FHFA Data: Oregon Had 20th Highest Serious Delinquency Rate, But Below National Average.

Using newly released data I have prepared and uploaded to my SkyDrive a state level summary of FHFA foreclosure information in Excel HERE and embedded below: 



FHFA PR is HERE. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

FHFA Posts GSE CY 2011 Census Tract Level Data as MS Access Database.

You can download newly posted CY 2011 GSE single family census tract level MS Access database HERE (it is 246 MB's and will take LOTS of PC power so I wouldn't download and try to open unless you have lots of RAM and computing power).  

Main page for FHFA public disclosures is HERE.

Readers will recall getting FHFA to post this database in MS Access format was one of rare occasions where outcome was exactly what I was hoping, in no small measure thanks to follow up from Will White, Senior Advisor to Senator Merkley. I'm very pleased that FHFA posted CY 2011 GSE CT level data in this format with need for prompting.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

FHFA Data Shows HARP Refinances Above 105% LTV Are Increasing; Oregon and All State Data Available in Excel.

FHFA PR is HERE. From the PR I have constructed an Excel workbook in my public Excel SkyDrive that shows refinance and HARP activity by state, with a detailed breakout of Oregon data.  

Direct link to the Excel file is HERE and it is embedded below. (Worksheet with detailed Oregon data displayed by default; data for all states and link to data source are included in other worksheets in the workbook).

Some Oregon Observations

1. The percent of HARP loans that went to borrowers at LTV 105% and above was 28% in March compared to 10% since the start of HARP in April of 2009.
2. In March there were 515 HARP refinances with LTV above 105%; that is nearly half of the 1,044 HARP refinances with LTV above 105% so far this year and more than 1/6th of ALL HARP refinances above 105% since the inception of the program in April 2009.
3. Total FHFA refinances in March were 8,133; there were 19,252 FHFA refinances so far this year

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Success! FHFA Posts Annual GSE SF Data In MS Access Format for the First Time.

Sometimes at HUD and writing this blog it has felt like I "plow the ocean", doing a lot but never quite sure what progress I've made. 

Fortunately, there are a few times when the results of my work are exactly what I hoped they would be.

I am VERY pleased to report that with critical help from Senator Merkley's Senior Advisor Will White, FHFA has agreed to post, for the FIRST time, their annual single family loan level database in MS Access format. 

This is a step that can greatly increase public understanding of who benefits geographically and demographically from GSE single family lending and I think is a proverbial "Win-Win" for all involved. 

(Readers will recall that, with the help of my friend and fellow HUD Oregon Field Office Director retiree Roberta Ando, I was able to put together a MS Access database of GSE CY 2010 loans and a series of related "Picture of GSE Assisted Households, CY 2010 " reports to demonstrate the value of getting GSE SF data into a MS Access format). 

The FHFA CY 2010 GSE MS Access database (4.8+ million records) is already posted on their website HERE (look under "Single Family Census Tract File"). 

FHFA has also committed to posting the GSE CY 2011 database in MS Access format in September of this year.  

Thanks much to Will, Senator Merkley, Roberta, and to FHFA staff for their help and responsiveness in making this important information more transparent to the public. 

Before You Download the MS Database......
My prior caveat that you have a PC capable of dealing with a LARGE database remains.  FHFA has combined both Fannie and Freddie data into a file that expands to 1.6 GB MS Access file when unzipped, so you WILL need a PC with a fast processor and LOTS of memory to work with this file. 

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

Fannie and Freddie Present Evidence to Regulator that Foreclosure Related Principal Reductions Work.

ProPublica story is HERE.

New analyses by mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have added an explosive new dimension to one of the most politically charged debates about the housing crisis: Whether to reduce the amount of money beleaguered homeowners owe on their mortgages.

Their conclusion: Such loan forgiveness wouldn’t just help keep hundreds of thousands of families in their homes, it would also save Freddie and Fannie money. That, in turn, would help taxpayers, who bailed out the companies at a cost of more than $150 billion and are still on the hook for future losses.

The analyses, which have not been made public, were recently presented to the agency that controls the companies, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

FHFA Releases State Level HAMP Data and Loan Counts; I Calculate that 18% of GSE Loans in Oregon Were Acquired During CY 2010.

Map can be found HERE, clicking on a state reveals a summary table for that state; Oregon summary is pasted below as an image:

Click to Enlarge

Related Foreclosure Prevention PDF report is HERE. State level data is available in tables on PDF pages 45-53.

