2009 HMDA Oregon Owner Occupied 1-4 Family Summary by County: Home Purchase Loans Were DOWN (Except for FHA) , Refinances WAY Up.

I took a look at the recent Oregon HMDA 2009 data I recently posted (prior post HERE). 

I compared that data with 2008 HMDA data and did a COUNTY and STATE level PDF table HERE that compares data for 2009 and 2008 using these filters: 

1. Loan Originations
2. Owner Occupied
3. 1- 4 family properties 
4. ALL loan sources, with a FHA subtotal.

(Table is formatted as legal to fit all the columns). 

Some observations:

1. Total volume from all sources was up 50%, but this was because refinances were up by 82%, while home purchase loans from all sources declined by 4%.
2. Total volume for FHA was up 55%, because FHA home purchase volume was UP by 60%, while refinances increased by only 50%.
3. Calculating from data on the chart, FHA share of home purchases increased to 39% in 2009 from 23% in 2008; FHA share of refinances declined to 12% in 2009, down from 14% in 2008; FHA share of Purch+Refi increased marginally from 17.6% in 2008 to 18.3% in 2009.
4. More than 3 out of every four (76%) HMDA loans originated in 2009 in Oregon was a REFINANCE. (88,306/116,610). In 2008, refinances represented only 62% of all loans originated (48,454/77,815).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

Details on Oregon CY 2009 FHA SF Loans: $5.7 BILLION + In Private Investment.

Pretty amazing numbers, I'd say; they clearly blow away ANY prior year in 75 year history of FHA single family operations in Oregon.

Note that these are private investment dollars that have been already SPENT, not planned/reserved for future spending.

Four Page PDF I put together and am summarizing for State Housing Council this Friday Jan 21st is HERE.

Document includes statewide totals, totals by loan purpose, comparisons with CY 2008, and county level totals for CY 2009. (My fav is first page in document showing daily, weekly, and monthly loan production).

Can guarantee you won't find anywhere else, I had to sift through/organize 48 different spreadsheets to complete this project. (Blame it on "sisu").

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

WOW!! FHA Seems Headed for a Record Shattering $4-$5 Billion in SF Loans in Oregon in CY 2009.

Absent a major slowdown I think it is likely that FHA Single Family loan volume in Oregon will blow past the $4 Billion level this calendar year. That volume would be more than ANY other year in the 75 year history of FHA in Oregon. (Viewed from a Recovery timing standpoint, note also that FHA loan $$ represent loans already COMPLETED, not an "obligation" that may takes months or years to actually spend).

1. Purchase and Refi Loan Data YTD: 76% Higher Than Last Year, $2.6 Billion.
Take a look at the table and two graphs I prepared HERE to see FHA loan counts and $$ in Oregon by month during CY 2009 through July.Compared to the prior FHA record year of CY 2008, CY 2009 totals through July are running 76% HIGHER when compared by loan counts, and 83% HIGHER when comparing $$'s:

Comparison	Loan #'s	Dollar $$ Volume
CY 2008 to July	7,150	$1,462,781,960
CY 2009 to July	12,591	$2,679,514,597
# INCREASE, CY 09 vs 08 to July	5,441	$1,216,732,637
% INCREASE CY 09 vs 08 to July	76%	83%

2. HECM Loan Data YTD: 1,900+ Loans, $570 Million in Loan Guarantees.
While I don't have CY 2008 HECM (Home Equity Conversion Mortgages) loan data at hand, I DO have CY 2009 HECM data and that data shows that through July in Oregon there have been 1,916 HECM loans with maximum claim amounts that total $570,894,381.

3. Purchase, Refi, and HECM Summary YTD : 14,500+, $3.2 Billion
Adding items 1 and 2 together, the total for the first 7 months of CY 2009 FHA SF loan activity in Oregon is 14,507 loans with $3,250,408,978 in FHA loan guarantees

4. Extrapolating to Full CY 2009 in Oregon: As High as 24,500+ FHA Loans, $5.5 Billion in Loan Guarantees.
Using the YTD average monthly pace of 2,070+ loans and $464 Million, extrapolation results in a projection of 24,869 loans and $5,572,129,677 in FHA loan guarantees in Oregon for the full CY 2009.

I suspect there will be a end of season slowdown so that final CY numbers will end up shy of these simple extrapolations. I WILL be surprised however if the final CY 2009 number ends up BELOW $4 Billion/21,000 loans.

5. Is FHA SF Spending the LARGEST Non Elderly Federal CY 2009 Spending in Oregon?
After looking at historical data the ONLY two federal programs I can see that likely EXCEED FHA SF spending in Oregon in CY 2009 are both elderly only programs--Medicare and Social Security. (Appears to me that unemployment, medicaid, and TANF are all LESS than Oregon FHA CY 2009 spending).

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog