track Oregon home sales price changes).

The forecast projection is that the price index will increase by 3.9% in 2007, 2.8% in 2008, and 4.3% in 2009, (comparing first quarter 2008 vs first quarter 2007 etc).

However, index data already available show that the 2007 projected index increase is likely overstated. This 2007 shortfall then calls into question the projected increases in 2008 and 2009, particularly when the forecast also projects significant continuing declines in national median sales prices for those periods.

2007 Analysis

• The projected 2007 index increase for quarters two and three totals 2.5%; the actual increase was 2.32 for those two quarters,using the (MS Excel) state index actual data found HERE.
• The actual third quarter index increase was .44% instead of the projected .74% increase--that's a 41% shortfall in the most recent quarter. (To be fair, the second quarter actual increase exceeded the forecast projection, 1.88% vs a projected 1.72%).
  
• Given the slow down in the actual rate of increase in the third quarter, the projected 4th. quarter increase of an additional .8% seems overstated as does the projected increase of .6% in the first quarter of 2008.
• With all this, I conclude that the projected index increase from 1st quarter 2007-first quarter 2008 of 3.9% is clearly overstated. In my mind this calls into serious question the likelihood of the continuing significant increases projected for 2008 and 2009.

(While it seems clear to me that future forecast home price increases are overstated, the impact that lower sales price increases (OR decreases) will have on the revenues included in the economic forecast is not direct and is not known).