WOW!! FHA Seems Headed for a Record Shattering $4-$5 Billion in SF Loans in Oregon in CY 2009.

Absent a major slowdown I think it is likely that FHA Single Family loan volume in Oregon will blow past the $4 Billion level this calendar year. That volume would be more than ANY other year in the 75 year history of FHA in Oregon. (Viewed from a Recovery timing standpoint, note also that FHA loan $$ represent loans already COMPLETED, not an "obligation" that may takes months or years to actually spend).

1. Purchase and Refi Loan Data YTD: 76% Higher Than Last Year, $2.6 Billion.
Take a look at the table and two graphs I prepared HERE to see FHA loan counts and $$ in Oregon by month during CY 2009 through July.Compared to the prior FHA record year of CY 2008, CY 2009 totals through July are running 76% HIGHER when compared by loan counts, and 83% HIGHER when comparing $$'s:

Comparison	Loan #'s	Dollar $$ Volume
CY 2008 to July	7,150	$1,462,781,960
CY 2009 to July	12,591	$2,679,514,597
# INCREASE, CY 09 vs 08 to July	5,441	$1,216,732,637
% INCREASE CY 09 vs 08 to July	76%	83%

2. HECM Loan Data YTD: 1,900+ Loans, $570 Million in Loan Guarantees.
While I don't have CY 2008 HECM (Home Equity Conversion Mortgages) loan data at hand, I DO have CY 2009 HECM data and that data shows that through July in Oregon there have been 1,916 HECM loans with maximum claim amounts that total $570,894,381.

3. Purchase, Refi, and HECM Summary YTD : 14,500+, $3.2 Billion
Adding items 1 and 2 together, the total for the first 7 months of CY 2009 FHA SF loan activity in Oregon is 14,507 loans with $3,250,408,978 in FHA loan guarantees

4. Extrapolating to Full CY 2009 in Oregon: As High as 24,500+ FHA Loans, $5.5 Billion in Loan Guarantees.
Using the YTD average monthly pace of 2,070+ loans and $464 Million, extrapolation results in a projection of 24,869 loans and $5,572,129,677 in FHA loan guarantees in Oregon for the full CY 2009.

I suspect there will be a end of season slowdown so that final CY numbers will end up shy of these simple extrapolations. I WILL be surprised however if the final CY 2009 number ends up BELOW $4 Billion/21,000 loans.

5. Is FHA SF Spending the LARGEST Non Elderly Federal CY 2009 Spending in Oregon?
After looking at historical data the ONLY two federal programs I can see that likely EXCEED FHA SF spending in Oregon in CY 2009 are both elderly only programs--Medicare and Social Security. (Appears to me that unemployment, medicaid, and TANF are all LESS than Oregon FHA CY 2009 spending).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog