Were NW Oregon Housing Authority HUD Voucher Funds Really "Slashed"? Show Me the Data.

In last week a couple of news/ newsletter stories have appeared reporting the loss of 285 vouchers for tenants at the NW Oregon Housing Authority.

Daily Astorian story is HERE. It says that voucher funds were "slashed", but does not provide any before or after dollar figures. Another newsletter story talks about "cuts".

It continues to amaze me that reporters claim budget "reductions" ,"cuts" , or "slashes" in news stories without providing actual BEFORE and AFTER data. (This amazement is not limited to HUD related stories).

I don't know the actual voucher allocation for NW Oregon for 2010, but I do know the reporter COULD have figured out how much they spent on vouchers in FY 2008 by looking at their FY 2008 single audit filing HERE. Also the reporter COULD have asked for the actual FY 2009 and FY 2008 HUD voucher allocations, and reported how those numbers differed. (If the reporter HAD that data and it didn't show a reduction, and they didn't report that information in their story, that's an even bigger reporting issue).

With regard to prior year spending NW's audit on page 3 says they spent $6,269,408 in HUD voucher funding in fiscal year FY 2008, which ended last June 30th. There is no data in the story showing comparable spending for FY 2009, which ends June 30th, but NW obviously has that information as they are using a June 30th expenditure level to project how many families need to lose their vouchers

My STRONG hunch is that when all is said and done:
1. NW Oregon's FY 2009 voucher spending for the period ending on June 30th will NOT be lower than FY 2008. (That public audit won't be available until late this year, early next, but clearly NW is basing their reduction on their expected June 30th spending level).
2. Also, NW Oregon's CY 2009 HUD voucher allocation is NOT likely to be less than their CY 2008 allocation.

Therefore, if my hunch is correct, the only "slash" or "cut" is from the EXPECTED budget that NW Oregon HOPED to get.

Don't get me wrong, it IS a challenge to forecast expenditures as:

1. Costs per unit can vary as tenant incomes change.
   
2. Congress takes additional months to decide on final allocation amounts. My recollection is that HUD budget wasn't passed until March 09, for budget year that began in October of 2008.
   

However, this is a situation that happens for housing authorities every year AND very few other housing authorities in Oregon have been off far enough to have to pull back existing vouchers.

Unfortunately, estimating errors by NW Oregon were the primary reason that this situation took place. More unfortunately, this is NOT the first time that has happened with NW Oregon--It happened about 3-4 years ago while I still worked for HUD.

The good news is that HUD and OHCS and other local partners will no doubt do the best they can to come up with creative ways of using other funding (more than likely HUD $$ from different pots) to lessen the impact for the 285 families scheduled to lose their vouchers. (This number is double that what it would have been if estimating errors were caught at the beginning of the year).

However, let's be clear. The reported "cut" was highly likely to be from an erroneous estimate of funding made entirely by NW Oregon, and NOT from any approved budget or past allocation or expenditure level.

One can only hope at some point their will be a greater media attention to the source of the problem, which is NOT HUD or OHCS, but the estimating errors made by NW Oregon HA.

P.S. IF you think I am all wet and have the data to back it up, please send it to me.
IF it turns out that this indeed was a "CUT" from a HUD approved budget or prior year allocation I would be HAPPY to be proven wrong AND to acknowledge that fact.