Initial Regular UI Claims in July Could See Big Boost in Minimum and Maximum Weekly Benefit Amounts.

Oregon's minimum weekly benefit amount (WBA) for regular unemployment insurance is set at 15% of average weekly wage for the preceding year, and the maximum WBA is set at 64%  (The latest March 2021 quarterly data showed that 26% of the 49,709 regular claims that established eligibility were at the maximum WBA; I have not yet been able to locate data showing the percentage where eligibility was established that were at the minimum WBA).

These min/max limits are adjusted annually in July, for regular insurance new claims. This year the new min/max regular WBA will be effective for claims filed on or after July 4th. 

I Anticipate a Big Boost this Year

I think it is likely that the min/max WBA boost this year will be the largest in at least a decade. Here's why:

Oregon’s employment department qualityinfo.org website currently shows a 8.9%/$94 increase in average weekly wages from 2019 to 2020, from $1,058 to $1,152. (Annual average weekly wages of [2019] $55,019 and [2020] $59,918). 

IF that same percentage rate of increase was applied to the 2020 minimum and maximum regular UI weekly benefit amounts that would mean a min/max yearly increase of $13/$59 and 8.3%/8.8% to $170/$732 for new claims in July 2021. 

Note that min/max WBA does NOT include the FPUC (currently $300 ) extra payment through August, .

The min/max weekly regular UI increase from 2019-2020 was $6/$25 and 4%/3.9% to $157/$673. 

Note that these min/max weekly benefit amounts would only be in effect for NEW claims filed on or after July 4 and do NOT apply to the pandemic programs, PUA and PEUC, or to the EB program.

Note also that the current $300 FPUC, now set to end in early September, adds 26% to the wages replaced at the minimum/maximum WBA levels ($300/average weekly wage of $1,152=26%). For this short period (unless extended) this boosts the post July 4th+ minimum WBA to 41% of average weekly wage and the maximum WBA to 90% of the average weekly wage. 

CHART: Yearly MAX UI Regular Insurance Changes 2010-2021 Projected

The chart pasted below is MY calculation of projected annual % and $ yearly changes in the MAX WBA from 2010 to my projected 2021 estimate. 

Both the 8.8 % and $59 yearly increases I project for July 2021 are substantially more than the previous highest yearly increase of 5.1%/$26 that occurred in 2013. 

Need for clarity in upcoming OED May press release
An OED press release in May will likely announce the official new minimum/ maximum weekly UI WBA's  for claims that start on or after July 4. 

Those OFFICIAL WBA's could vary from MY projections if OED uses different data or different rounding conventions than I did to calculate the minimum/maximum WBA.

In any case I hope the release 

• Is clear about the data source and methods used and that OED “shows their work” in their release.
• Includes a clear explanation and a decision table/graphics showing the min/max WBA for all programs, including Regular, PUA, and PEUC claims. There are a lot of moving parts and narrative explanations alone can be confusing. 

For example filing on or after July 4th instead of late June may result in a significant increase in WBA IF the claimant is at either at the min or max WBA level. Using my projections, a filing on or after July 4 (at the new max WBA) would result in $1,534 in additional UI benefits over 26 weeks vs an initial filing in late June. 

Also, IF there are any new PUA claims on or after July 4, their minimum WBA may be different/higher than the new regular minimum PUA of $170. (The current minimum PUA WBA is about 1/3rd higher than regular insurance, $205 vs. $157).

Decrease in Min/Max WBA in 2020 is Possible
The substantial average wage increase in 2020 is likely tied to the disproportionate reduction of lower wage jobs during the pandemic as detailed in this Oregon Office of Economic Analysis HERE. 

If those lower wage jobs return during 2021 it’s conceivable that CY 2021 average wages will either level off or decrease, which could then result in a reduction in min/max regular WBA for new claims filed in July 2022.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.