Oregon Regular and Workshare Continued Claims Decreased in May by 17% with 52K Fewer Continued Claims.

Oregon regular and workshare continued unemployment claims declined by 17% /52,230 claims from the May 5 report (308,989) to the May 30th report (256,759).  [See graph pasted below for counts for all weeks in May; continued claim counts do NOT include PUA counts which Oregon has yet to report]. 

A decline of this magnitude is not inconsequential. 

IF the average weekly benefit amount is $1,000 (with the $600 supplement through July 25th) then a 52,230 weekly continuing claim reduction means a reduction of UI benefits of $52.3M a WEEK or a total of $417.8M if the decline was sustained for 8 weeks.

However, the Direction or Speed of Change in Continued Claims Filed Could Shift for a Variety of Reasons:

• Initial regular claims processing backlogs may finally be working their way through the system and covert to continued claims.
• Some regular claims may have been denied but may now be filed as PUA claims (which are NOT reflected in these counts).
• The beginning of an extended benefit period in May could lead to additional increases if claims are extended or reinstated.
• PPP related job recalls may take longer because new legislation extends the rehire window from eight weeks to 24 weeks.
• The COVID-19 infection rate could increase with recent reopenings, causing a return to more social distancing and renewed continuing claims.
• Workshare approvals could increase through July as a tool to reduce local government expenses this fiscal year (but could also decline after that if the $600 UI supplement is not renewed).
• Budget related government layoffs in the iscal year starting in July could boost initial claims and then continued claims.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.