March 2021: Oregon FHA Serious Delinquent Loan Data by County Includes Average Mortgage Equity/Principal Reduction.

In prior posts I constructed a national map of census tracts with 11 or more FHA seriously delinquent loans and then state tables that estimated statewide FHA seriously delinquent loans in all census tracts with 1 or more serious delinquencies. 

In this post I have constructed an Oregon county focused 2 page PDF landscaped formatted table HERE and embedded below. 

The table and this post again ONLY focuses on census tracts that have 11 or more seriously delinquent FHA loans and then aggregates that data to the county wide level in Oregon. This means that any Oregon county without any census tracts with 11 or more seriously delinquent loans will NOT appear in this analysis. 

The first page of the PDF focuses on seriously delinquent loans, the count of census tracts with those loans, their original mortgage amounts, their remaining debt, and their mortgage equity (the difference between the original mortgage and the unpaid current mortgage, AKA "principal reduction").  Mortgage equity however does NOT factor in any increase in home values. 

Unlike the last recession home values have generally been increasing in Oregon. This increase in value AND mortgage equity/principal reduction shown in the table provides a financial cushion that may prove to be useful in avoiding foreclosure and also open options for refinancing and or mortgage modification. 

The second page of the PDF file adds ALL outstanding FHA loans and compares the mortgage equity/principal reduction in all FHA loans to the mortgage equity/principal reduction in the seriously delinquent loans. 

Some observations:

1. There were 222 census tracts with 11 or more serious delinquencies and 137 census tracts (62%) were outside of the 3 county Portland metro area. 
2. The 2,310 serious delinquencies outside the 3 country Portland metro area were also 62% of the statewide total of 3,741.
3. There were 64,087 total FHA loans in force.  41,548 (65%) of the statewide total FHA loans in force were outside of the Portland metro. 
4. The statewide serious delinquency rate is 5.8%;  the 3 county Portland metro rate was higher at 6.3%. 
5. Statewide, serious delinquent mortgage equity was $75.5 million, averaging $19,134 per loan. The $23,102 average seriously delinquent mortgage equity was higher in the 3 county Portland metro area than the $16,676 average seriously delinquent mortgage equity outside the 3 county Portland metro area.
6. The statewide average mortgage equity in seriously delinquent loans ($19,134) is slightly higher than the average mortgage equity for ALL outstanding FHA loans ($19,048).  There are 10 counties where the reverse is true, but the variance in most of these counties (except Benton and Tillamook) is relatively slight. 

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New Census Tract Map is First With March Nationwide FHA Serious Delinquency Loan Data : 762,000 Loans; Outstanding Loan Balance=$126+ BILLION.

I recently downloaded FHA serious delinquency (90+ days) single family loan data from the end of March. 

My analysis found 65,177 US census tracts with 1 or more serious delinquencies, and of those there were 28,009 census tracts with 11 or more serious delinquencies. 

Because the values for census tracts with 10 or less delinquencies were suppressed for privacy reasons, I constructed a nationwide map of just those 28,009 census tracts with 11 or more serious FHA delinquencies. 

Nationally those 28,009 census tracts had a total of 762,260 seriously delinquent FHA loans; the outstanding loan balance for those loans was more than $126 BILLION. 

In Oregon the 222 census tracts with 11 or more serious delinquencies had a total of 3,741 serious delinquencies and the outstanding loan balance was more than $790 Million. 

Note that these counts and loan balances do NOT include seriously delinquent loans in census tracts with 1-10 serious delinquencies. There are more than 37,000 of those census tracts nationally and 523 in Oregon alone.  

The map of census tracts with 11 or more serious delinquencies is HERE and embedded below. (It may take a few seconds to fully load so be patient). 

The value shown in each census tract (with 11 or more serious delinquencies) is the number of serious delinquencies as of March 31, 2021. 

IF you click on an individual census tract a menu with additional information appears. It includes information on series delinquency counts from early quarterly periods and for the seriously delinquent loans information on the original FHA loan amounts and the remaining FHA loan balance for each quarterly period.

Heads Up:

Look for a future post with tables of state information on counts of census tracts with FHA single family serious delinquencies and estimated counts of FHA total serious delinquencies with the outstanding mortgage balance of those delinquencies. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Sample Portland Metro LIHTC Map Using HUD Mapping Tool.

Below is pasted a simple map I created showing only LIHTC properties in the Portland metro area, using the new HUD mapping website. (Data is likely a year or so out of date, as I can see it does not include for example a Lake Grove elderly project built during 2011). 

Additional layers of other projects and other demographics can be added to provide more context to this kind of a simple map. (I haven't yet figured out any way to export these kinds of maps into other map software).

Click to Enlarge

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

New Map: Oregon FY 2012 Zip Code FMR's vs. Actual FY 2012 FMR's.

HUD continues to advance the idea of small area (zip code) level rents to supplement/replace the county or Metro wide FMR's now in use.  For example, a recent HUD MF notice to multifamily project based Section 8 owners HERE said that in the future HUD plans that " all rent comparability studies will be required to justify proposed rents that exceed 110% of Small Area Fair Market Rents (SAFMR)."  

I am generally aware that FMR limits are sometimes used for CDBG and HOME programs, so broader HUD use of small area rents could conceivably also impact those programs in the future.

I recently discovered that HUD has posted an Excel file of nationwide FY 2012 Small Area/Zip Code rents HERE. (Important NOTE: Small Area/Zip Code FMR's at least for now are ONLY contemplated for use in Metro areas. In the voucher program Small Area FMR's have been limited as a demonstration to ONLY those areas where a housing authority has volunteered to use them).