Note: FHFA says there were 465,707 GSE loans statewide in Oregon at the end of December 2011; the MS Excel loan GSE Oregon CY 2010 loan level report contained in my prior post HERE indicates that the GSE's purchased 84,289 Oregon loans in just CY 2010; that's a one year production of 18.1% of the total GSE loans outstanding at the end of CY 2011.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

1st Data Tables Created Using New GSE CY 2010 Database: State Distribution of $1 TRILLION in GSE Single Family Loan Acquisitions.

I am pleased to note that with the significant assistance from my friend Roberta Ando (also a retired HUD Oregon Field Office Director) I have been able to create the first national MS Access databases for ALL single family loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during CY 2010, down to the census tract level. 

These databases form a new home owner/buyer focused" Picture of GSE Assisted Households" very similar to the periodic HUD Picture of Subsidized Households database and can be updated annually (more about that below).

Each of the 4.8 million loan level records in the databases contain 39 fields of data, so there are more than 187 million pieces of data in these two databases.(The original data came from FHFA in text files and required many, many tweaks and lots of computing power to get it into useable MS Access formats).
 

Unlike HMDA Data, These New GSE SF Databases Cover the Entire Country, NOT Just Metro Areas
 
Unlike HMDA data, these newly created databases cover the entire country and NOT just metropolitan areas; they also include a first time home buyer field not found in HMDA. A complete list of data elements in the database can be found HERE.

Future Plans


I will be releasing additional analysis of the GSE 2010 data in the coming days and weeks and am shopping for a national home to make these large Fannie and Freddie MS Access databases available for download and analysis by others. 

Because the GSE data is now in MS Access format, users can filter records and export files to MS Excel for further analysis or use database tools in Excel to directly query the MS Access databases. 


Maps Possible Too
Some users may also choose to convert the data tables they create into maps to help illustrate the geographic location of GSE loan purchases; for example, a map by state, metro area, county, or census tract of all GSE Hispanic first time home buyer loan counts and dollars.

Updating Annually Possible IF FHFA Cooperates
I will also be following up to encourage greater transparency from FHFA to make this annual public database available in MS Access formats so that the public can actually see who is benefiting from these loans [FHFA currently releases data in text form ONLY]. 

While I am pleased that Roberta and I have been able to put together these databases this year, there is no reason why FHFA should not be expected to post these databases in MS Access format annually.


All PDF tables I create from these databases will be available in a link in the right pane, Picture of GSE Assisted Households, CY 2010.

Today's First Analysis: 
State Distribution by Loan Counts and Shares of $1 Trillion in Loan Acquisitions for 4.8 Million Households

The two tables in the Picture of GSE Assisted Households, CY 2010 PDF file HERE show:

• Table 1: An alpha listing by state for Fannie, Freddie and both GSE's showing both loan counts and loan $$ [unpaid principal amount of the loans at the time they were purchased by the GSE's].
• Table 2: A sorted state listing of the highest to lowest shares/%'s of the total national loan counts.

Two Observations From Tables 1 and 2:

• Five States (California, Illinois,Texas, New York, Florida) Accounted for 40% of CY 2010 GSE Loan $$ and 34% of all GSE SF Loans; 
• Oregon Had $17 Billion in GSE Loans to 84,000 Families, 1.7% of the national GSE Loan $$
  

 Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

New National Info on Fannie/Freddie Loan Peformance.

PR from FHFA is HERE. Example:

Performance. Roughly 5 percent of Enterprise-acquired, fixed-rate mortgages and 10 percent of Enterprise-acquired ARMs were over 90 days delinquent at some point before the end of 2009. Roughly 20 percent of fixed-rate mortgages and 30 percent of ARMs financed with private-label MBS were over 90-days delinquent at some point before year-end 2009.

Lots of data tables in Excel HERE. However, it does not appear there is any geo specific data.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog

FHFA New SF and MF Goals for Fannie, Freddie.

PR is HERE; Final Rule is HERE. 

SF goals summarized as:

• 27 percent for the low-income home purchase goal;
• 8 percent for the very low-income family home purchase goal;
• A percentage to be set annually by FHFA for the low-income/high minority/disaster areas home purchase goal (with a subgoal of 13 percent to measure acquisitions in low-income/high minority areas only); and
• 21 percent for the low-income family refinance goal.

MF goals summarized as:

• Fannie Mae’ s goal is to acquire mortgages that finance at least 177,750 low-income rental units and 42,750 very low-income rental units.
• Freddie Mac’s goal is to acquire mortgages that finance at least 161,250 low-income rental units and 21,000 very low-income rental units.
• The Enterprises must also report on their acquisition of mortgages involving low-income units in small (5- to 50-unit) multifamily properties.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

FHFA Publishes Notice of New Order for GSE SF Public Use Database.

