Portland Metro Supportive Housing Needs: Some Alternative Calculations and Comparison to Current Voucher Counts and Funding.

One of the key inputs into Portland metro consideration of a homeless tax is the need for supportive housing.

A 2019 PSU study on homelessness HERE projected a need for 4,936 supportive housing units. 

I went back and re-calculated that need using the PSU calculation formula but excluding doubled up individuals/students and using the HUD point in time count for 2019. (The PSU report used 2017 PIT data, supplemented with other homeless data).

The PDF file HERE embedded below shows those calculations for three scenarios and includes hyperlinks to the data sources. Note that all scenarios:

• Provide supportive housing for 90% of the chronically homeless,
• Provide supportive housing for 10% of all homeless, and 
• Provide additional units for those those who are returning to supportive housing after previously leaving it. 

Since the count of chronic homeless is readily available from the PIT count the biggest variable in calculating supportive housing need is the total homeless count. 

The lowest estimate for supportive housing need rely on the PIT count as a base while higher need estimates add to the HUD PIT count and expand the universe of who needs rental assistance to include doubled up individuals/students.

(Pages 68-71 of the PSU report summarizes their method of need calculation).
 
Needed Supportive Unit Count and Percentage Differences with Different Inputs
Using updated 2019 point in time data and excluding just doubled up individuals/students yields a need that is 35% (1,730 units) to 54% (2,642 units) BELOW the 4,936 units found in the PSU report:

1. Using HUD published 2019 point in time data yielded the smallest need, 2,293 units, 54% below the PSU base case estimate.
2. Using a Metro February 18, 2020 memo reported 2019 PIT count point table yields a need for 2,535 units, 49% below the PSU base case estimate.
3. And finally using PSU‘s data but excluding 19,840 doubled up individuals yields a need for 3,206 units, 35% below the PSU base case estimate.

Reduced Projected Need Costs Using Different Inputs
I applied the unit percentage difference from the base PSU case to arrive at the cost reductions for the three different scenarios. This resulted in costs that were $41.7 M to $63.7M less than the PSU base case estimate: 

1. Using HUD's published 2019 point in time data yields a need for $55.2 M. That's $63.7M below the PSU base case need.
2. Using a Metro February 18, 2020 memo reported 2019 PIT count yields a need  for $61.1 M, That's $57.8M below the PSU base case need.
3.  And finally using PSU‘s data , but excluding 19,840 doubled up individuals, yields a need for $77.3M. That's $41.7M below the PSU base case need.
   

Note: 

A CSH analysis projected supportive housing needs for 3,123 units. That's still more than projected need in these three alternative scenarios. However if the CSH data was updated to 2019 PIT HUD data I think it is likely that it would be closer to the 2,393 units I projected in my lowest need scenario. 

Funding Remaining for 5,600 to 11,900 Additional Rent Assisted Units if Tax Collection Goal is $175 Million
According to the Metro analysis 5,000 non SH rental assistance units would cost $50M ($10,000 per unit). 

If the tax collection goal is $175 million there would remaining additional amounts available for rental assistance from all of these scenarios. Adding those units to the supportive housing units for these scenarios yields these results:

• $56M additional, using the PSU base case. (5,601 rent assisted units, total of 10,536 units).
• $119M additional using the updated 2019 HUD point in time data. (11,971 rent assisted units, a total of 14,264 units).
• $113M additional using the Metro Feb 18,2020 reported PIT count.(11,387 rent assisted units, a total of 13,923 units).
• $97M using the PSU base case, less doubled up individuals.(9,771 rent assisted units, a total of 12,977 units).

Comparison to Housing Vouchers in 3 County Area
My estimate is that there are 13,500 voucher units in these three counties as of September 2019. This does NOT include additional VASH vouchers--a key supportive housing tool- that are already authorized but not in use.

Adding 5,600 to 11,900 additional rent assisted units and a total of 10,536 to 14,264 assisted units (adding the supportive housing units) would be a significant boost. 

In FY 2018 HUD obligations for the housing voucher program in these three counties was $137 million so an additional $175 million in annual Metro funding for housing would also be a significant boost.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.