Monday, July 4, 2011

UPDATED: FY 2012 HUD Project Based Section 8 Contractor Awards and Estimates for State/Contractor Location of 1.3+Million Project Based Assisted Units, 22,000+ Projects.

I have done an update, including a revised DRAFT of project and unit counts by state that can be found HERE

I am now satisfied that it is safe to remove the with a grain of salt designation from my prior posts about state changes in HUD Section 8 project based contract administration. I believe the switches I previously posted about WILL in fact happen. 

Further, starting in October I estimate that these new contractors may administer the operation of as many as 1.3 million+ Section 8 units, in 22,000+ projects.

I have prepared a 9 page PDF file HERE with 5 tables that provide detailed information about these new contracts; when you open the file the bookmark pane to the left will allow you to navigate to these individual tables. The tables include:

1.Contract Administrators by State with Some Oddities: This is an alpha listing by state showing the new contract administrator and their state location, an indication whether the contract administrator is in the same state as the project, a count of units and projects, and an indicator whether the contract administrator is a state Housing Finance Agency. Observations/Oddities:  
  • 22 states and the Virgin Islands will NOT have a contractor located in a state administer units within that state. 28 states, Puerto Rico, and DC will have an administrator located in their state administer units within that state.(35 contractors for 53 total areas have been identified).
  • At least 4 administrators will not administer any units within their states. An Ohio contractor will administer units in New York, New Jersey, and Maryland but no units in Ohio. A contractor in Georgia will administer Florida units but not Georgia units while a Florida contractor will administer units in Georgia but not in Florida, A Texas contractor will administer units in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, and New Mexico, but no units in Texas. (A second Texas based contractor will administer  ONLY units within Texas).
  • 25 of the 35 contract administrators are state HFA's (or state housing agencies). However, my back of the envelop calculation indicates that the 10 LOCAL housing agencies chosen as contractors will account for 55% of the units under contract.
2. Listing of 19 States Plus Virgin Islands Without Any Instate Contract Administrators. Observation: This list includes states with relatively large numbers of units like New York, New Jersey, Arizona and Tennessee (list also includes Virgin Islands). Combined these states account for 28% of the estimated unit count. 

3. Listing of 31 States plus DC and Puerto Rico with At Least ONE Contract Administrator. This is a list of 31 states with at least one contractor plus contractors in DC and Puerto Rico. 

4. Unit Ranked Listing of Contract Administrators
This ranking by estimated units shows total estimated units administered by each contract administrator and their share of the estimated total projects and unitsObservations: 7 contractors will administer 50% of the estimated units, and 4 contractors in 2 states will administer 29% of the estimated units.

5. Alpha List of Contractors and Their States. Shows for each of the 35 contractors the state(s) assigned to the contractor with estimated units and projects for each state and a subtotal for each contractor. 

How I Estimated Project and Unit Counts
  1. I downloaded the latest HUD MF Assistance and Section 8 Contracts database HERE and after extraction I copied the two tables into Excel. 
  2. I used a lookup formula to combine fields from the two tables in this database and filtered the combined table to include only active or executed contracts, and excluded service coordinator funding.  
  3. I prepared a pivot table by state showing the count of assisted units for these active/executed contracts. 
  4. I extracted property ids and their states from one table and then eliminated duplicate property IDs (this was necessary as the property ID would be repeated if the property had multiple contracts).
  5. Using this data, I then did a pivot table by state to arrive at an estimated count of active/executed assisted properties by state.
  6. I merged the property count and assisted unit count tables by state.
  7. My estimates are likely higher than the actual number of PBCA contracts as HUD likely has and will continue to self administer some of the assisted projects and units. 
This was a complex project to put together, if you discover any errors please let me know via email or a comment on this post.

Originally created and posted on the Oregon Housing Blog.

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