Sunday, August 8, 2010

Overall, Oregon Recent FHA Loans Doing 5% Worse than National Average; Loans Below $150K Doing 25% Better.

I pulled some data from FHA's Neighborhood Watch site recently and have just now started to analyze it. 

Data covers Oregon and US FHA loans with beginning amortization from July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2010. Includes counts of loan originations AND counts of serious delinquencies or claims for these loans. (More than 42k Oregon FHA originations, and 3.4 million US FHA originations are included in the data).

I stratified the data by mortgage amount to get a feel about how serious delinquencies and claims varied by mortgage amount and how Oregon compared to US performance. 

Table I constructed is HERE; some observations:

  1. Overall Oregon's serious delinquency and claims rate of 3.84% is 5% above the US rate of 3.66%.
  2. For both Oregon and US, serious delinquencies and default rates go UP with higher mortgage amounts. Rate for loans in Oregon above $300k is 4.41%, compared to rate of 2.41% for loans less than $150k
  3. Oregon loans $150k and below are doing 25% better than the US average. Oregon's serious delinquency and claims rate for these loans is 2.41%, while the US rate for these loans is 3.23%.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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