I extracted Oregon FY 2012 Small Area rents and prepared an alpha PDF listing by county and zip code HERE showing the comparison of the actual 2 BR FMR for FY 2012 to the HUD published 2 BR FY 2012 small area/zip code rent. 

I count 121 Oregon zip codes where small area rents would be below actual FY 2012 FMR's and 130 zip codes where small area rents would be above actual FY 2012 FMR's.

I then uploaded and merged the FMR comparison data into Google Fusion and created the embedded map below that illustrates how the FY 2012 small area rent would compare to the HUD FY 2012 FMR.

The caption showing the colors used for different % is pasted below [Bright green signifies zip code rents are 120% or more of actual FMR's and dark red indicates zip codes rents are 90% or less of actual FMR's].

A link to the merged data and the map is HERE and the map is embedded below (You can drag the map up/down/sideways to see areas in Oregon outside of the Portland metro area; you can zoom in; and, if you click on a zip code, a box will open with the data for that zip code).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Out of Reach 2011 is Out, My First Map Shows Housing Wage Change in Oregon 2000-2011 Was Lower than Median for All States.

The NLIHC Out of Reach 2011 Report is out HERE.  I am sure there will be several Oregon specific reports coming out over next few days from different sources. 

My first effort is a state map I created in Google Fusion HERE and embedded below. (You will need a Google account to view the GF table link, but not the map below). 

The map shows changes in the housing wage from 2000-2011. Clicking on a state will reveal the housing wage for 2011 and the change in housing wage from 2000-2011. (The Google Fusion table has more data including housing wages and ranks for 2010, 2009, and 2000).

In the underlying data you will see that Oregon ranks 11th best (lowest) with a housing wage increase of 35%, less than the unweighted national median state increase of 42%.

I have inserted a picture of the style used to code the map below:

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Google Fusion Map: Serious Delinquency Rates by Metro Area, December 2010.

Yesterday Foreclosure-Response.org published data on foreclosure rates and serious delinquency rates by US Metro Area. Their PR with links to their data is HERE.

I exported their Excel data and combined it with a SHAPEFILE for Metro and Micro areas that I had loaded to Google Fusion. The result is a map of 366 metro areas embedded below; a link to the map and the merged data is HERE.

A mouse click on any metro area will reveal a box with the foreclosure rate, serious delinquency rate, and the ranking for that Metro area on the serious delinquency rate.  (I pasted below a legend showing the percentages of serious delinquency represented by colors on the map).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Google Fusion Map of Demonstration Oregon Metro Area Zip Code Level Voucher Rents vs Actual FY 2011 2 BR FMR's.

HUD has recently opened the process for Metro PHA's  to participate in a project to demonstrate the use of small area (zip code level) Fair Market Rents. 

HUD's Federal Register Request for Participation Notice, with a June 6, 2011 deadline, is HERE. The demonstration is ONLY available to Metro PHA's and HUD does NOT plan on using small area FMR's in non metro counties. HUD has published the current zip code level rents that would be used in this demonstration in an Excel file HERE. 

To demonstrate how Google Fusion can help visualize this data, I created the embedded map below [Link to Google Fusion table used to create the map is HERE] which shows a comparison of metro zip code level 2 BR rents vs FY 2011 2 BR Fair Market rents by Oregon Zip Code. [You may need a Google account to access the Google Fusion table].

The map color code used for the demonstration zip code rent vs the FMR rent

• Up to 90% of FMR=Red
• 90% to 100% of FMR=Yellow
• 100 to 120% of FMR=Blue
• 120+ of FMR=Green

If you click on any zip code in the map you will see the FY 2011 2 Bedroom FMR by bedroom size, the Zip Code based 2 Bedroom FMR, and the ratio of the latter to the former.

In addition to helping visualize the voucher data, this Google Fusion work product provides a concrete contemporary example of how boundary maps in Google Fusion can be combined with other topical information, so long as there is a common geo field in the boundary and in the topical data files. [Did I also mention there is no cost for the software to do this?].

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Updated--New Map, Oregon Census Tract Diversity Index Values and More.

Update: I am in process of modifying the embedded map to show variations on the 2010 Diversity Index. Goal is to get Census tracts with values less than statewide average displayed with light red fill; those will values up to 50 are shown in light green, and those with values above 50 are shown in a brighter green. One completed this will confirm the ability to display on web maps customized variations in topical data with different fill colors, using free Google Fusion and Google Mapping software. I will do a second update once I am satisfied with the way variations are displayed, right now it's a work in progress.
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As another Fair Housing Month project I have embedded below a Google Map which has select population and housing data for ALL Oregon Census Tracts. Included are the Diversity Index values for both 2000 and 2010, the percentage change in the Diversity Index, population, the Hispanic population, and the housing vacancy rate.  (The link HERE should also open this map in Google Fusion; although I have made the data files and map public you might need a Google account to open?).

Map was created in Google Fusion by merging SHAPE files for Census Tract geography and the Diversity Index values I had previously calculated for each census tracts.

Navigate and zoom in to the area of choice and click it with a mouse, and the available data for that census tract will appear. 

Data visualization could include current or future Census 2010 data, or data from any data table that includes a Census Tract geo or other geo code. (Think voucher counts, LIHTC unit counts, poverty rates, food stamp recipients, free or reduced price school lunches etc). 

If you know of other Oregon based Google Fusion maps of interest please add a comment with a link to the map or website. 


Orginally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.