My April Projected Increase in HUD Portland Metro Median Family Income for FY 2022: Increase of 3.6% to $100, 400.

Back in February 2020, I did a projection of HUD Portland Median Family Income in which I described the methodology used to do the calculation. My estimate of $92,100 matched the HUD MFI published estimate a couple of months later. 

To calculate MFI HUD compares the CBO projections of CPI for the current FISCAL YEAR to the projection of the CPI for the CALENDAR year from three years prior  That ratio is then multiplied by the ACS median family income from 3 years ago. 

So to calculate the HUD MFI for FY 2022 the I attempted to replicate my prior process and used this step by step process. 

CBO FISCAL YEAR 2022 CPI projection DIVIDED by 

CBO CALENDAR YEAR 2019 CPI projection 

MULTIPLIED by  ACS 2019 Median Family Income (I used 1 year ACS, some areas may have to use 5 year ACS)

EQUALS Initial FY 2022 Median Family Income

ROUND  the calculated FY 2022 MFI  to nearest $100

EQUALS Final FY 2022 Median Family Income

CBO Estimates May Not be Up to Date

One of complicating factors is finding the CBO CPI projections and determining which factors to use. 

The 10 year economic projections from CBO are located on this page, and the most recent publication date is July of 2021. 

I used that source, but it seems odd that there is no more recent projection and if there is one it is possible that HUD could use more recent CBO estimates. If so, given the reported increase in inflation I would expect my current estimate to be LOWER than estimates calculated using more recent inflation data. 

It's also possible that HUD could change the median family income methodology that it uses, but that seems unlikely. 

Using that July 2021 CBO estimate and the 1 year 2019 ACS median family income this is MY estimate of what the Portland Metro HUD FY 2022 Median Family Income will look like. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.