PMI Group has issued a new metro market assessment HERE.
In looking at the table on pages 6 and 7 you will see that Portland metro area has a "U.S. Market Risk index" of 66.4, vs a risk index of 30.3 for Seattle for the 4th Quarter 2008. [ .." a Risk Index score of 100 means there is a 100 percent chance that the Loan Performance All Transactions House Price Index for that MSA will be lower two years from the date of the data"].
Translation: According to PMI Group, there is a two thirds chance that the Portland home price index will be lower in two years [4th quarter 2010], while the chance for Seattle having a lower home price index at that time is less than 1/3rd.
In both cases the risk index for 4th Quarter 2008 has increased significantly compared to 3rd quarter of 2008. Portland's risk index increased by 199% (66.4 vs 22.2) while the risk index for Seattle increased by 189% ( 30.3 vs. 10.5).
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And Bend is hanging out with a 98.6% chance of a lower price index in two years. Go Bend!
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