Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Foothills: Current and Projected Land Values Need More Transparency and Updating.

In looking through Foothills related materials it occurred to me that there was little or no data to show 
  1. Current land values.
  2. How land values were projected to change.  
Significantly increased land values resulting from formation of an urban renewal district and zoning changes could provide a private source of financing for affordable housing (instead of just relying on public subsidies). It seems therefore important for the public and decision makers to know how much the value of land is projected to change as a result of these discretionary city actions.

The PDF document HERE includes my calculation that there has been a 19% DECLINE in RMV land values for 5 properties in Phase 1A of the Foothills Plan from the RMV land values  shown for those properties in prior Framework Plan Appendix B-1. (I do not see ANY discussion about RMV land changes/declines in the Revised Framework Plan from the RMV's land values found in the original Framework Plan and there are no proposed changes to update the data in Appendix B-1).

In this PDF document you will also see MY calculation using data from a April 2012 Johnson Reid market assumptions memo that would result in an estimate of future land value at more than $4 million per acre IF land were developed as 
  1. Market rate apartments at $2 a sq. ft 
  2. Using Type V podium construction.
To be clear, I do NOT believe this is an accurate number, but the graph in page 4 of the assumptions memo DOES indicate a residual land value of $110 per sq.ft using these two market assumptions (and there are 43,560 sq ft in an acre). Also, there is simply NO OTHER public estimate anywhere that shows a projected per acre value for land developed as apartments using the market assumptions from this memo.

Valuation issues were/are a big problem at the Lake Oswego purchased West End Building and getting clarity about current and projected land values would be a very prudent step. In the last page of the PDF I make several recommendations to increase land value transparency  and also include several IMPORTANT caveats about these preliminary land value estimates and calculations.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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