Portland Mercury has a story HERE with numbers projecting Bob Stacey will lose because of remaining votes left to count in different counties.
However, when comparing votes counted for Governor vs Metro President, seems clear that UNDER voting is a big issue. I only looked at one county, Multnomah, but given vote totals through Thursday afternoon, there were 73,000 FEWER votes cast for Metro President than for the Governor's race.
Paste in below of the math shows that Stacey would likely picked up another 10,000 net votes in Multnomah County if 73,000 voters had not simply failed to vote for ANYONE for the Metro President. NOTE that under voting in other counties MAY have resulted in more votes for Hughes cancelling out Stacey net increase in Multnomah County; when those under votes in other counties are added to Multnomah under count, seems plausible that 100,000 Metro area voters who actually voted did not vote for ANYONE for the Metro President! [Must be a big disappoint to both candidates to see under voting to such a large extent].
GOV RACE | METRO RACE | |||
191,607 | Kitz | 83,948 | Hughes | 42% |
2,064 | Cord | 112,589 | Stacey | 57% |
2,771 | Wagner | 1,721 | Write In | |
74,584 | Dudley | |||
721 | Write In | |||
271,747 | Total | 198,258 | Total | |
73,489 | Difference Gov vs Metro Ex | |||
41,734 | Share to Stacey | |||
31,117 | Share to Hughes | |||
10,616 | Net Likely Increase for Stacey |
Anyone with a different view?; post it as a comment, pls!
Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.
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