Today's Federal Register has a FHFA "Notice of Order" HERE that revises the required data elements for the GSE SF (and MF) public use databases. (My prior post about delay in release of these databases is HERE).

The revision incorporates statutory changes [Sections 1126/1127] made by the 2008 Housing and Economic Recovery Act. Those changes require publication of data for the proceeding year NLT September 30th of the following year and incorporation of HMDA compliant data elements.

Thanks to Will White, Senator Merkley's Senior Advisor, I was able to confirm that FHFA plans to publish the 2008 GSE public use SF database by the end of July , and publish the 2009 GSE SF public use database by the required Sept 30 statutory deadline. This schedule would mean that the publication of the 2008 data is 10 months after the deadline for statutory compliance.  Public release is expected to meet the deadline for 2009 and subsequent years. (FHFA's web page HERE will be updated once these databases become available to the public; let's hope that the format for these databases are user friendly)

The GSE SF public use loan level database is more robust that the HMDA SF database because it includes rural areas, AND a first time home buyer data indicator. Coupled with minority status data elements, this allows identification of loans to minority first time home buyers, which then allows the tracking of progress toward the goal of increasing minority home ownership rates.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

FHFA Incredibly Slow in Releasing GSE SF Loan Level Data for 2008 and 2009.

HMDA data for 2008 was released (PR HERE) by the FFEIC in September 2009, one of the slowest releases of that data for  years.

However, FHFA, the agency charged with regulating Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is making FFIEC look like speed demons. 

FHFA took over responsibility from HUD for releasing GSE SF loan level data for the GSE's for 2008 and later years. (Like HMDA, GSE loan level SF data is available down to the census tract level, AND includes not only minority household status but also first time home buyer status [which HMDA does not include].

As of July 2010, 19 months after the end of CY 2008, FHFA has still not released 2008 loan level GSE SF loan level data. 

Further, email correspondence with FHFA indicates that 2008 GSE loan level data may not be released until September at the earliest---21 months after the end of the calendar year AND around the time I would expect that 2009 HMDA data will be released by FFIEC (I.E., FHFA GSE data will be a year behind the already slow HMDA data).

Editorial comment: With loan volumes at reduced levels, and with public interest in GSE performance at high levels since the public now OWNS the GSE's, it is amazing to me that FHFA has not been held MORE accountable for the timely release of  GSE loan level SF data.(Such a lack of attention to timely release also does not bode well for the two NEW loan level databases that the housing finance reform bill would require; see my prior post HERE).

FHFA's web page for GSE loan level data for 2008 and later years is HERE; HUD's web page for ordering 2007 data is HERE.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

FHFA Issues Quarterly House Price Index Change Report for 1st Quarter 2010; Oregon and Bend Have Some of Worst 1YR Changes.

Press release is HERE.

I have pasted Oregon data below.

Notes:

1. Oregon was ranked 46th in yearly price decline, only 5 other states had LARGER declines. [State index uses purchases only]
2. Bend had the LARGEST 1 YEAR metro price decline in the country. {Metro index uses both purchase and refinancing transactions].

 

	1 Year Ranking	1 YR	1 QTR	5 YR
USA	-	-3.07	-1.9	-2.85
Oregon (OR)	46	-8.64	-2.72	7.35
Bend, OR	301	-23.03	-4	-7.75
Corvallis, OR	100	-4.01	-1.82	24.25
Eugene-Springfield, OR	220	-8.38	-0.99	16.92
Medford, OR	287	-14.59	-2.25	-
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA	235	-9.68	-1.55	15.07
Salem, OR	243	-10.09	-1.58	16.01

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog. 

FHFA Changes in House Price Index, Oregon Metro Areas.

Data that may be useful in considering Hardest Hit funding allocations and program design.

Data I used is as of 4th Qtr 2009, from FHFA HERE

There are 299 Metro areas nationwide; Rank is from best (largest increase) to worst (smallest increase or largest decline).
Notes:

1. Bend had largest 1 year decline in the country.
2. Only Bend and Medford had 5 year declines.
3. Corvallis had the 8th BEST increase over last 5 years, all but Bend and Medford were in top 55.
   

Metro	1 QTR	1 YR	5 YR	State	1 Qtr Rank	1 YR Rank	5 YR Rank
Corvallis, OR	-0.95	-3.84	29.85	OR	166	162	8
Eugene-Springfield, OR	-2.02	-8.21	21.9	OR	245	246	39
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA	-1.29	-8.67	20.47	OR-WA	202	252	49
Salem, OR	-3.57	-10.55	20.16	OR	278	267	54
Bend, OR	-5.52	-20.55	-0.71	OR	292	299	220
Medford, OR	-3.37	-12.96	-5.45	OR	275	283	235

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

FHFA Publishing Proposed Rule for Comment on New Fannie, Freddie Housing Goals.

