Thursday, November 4, 2010

Why Stacey May Lose--Undervoting for ANYONE for Metro President.

Portland Mercury has a story HERE with numbers projecting Bob Stacey will lose because of remaining votes left to count in different counties. 

However, when comparing votes counted for Governor vs Metro President, seems clear that UNDER voting is a big issue. I only looked at one county, Multnomah, but given vote totals through Thursday afternoon, there were 73,000 FEWER votes cast for Metro President than for the Governor's race.   

Paste in below of the math shows that Stacey would likely picked up another 10,000 net votes in Multnomah County if 73,000 voters had not simply failed to vote for ANYONE for the Metro President. NOTE that under voting in other counties MAY have resulted in more votes for Hughes cancelling out Stacey net increase in Multnomah County; when those under votes in other counties are added to Multnomah under count, seems plausible that 100,000 Metro area voters who actually voted did not vote for ANYONE for the Metro President! [Must be a big disappoint to both candidates to see under voting to such a large extent].

GOV RACE
METRO RACE

191,607 Kitz 83,948 Hughes 42%
2,064 Cord 112,589 Stacey  57%
2,771 Wagner 1,721 Write In
74,584 Dudley
721 Write In
271,747 Total 198,258 Total
73,489 Difference Gov vs Metro Ex
                                  41,734 Share to Stacey
                                  31,117 Share to Hughes
                                  10,616 Net Likely Increase for Stacey

Anyone with a different view?; post it as a comment, pls!

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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