Friday, May 13, 2011

Corrected: Latest Oregon Economic Forecast Lowers Expectations for Oregon Home Prices, Oregon and US Housing Starts.

Corrected link to table I created
When Oregon releases Economic Forecasts it also releases other data forecasting future economic changes that directly relate to housing. (Housing data includes home prices and construction starts).

The latest set of quarterly Excel "Other" data is HERE. I kept the "other" data from the February Economic Forecast (Prior post HERE) and did some comparisons of 4th quarter projections for 2011-2017.
The comparisons and a graph can be found in the PDF file I created HERE.

Some observations:
  1. Compared to the February 2011 Forecast the May 2011 Forecast has reduced the expectation for the Oregon Home Price index by more than 4% for the 4th quarters in every year through 2015.
  2. The Forecast 4th Quarter 2015 Oregon home price index value in the May Forecast (413.33) is about the level of the price index (412.6) in the 1st quarter of 2006.  
  3. So, at the start and end of nearly a 10 year time period, the home price index for Oregon will be virtually the same. That's a Wow, and not in a good way.
  4. Oregon housing starts for the 4th quarters in 2011 (-4.2%) and 2012 (-8.3%) in the May Forecast are also down significantly from the February Forecast. US Housing starts for same periods are also down, by 8.7% and 3.2%).
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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