Monday, April 20, 2009

"151%" 1st Quarter Oregon Foreclosure Increase is Actually Closer to 400% At Back End of Foreclosure Process.

News stories on Oregon Foreclosure increases in the first quarter have focused on a 151% increase in all foreclosure actions. However, when you dig below that overall increase it becomes apparent that the actual increases in foreclosure actions likely to end up with families losing their homes is MUCH larger.

I have prepared a table HERE that shows a comparison of RealtyTrac reported Oregon foreclosure activity for 1st Quarter 2009 vs 1st Quarter 2008. The table helps identify which of 3 STAGES of foreclosure have increased the most (Stages are Default, Auction, and Transfer).

Looking at the table you will see that by FAR the greatest increases have been in the Auction phase/trustee sale notice (an increase of 406%) and in the Tranfer/REO phases (an increase of 390%) of foreclosure. These two phases clearly represent the phases of foreclosure where it is most likely that homeowners will end up losing their homes.

In contrast Default notices--the start of the foreclosure process-- have increased only slightly (16%) compared to the same quarter of last year.

To help put the foreclosure data in a concrete daily frame of reference, I also added a calculation showing changes in daily activity in the three phases:
  1. Notices of Default : Increased from 30 to 35 a day.
  2. Trustee notices increased from 12 to 61 per day
  3. REO increased from 4 to 21 per day

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