Credit to Novogradac for picking this up first.

I checked this AM's Federal Register and doesn't look like formal publication has yet occurred, would advise checking Friday or next Monday's Federal Register. Once I see regulation has been posted I will do new post with link to docket on regulations.gov showing where to make comments.

News Release: Federal Housing Finance Agency Proposes New Housing Goals for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (February 17, 2010)

Advance Copy of Proposed Rule (February 17, 2010)

Technical Appendix to Proposed Rule (February 17, 2010)

FHFA Mortgage Market Note: The Housing Goals of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the Context of the Mortgage Market: 1996–2009 (February 1, 2010)

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Home Price Indices are Out: Portland Still Down.

WSJ story HERE has table by metro area for Case Shiller index. Portland shows 11.8% annual decline, and .5% monthly decline. In a sign that the market has improved in some large market areas, both Los Angeles and Miami show monthly increases.

Oregonian Front Porch Blog story with Portland focus is HERE.

ALSO, new FHFA quarterly index data and report is HERE: (FHFA index includes both purchase and refi loans)

1. Portland annual decline was 8.63% on the FHFA index, while Oregon's was 8.81%.
2. Portland [pg. 37] had the 245th most severe annual decline (out of 297 metro areas)
3. Oregon's decline [pg 15] was the 47th most severe annual decline among states.(Map showing decline by state is on page 16).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Updated: FHFA Seeks Comments on Rules Requiring Fannie and Freddie To Serve Underserved Markets, Including Preservation.

Updated to reflect actual Federal Register publication-link is now to that publication, and page reference was changed to match FR publication.

FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) has posted Federal Register Advance notice of proposed rulemaking and request for comments, seeking comment on how Fannie and Freddie can meet their statutory obligation to serve three underserved
markets.

1. Manufactured housing
2. Affordable housing preservation
3. Rural areas

(Formal Federal Register notice is HERE; there is a 60 day comment period.

As the Notice states:

Section 1335 of the Safety and Soundness Act, as amended, requires the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), beginning in 2010, to establish a manner for: evaluating whether and to what extent the Enterprises have complied with the duty to serve underserved markets; and rating the extent of compliance. To assist FHFA in rulemaking to implement the duty to serve underserved markets, FHFA seeks comment on the characteristics and types of Enterprise transactions and activities that should be considered and how such transactions and activities should be evaluated and rated, for purposes of determining the Enterprises’ performance of the duty to serve underserved markets

Preservation obligations and the comments sought begin on page 3 of the Notice. (Preservation programs include HUD, RD, and Tax Credit programs as well as state and local programs AND perhaps NSP).

FHFA Paper: Brief History of Prior House Declines.

HERE. A couple of conclusions from paper:

1. "First, house price downturns have tended to be long. The median time required to return to prior peak prices was 10½ to 20 years.
2. Second, it tends to take longer for prices to rise from the trough to their former peak than it takes prices to decline from peak to trough. While the difference is small for Census Divisions and states, FHFA’s Metropolitan Statistical Area and Division (MSA) indexes suggest that the time from peak to trough tends to be about 3¾ years, whereas the median recovery period (from trough to prior peak) was 6⅔ years."

FHFA Director Speech to Hispanic, Asian Real Estate Professionals.

Director Lockart speech HERE, includes slides.

OFHEO/FHFA Home Price Index: Portland Decline a LOT Less than Case Shiller Reported Decline; State Index Also Included.

Large national release HERE includes states and some Metro areas, including Portland.

OFHEO/FHFA says Portland metro index (which includes both refinance and purchases) declined by 5.2%, ranking 240th amongst metro areas. (Metro area information starts on page 30 of release).

Note however that the 5.2% Portland FHFA/OFHEO 1 year price index decline (page 39 of the FHFA/OFHEO release) is SUBSTANTIALLY less than than the 13.1% yearly decline for Portland reported by Case Shiller today (my post on Case Shiller index, from earlier this morning, is HERE).

For STATES, I constructed a table HERE that compares states (for states index uses purchase data only, no refinances).

It shows that Oregon ranks 37th in year to year change, and 38th in quarterly change. When looked at over 5 year period however, Oregon ranks 6th best. And since 1991, Oregon ranks 3rd best.

FHFA Director Speech.

As government [that would be "you"] is now stockholder in Fannie and Freddie, some useful mortgage market background from Director of Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) with slides/graphics HERE.

(Wonk alert---It's to a group of government accountants and 29 pages).